Dai Erfu

Ecosystem vulnerability of China under B2 climate scenario in the 21st century

This paper applies climate change scenarios in China based on the SRES assumptions with the help of RCMs projections by PRECIS (providing regional climates for impacts studies) system introduced to China from the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research at a high-resolution (50 km×50 km) over China. This research focuses on B2 scenario of SRES. A biogeochemical model “Atmosphere Vegetation Integrated Model (AVIM2)” was applied to simulating ecosystem status in the 21st century. Then vulnerability of ecosystems was assessed based on a set of index of mainly net primary production (NPP) of vegetation. Results show that climate change would affect ecosystem of China severely and there would be a worse trend with the lapse of time. The regions where having vulnerable ecological background would have heavier impacts while some regions with better ecological background would also receive serious impacts. Extreme climate even would bring about worse impact on the ecosystems. Open shrub and desert steppe would be the two most affected types. When the extreme events happen, vulnerable ecosystem would extend to part of defoliate broad-leaved forest, woody grassland and evergreen conifer forest. Climate change would not always be negative. It could be of some benefit to cold region during the near-term. However, in view of mid-term to long-term negative impact on ecosystem vulnerability would be enormously.

Assessment of Economic Damage Risks from Typhoon Disasters in Guangdong, China

Abstract: Guangdong is a developed province in China, but suffers from frequent typhoon disasters which cause great economic loss. Quantitative regional risk assessment of typhoon disasters is important for disaster prevention and mitigation. According to direct economic loss and typhoon intensity information, we established a typhoon disaster loss rate curve using data from 1954 to 2008. Based on GIS spatial module, the economic vulnerabilities of different intensity typhoons were calculated for 98 counties in Guangdong Province. Different intensity typhoon landing frequencies in Guangdong were also calculated, and used to indicate typhoon disaster probability. A risk assessment model was established to assess economic loss risk under different intensity typhoons in Guangdong. The results show that economic loss risk caused by typhoon is more than 10 thousand million CNY; according to typhoon intensity grade, economic risk is up to 10.467, 14.429, 7.753 and 13.591 thousand million CNY for slight, light, medium and severe typhoons, respectively. The Pearl River Delta is the highest risk region, especially Guangzhou, Dongguan, Shenzhen, Zhongshan and Zhuhai. Risk value decreases from Pearl River coastal outfall to the inland in a radial pattern. Inland areas far from coastal counties have lower risk, and the risk value is less than 50 million CNY. When typhoon intensity increases from slight to medium, the risk in western is higher than in eastern parts, but when typhoons become to severe, the risk value in eastern Guangdong part is higher than in the west.

Regional Differentiation and Classification for Carrying Constraints on the Resources and Environment of China

Abstract: Research on the relationship between national resource constraint-region types and environmental carrying capacity is essential for the continued development of Chinese industrialization and urbanization. Thus, utilizing a series of key indexes including the per-capita potential of available land resources, the per-capita potential of available water resources, the degree of environmental stress, and the degree of ecological restriction, a step-by-step, integrated measuring method is presented here to understand the constrained carrying elements of water and land resources as well as environment and ecology. Spatial differences are analyzed and area types classified at the county level across China. Results reveal that: (1) Almost 90% of China is strongly constrained by both resources and the environment, while nearly 50% of national territory is strongly constrained by two elements, especially in areas of intensive population and industry to the east of the Helan-Longmen Mountain line; (2) Densely populated areas of eastern and central China, as well as on the Tibetan Plateau, are strongly constrained by a shortage of land resources, while North China, the northwest, northeast, the Sichuan basin, and some southern cities are experiencing strong constraints because of water shortages. In contrast, the North China plain, the Yangtze River delta, northern Jiangsu, Sichuan province, Chongqing municipality, Guizhou and Guangxi provinces, the northeast plain, and the northern Loess Plateau are constrained by high levels of environmental stress. Areas of China that are strongly ecologically constrained tend to be concentrated to the southwest of the Tianshan-Dabie Mountain line, as well as in the northeast on the Loess Plateau, in the Alashan of Inner Mongolia, in northeast China, and in the northern Jiangsu coastal area; (3) Constraints on national resources and environmental carrying capacity are diverse and cross-cut China, meanwhile, multi-element spatial distribution does reveal a degree of relative centralization. With the exception of the Tibetan Plateau which is resources-ecological constraint , other areas subject to cross constraints are mainly concentrated to the east of the Helan-Longmen Mountain line.

