D. Wayne Osgood

Changes in Children’s Self-Competence and Values: Gender and Domain Differences across Grades One through Twelve

This study extended previous research on changes in childrens self-beliefs by documenting domain-specific growth trajectories for 761 children across grades 1 through 12 in a longitudinal study of perceptions of self-competence and task values. Hierarchical Linear Modeling was used to (1) describe changes in beliefs across childhood and adolescence within the domains of mathematics, language arts, and sports; (2) examine the impact of changes in competence beliefs on changes in values over time in the same domains; and (3) describe gender differences in mean levels and trajectories of change in competence beliefs and values. The most striking finding across all domains was that self-perceptions of competence and subjective task values declined as children got older, although the extent and rate of decline varied across domains. For example, in language arts, competence beliefs declined rapidly during the elementary school years, but then leveled off or increased to some extent; whereas the decline in self-competence beliefs in sports accelerated during the high school years. Significant gender differences in beliefs were found in most domains; however, the gender differences in developmental trajectories appeared to be domain specific rather than global. Importantly, the gender differences between boys and girls did not systematically increase with age, as predicted by some socialization perspectives. Adding competence beliefs as an explanatory variable to the model for task values revealed that changes in competence beliefs accounted for much of the age-related decline in task values. In addition, competence beliefs accounted for most of the gender differences in task values for language arts and sports.

CRIMINAL CAREERS IN THE SHORT-TERM: INTRA-INDIVIDUAL VARIABILITY IN CRIME AND ITS RELATION TO LOCAL LIFE CIRCUMSTANCES*

We analyze month-to-month variations in offending and life circumstances of convicted felons to understand change in criminal behavior. We extend previous applications of social control theory by considering whether local life circumstances that strengthen or weaken social bonds influence offending over relatively short periods of time. We seek to determine whether formal and informal mechanisms of social control affect the likelihood of committing nine major felonies. We employ a hierarchical linear model that provides a within-individual analysis as we explore factors that determine the pattern of offending. The results suggest that meaningful short-term change in involvement in crime is strongly related to variation in local life circumstances. (Abstract Adapted from Source: American Sociological Review, 1995. Copyright

Poisson-Based Regression Analysis of Aggregate Crime Rates

This article introduces the use of regression models based on the Poissondistribution as a tool for resolving common problems in analyzing aggregatecrime rates. When the population size of an aggregate unit is small relativeto the offense rate, crime rates must be computed from a small number ofoffenses. Such data are ill-suited to least-squares analysis. Poisson-basedregression models of counts of offenses are preferable because they arebuilt on assumptions about error distributions that are consistent withthe nature of event counts. A simple elaboration transforms the Poissonmodel of offense counts to a model of per capita offense rates. Todemonstrate the use and advantages of this method, this article presentsanalyses of juvenile arrest rates for robbery in 264 nonmetropolitancounties in four states. The negative binomial variant of Poisson regressioneffectively resolved difficulties that arise in ordinary least-squaresanalyses.

The Generality of Deviance in Late Adolescence and Early Adulthood.

Because a wide variety of deviant behaviors are positively correlated with one another, some researchers conclude that all are manifestations of a single general tendency. The present analysis incorporated three waves of self-reports about heavy alcohol use, marijuana use, use of other illicit drugs, dangerous driving, and other criminal behavior for a nationally representative sample of high school seniors. A relatively stable general involvement in deviance accounted for virtually all association between different types of deviance, but the stability of each behavior could only be explained by equally important and stable specific influences. Thus, theories that treat different deviant behaviors as alternative manifestations of a single general tendency can account for some, but far from all, of the meaningful variance in these behaviors. The only significant influence of one type of deviance on another was that of marijuana use on later use of other illicit drugs. The causal model also revealed interpretable shifts in the associations among these behaviors over the four years following high school.

Analyzing Multiple-Item Measures of Crime and Deviance I: Item Response Theory Scaling

Multiple-item measures of self-reported offending typically provide the principal outcome measures for individual level research on the causes of crime and deviance. This article directs attention to the substantial problems presented by the task of forming composite scores for these measures, and it presents a possible solution to those problems. We consider scaling by means of the graded response model from item response theory (IRT) as a potential means of overcoming the shortcomings of traditional summative scaling and of obtaining valuable information about the strengths and weaknesses of our measures. We illustrate this strategy through a scale analysis of a fourteen-item, self-report measure of delinquency, using three years of data from the Monitoring the Future study, an annual national survey of high school seniors. The graded response model proves to be consistent with the data, and it provides results that address important substantive questions about self-report measures. The findings are informative about the strengths and weaknesses of alternative strategies for developing self-report instruments, indicating that there is little to be gained by making fine distinctions in the frequency of individual delinquent acts.

