Dale Colyer

Modeling U.S. Broiler Supply Response: A Structural Time Series Approach

A structural time series model is used to estimate the supply response function for broiler production in the United States using quarterly data and a structural time series model. This model has the advantage of expressing trend and seasonal elements as stochastic components, allowing a dynamic interpretation of the results and improving the forecast capabilities of the model. The results of the estimation indicate the continued importance of feed cost to poultry production and of technology as expressed by the stochastic trend variable. However, seasonal influences appear to have become less important, since the seasonal component was not statistically significant.

A structural time series analysis of US broiler exports

A structural time series model is used to determine the dynamic characteristics, forecasting properties, and policy implications of factors affecting the US broiler export market. The emphasis is on international market responsiveness. The analysis indicates that in addition to the explanatory variables a trend component has been vital in the expansion of the broiler industry during the study period. The results indicate that export markets are more price responsive than the domestic markets, that interventions in the Canadian and Mexican markets reduce their imports, and exchange rate changes have significant impacts on US exports. ©1999 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Global Trade Integration and Economic Convergence of Developing Countries

Gerschenkron hypothesized that lower income countries would tend to grow more rapidly than higher income countries and, therefore, that their average incomes would converge. Since that time the record indicates that the industrialized nations have had relatively slow growth rates while many less-developed countries (LDCs) have had relatively rapid rates of growth, although many others have had slower rates of growth and some have been negative. Furthermore, the rates of growth have varied considerably during the four and one-half decades since 1952, both among countries and within a country from one year to the next. Thus, convergence remains an issue among development economists and others interested in the topic, with frequent concern being expressed about a growing gap between average incomes in the moreand less-developed economies of the world. In this article we examine convergence (and divergence) due to differential rates of growth, factors that affect growth, the role of international trade in the process, the policy frameworks that enhance or detract from growth, and the research needs and opportunities for agricultural and resource economists. A controversial aspect is the influence of trade on the process since most development economists tend to believe that more

Is it real? The long-run relation between terms of trade and current account deficits: the Ivory evidence

The long-run relationship between current account deficits, domestic income, foreign income and foreign interest rates are estimated based on Ivorian time series data. The empirical results suggest that terms of trade along with domestic income, French income, and foreign real interest rates have significant long-term relationships with the current account deficit. The methodology is based on the co-integration technique. In addition, using the bootstrap technique for unit roots and regression respectively indicates the long-run relationship and the regression equation appear robust.

Green trade agreements

Introduction Environmental Impacts of Trade Background Issues NAFTAs Environmental Provisions Environment and GATT/WTO FTA Trade Provisions US Trade Agreements FTAs in the Americas European Trade Agreements Trade Agreements in the Rest of the World Environmental Impact Analysis Impacts of Environmental Provisions Summary and Outlook

FTA Trade Provisions

This chapter lists and discuses the types and variations of environmental provisions contained in regional and bilateral free-trade agreements that have been negotiated in the years since NAFTA. Both will be referred to as free trade agreements (FTA) with RTA reserved for regional agreements — that is, those involving three or more countries in a specific geographic area. These provisions vary widely, from as little as a line or two in the preamble or an objective, inclusion as an exception to prohibited trade restrictions, provisions in one or more chapters or sections of the agreement (such as the investment chapter), a separate environmental chapter, or a separate environmental agreement that accompanies the trade agreement. The content of this chapter is based on analyses of FTAs in publications by Chaytor (2009), Colyer (2003a and b, 2004, 2006a, 2008, 2010), the OECD (2007), Less and Kim (2008), Less and Gigli (2008), Gigli (2009), Gallagher and Serrat (2010) and Bourgeois et al. (2007), as well as the several FTAs with environmental provisions and other relevant references. More detailed information on the various types of provisions and their respective FTAs are given in Chapters 7–10. Quotes from specific trade agreements are taken from the agreements available through the WTO’s RTA database or the OAS’s SICE database.

Environmental Impacts of Trade

There would be no need to include environmental provisions in trade agreements if trade did not affect the environment. Although there is considerable variation in the perceived effects of trade on the environment, probably because the effects are complex and varied, there is no doubt that they do exist and that they are interrelated. Some see trade as an unmitigated disaster for the environment, while others see nothing but environmental benefits from trade and therefore view increased trade as a way to improve the environment. The reality lies somewhere in between, with both environmental benefits and damages emanating from international trade in goods and services. This topic has been the subject of a vast literature in economic, legal, environmental and other publications reporting on many studies — both theoretical and empirical. Anriquez (2002), Copeland and Taylor (2004), Huang and Labys (2001, 2002) and others have provided extensive reviews of this body of literature. This chapter will not repeat or update those efforts, but will focus on summarizing the potential impacts that trade and, hence, increased trade through free-trade agreements have for the environment, with a brief review of a few empirical studies that document some of those impacts. This is to provide a background for understanding the utilization of trade provisions in FTAs as well as the dialogue (arguments) about including trade provisions in FTAs that occurred in the 1990s, when the issue first arose, in addition to more recent FTAs, and that still continue.

Trade Agreements in ROW

There are numerous trade agreements in the rest of the world (ROW), some having important environmental provisions. These include those of Australia, New Zealand and several African and Asian countries, such as China, Japan, Korea, Indonesia, etc. Some of these, those with countries in the Americas and Europe, have already been examined. This chapter highlights a number of FTAs in these diverse areas of the world which have become very active in trade negotiations with some innovative approaches to the topic. Included in these are the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and its associated Asian Free Trade Area (AFTA).

Impacts of Environmental Provisions

The previous chapter examined the expected impacts of the agreements on the environment, an ex ante analysis. This chapter explores ex post analyses — that is, analyses of the actual impacts with an emphasis on those emanating from the environmental provisions in the trade agreements. It should be noted that many of the trade agreements discussed in the preceding chapters are recent and little time has passed to allow environmental impacts to be manifested. Some, however, have relatively long histories and have been the subject of several studies. NAFTA is an example of the latter and it has been the subject of numerous studies, including those carried out by or for the NAAEC. Consequently, the first part of this chapter examines its environmental consequences in some detail. The remainder of the chapter will survey available information about the environmental impacts of other FTAs for which information is available.

Environment and GATT/WTO

The General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) was created in 1947 as a replacement for an international trade organization proposed in the Bretton Woods conference that also was responsible for the United Nations, World Bank and International Monetary Fund. The trade organization could not get approval and, hence, the GATT was developed with 23 nations as members (WTO 2010d). Environmental concerns had not been an important issue in the several rounds of GATT negotiations that preceded the Uruguay Round and probably would not have become a major issue then except for the concerns raised as a result of the Mexico-US tuna dispute that had ruled against the US restrictions on imports of tuna that had not been caught using dolphin safe procedures.