D. Schneider

Recent and future warm extreme events and high-mountain slope stability

The number of large slope failures in some high-mountain regions such as the European Alps has increased during the past two to three decades. There is concern that recent climate change is driving this increase in slope failures, thus possibly further exacerbating the hazard in the future. Although the effects of a gradual temperature rise on glaciers and permafrost have been extensively studied, the impacts of short-term, unusually warm temperature increases on slope stability in high mountains remain largely unexplored. We describe several large slope failures in rock and ice in recent years in Alaska, New Zealand and the European Alps, and analyse weather patterns in the days and weeks before the failures. Although we did not find one general temperature pattern, all the failures were preceded by unusually warm periods; some happened immediately after temperatures suddenly dropped to freezing. We assessed the frequency of warm extremes in the future by analysing eight regional climate models from the recently completed European Union programme ENSEMBLES for the central Swiss Alps. The models show an increase in the higher frequency of high-temperature events for the period 2001–2050 compared with a 1951–2000 reference period. Warm events lasting 5, 10 and 30 days are projected to increase by about 1.5–4 times by 2050 and in some models by up to 10 times. Warm extremes can trigger large landslides in temperature-sensitive high mountains by enhancing the production of water by melt of snow and ice, and by rapid thaw. Although these processes reduce slope strength, they must be considered within the local geological, glaciological and topographic context of a slope.

Numerical modeling of the Mount Steller landslide flow history and of the generated long period seismic waves

The rock-ice avalanche that occurred in 2005 on Mount Steller, Alaska and the resulting long period seismic waves have been simulated for different avalanche scenarios (i.e., flow histories), with and without erosion processes taken into account. This 40-60 Mm3 avalanche traveled about 10 km down the slope, mainly on top of a glacier, eroding a significant amount of ice. It was recorded by 7 broadband seismic stations. The simulations were compared with the recorded long period seismic signal and with the inverted flow history. The results show that, when erosion processes are taken into account, the simulations reproduce the observed signal at all the stations over a wide range of azimuths and source-station distances (37-623 km). This comparison makes it possible to constrain the rheological parameters involved which should help constrain the volume of eroded material. Because landslides are continuously recorded by seismic networks, this method could significantly broaden quantitative insights into natural flow dynamics.

Detecting Potential Climate Signals in Large Slope Failures in Cold Mountain Regions

Concern and interest are rising that climate change may have an adverse impact on slope stability in mountain regions. Rock slopes in high mountain areas with glaciers and permafrost are particularly sensitive to atmospheric warming. In fact, several large rock slope failures have been observed in high mountain areas around the world in recent years. However, the detection of changes in the frequency or magnitude of such slope failures is fraught with a number of difficulties and has only recently been addressed. Here we outline several approaches that could be used to detect a change in high mountain slope failure activity. Rather than present research results, we provide a conceptual design of how research in this field could be strengthened.