Longitudinal linkages between sibling relationships and adjustment from middle childhood through adolescence.

The links between changes in sibling conflict and intimacy and changes in perceived peer social competence and depression symptoms were examined from middle childhood through adolescence. Participants were mothers, fathers and first- and second-born siblings from 197 White, working/middle class, two-parent families. Peer competence peaked in early adolescence and then declined; depression symptoms were high in middle childhood and, for girls, in middle adolescence. Controlling for parent-offspring relationships and sibling and parent adjustment, increases in sibling conflict were linked to increases in depression symptoms, and increases in sibling intimacy were linked to increases in peer competence and, for girls, decreases in depression symptoms.

Analyzing multiple-item measures of crime and deviance II: Tobit regression analysis of transformed scores.

The purpose of this article is to inform criminological researchers about tobit regression, an alternative regression model that deserves more attention in this field. Tobit regression is intended for continuous data that are censored, or bounded at a limiting value. The tobit model may be a particularly good match to measures of self-reported offending, provided they have been transformed to reduce skewness. We present empirical analyses that evaluate the match of self-report measures to the assumptions of ordinary least square (OLS) and tobit regression models and that assess the consequences of any violations of assumptions. The analyses use a fourteen-item, self-report measure of delinquency from the Monitoring the Future study, a national survey of high school seniors. These analyses provide clear evidence that (1) transformations to reduce skewness improve the match of OLS to the data but still leave considerable discrepancies, and (2) the tobit model is well suited to the transformed measure. We conclude by assessing the purposes for which tobit offers greater and smaller advantages over OLS regression.

Examining Trends in Adolescent Environmental Attitudes, Beliefs, and Behaviors Across Three Decades

Since the Environmental Movement began, adolescents’ views have been largely ignored in studies of public opinion. The article presents a descriptive analysis of trends in the environmental attitudes, beliefs, and behaviors of high school seniors from 1976 to 2005 using data from the Monitoring the Future study. Across a range of indicators, environmental concerns of adolescents show increases during the early 1990s and declines across the remainder of the three decades. Declining trends in reports of personal responsibility for the environment, conservation behaviors, and the belief that resources are scarce are particularly noteworthy. Across all years, findings reveal that youth tended to assign responsibility for the environment to the government and consumers rather than accepting personal responsibility. Recent declines in environmental concerns for this nationally representative sample of youth signal the need for a renewed focus on young people’s views and call for better environmental education and governmental leadership.

Gang Resistance Education and Training (GREAT): Results from the National Evaluation

Although youth delinquent gangs have received considerable academic and media attention during the past decade, there has been a paucity of research evaluating prevention and intervention programs. In this article, the authors report the results of the National Evaluation of the Gang Resistance Education and Training (GREAT) program, a school-based gang prevention program in which uniformed law enforcement officers teach a nine-week curriculum to middle-school students. Results from a survey of 5,935 eighth-grade students in 11 sites indicate that students completing the program had more prosocial attitudes and lower rates of some types of delinquent behavior than did students in the comparison group. Although the evaluation is limited to a cross-sectional design without random assignment, it gains internal validity from a low rate of sample attrition and from comparable treatment and comparison groups. The geographically dispersed and demographically diverse research sites support the external validity of the study as well.

The effect of the Safer Bars programme on physical aggression in bars: results of a randomized controlled trial

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effectiveness of Safer Bars, an intervention to reduce aggression in bars. A total of 734 pre - post-intervention observations were conducted by trained observers on Friday and Saturday nights between midnight and 2 a.m. in 18 large capacity ( > 300) Toronto bars and clubs assigned randomly to receive the intervention (69% participation rate of the 26 assigned) and 12 control bars. As part of the intervention, owners/managers completed the risk assessment workbook to identify ways of reducing environmental risks, and 373 staff and owners/managers (84% participation rate) attended a 3-hour training session focused on preventing escalation of aggression, working as a team and resolving problem situations safely. The main outcome measures were rates of severe aggression (e.g. punching, kicking) and moderate physical aggression (e.g. shoving, grappling). Hierarchical linear modelling (HLM) comparing pre - post aggression for intervention versus control bars indicated a significant effect of the intervention in reducing severe and moderate aggression. This effect was moderated by turnover of managers and door/security staff with higher post-intervention aggression associated with higher turnover in the intervention bars. The findings indicate the potential for a stand-alone relatively brief intervention to reduce severe and moderate physical aggression in bars.