Spatial Patterns of Forest Ecosystem Services and Influencing Factors in the Ganjiang River Basin

Abstract: As the major component of terrestrial ecosystems, forests play an irreplaceable role in providing ecosystem services and products (e.g. biodiversity, carbon sequestration, water yield and timber). Spatially quantifying ecosystem services and interactions will shed light on sustainable forest management. Main forest ecosystem services including carbon storage, water yield, soil retention and wood volume in the Ganjiang River Basin (GRB) were evaluated and mapped through the integrated use of InVEST3.1.0, CASA modeling and ArcGIS10.2, and relationships between forest ecosystem services and natural or social-economic factors were quantified and discussed based on ArcGIS10.2 and SPSS19.0. Results showed that the spatial pattern of the four ecosystem services is heterogeneous. Forests dominated by broad-leaved forest and bamboo forest in mountainous regions around the GRB provided the largest carbon storage and wood volume services, while forests dominated by Masson pine plantations or Chinese fir plantations in the northeast provided the largest water yield service. The spatial pattern of the soil retention service is more discrete than others, and forests in the southwestern regions showed larger soil erosion modulus than in the northeastern regions. Ecosystem services are closely related to the environmental process and human activities. With altitude or slope increases, the carbon storage and wood volume of forests increased and water yield depth and soil retention decreased. When the regional total population decreased or GDP per capita increased, carbon storage and wood volume increased. Further research into the interactions between environmental factors and ecosystem services is needed in order to understand environmental constraints when dealing with ecological problems.

Risk Assessment of Carbon Sequestration for Terrestrial Ecosystems in China

Abstract Climate change will alter the capacity of carbon sequestration, and the risk assessment of carbon sequestration for terrestrial ecosystems will be helpful to the decision-making for climate change countermeasures and international climate negotiations. Based on the net ecosystem productivity of terrestrial ecosystems simulated by Atmosphere Vegetation Integrated Model, each grid of the risk criterion was set by time series trend analysis. Then the risks of carbon sequestration of terrestrial ecosystems were investigated. The results show that, in the IPCCSRES-B2 climate scenario, climate change will bring risks of carbon sequestration, and the high-risk level will dominate terrestrial ecosystems. The risk would expand with the increase of warming degree. By the end of the long-term of this century, about 60% of the whole country will face the risk; Northwest China, mountainous areas in Northeast China, middle and lower reaches plain of Yangtze River areas, Southwest China and Southeast China tend to be extremely vulnerable. Risk levels in most regions are likely to grow with the increase of warming degree, and this increase will mainly occur during the near-term to mid-term. Northwest China will become an area of high risks, and deciduous coniferous forests, temperate mixed forests and desert grassland tend to be extremely vulnerable.

Projecting Spatial Patterns of Flood Hazard： Recent Climate and Future Changes over Yangtze River Basin

Abstract Projection of hazard changes in climate extremes is critical to assessing the potential impacts of climate change on human and natural systems. Using simulations of providing regional climates for impacts studies, five indicators (rainstorm days, maximum 3-day precipitation, elevation, gradient and distance from river or lake) were selected to project the spatial patterns of flood hazard over Yangtze River Basin for the baseline period (1961–1990) and future (2011–2100) under SRES B2 scenario. The results showed the mean annual rainstorm days over the basin by the near-term, mid-term and long-term would increase from 3.9 days to 4.7, 4.9 and 5.1 days, and the mean annual maximum 3-day precipitation from 122 mm to 143, 146 and 149 mm, respectively. The flood hazard of the basin would become more severe, especially in the middle and lower reaches. Flood hazard grade 5 by the nearterm, mid-term and long-term would extend from 10.99% to 25.46, 28.14 and 29.75%, respectively.