Dale S. Bremmer

Divorce and Female Labor Force Participation: Evidence from Times-Series Data and Cointegration

The divorce rate in the United States has increased over the last 40 years. This increase was accompanied both by growing female labor force participation and rising female income. These changes were accompanied by a significant reduction in the birth rate for married women. This article uses time-series data and cointegration techniques to determine the direction of causality between these variables. Analysis of the impulse functions show that the divorce rate will increase if either female labor force participation or income increases. Positive innovations to the divorce rate increase the labor force participation rate of married women. Rising levels of income lead to greater female participation in the labor market.

The advertising effect of university athletic success: A reappraisal of the evidence

Abstract In a 1987 article appearing in the Journal of Political Economy, R.E. McCormick and M. Tinsley argued that curtailment of university athletic programs could harm academic programs by reducing average freshman SAT scores. This study uses recent data and an improved specification to provide evidence that successful athletic participation does not provide measurable academic benefits to the university. In fact, evidence is provided that a universitys policy regarding admissions standards primarily determines the average level of freshman SAT scores.

Inflation Targeting as a Framework for Monetary Policy: A Cross-Country Analysis

This study makes use of a dynamic Taylor-type model to examine the conduct of monetary policy by central banks that profess to engage in inflation targeting. Previous research regarding inflation targeting and Taylor-type rules is reviewed and a dynamic Taylor-type model is developed. Tests for regime shifts upon the adoption of inflation targeting indicate a significant change in policy in each of the nations in the study for which sufficient data were available. Next, the central bank reaction functions were estimated. Results suggest that most of the central banks conducted a policy of inflation targeting by seeking to contain inflationary pressures rather than reacting to current inflation.

Female income and the divorce decision: evidence from micro data

Escalating divorce rates during the 1960s and 1970s led to large numbers of academic investigations into the causes of divorce. Most of these studies concentrated on a significant increase in female income that resulted from rising female labour force participation rates. The difficulty with quantifying these arguments is that it is possible to observe the income of married females or it is possible to observe the income of divorced females, but it is not possible to observe both outcomes, simultaneously. This research attempts to resolve these difficulties by using sample selection techniques to correct for possible bias from simple observation of the income of married and divorced females.

Discouraged vs. added workers: Variation by gender, age, and marital status

Abstract This paper analyzes the relationship between aggregate unemployment and the labor force participation of males and females of differing ages and marital circumstances. According to the discouraged-worker effect, a higher unemployment rate causes some workers to leave the labor force leading to a reduction in both the labor-force participation rate and the unemployment rate. To shed light on this statistical incongruity, a unique data set consisting of monthly observations from the Current Population Survey is used to extract the labor force participation rates of males and females of three different age categories and three different marital classifications. Impulse functions from vector error-correction models indicate that discouraged workers are more likely though not exclusively to consist of married males and females between 50 and 65 years of age. No statistically significant evidence of a net added-worker effect is found among married females or males in any age group.

Setting the target for the federal funds rate: the determinants of Fed behaviour

This article analyses the factors the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) considers in setting the target for the federal funds rate. The sample consists of 262 FOMC meetings between 1983 and 2005. Statistical results indicate that the Feds target is inversely related to the unemployment rate and directly related to several measures of expected inflation. Technical factors such as the number of days since the last target change, the size and direction of the previous target change and the gap between the actual federal funds rate and its targeted value were also statistically significant explanatory variables. Estimations were performed using Ordinary Least Squares (OLS), censored regression and two types of ordered probit; but the results proved to be robust regardless of the statistical technique used.

Analyzing Fed Behavior Using a Dynamic Taylor-Type Rule

This paper estimates a dynamic Taylor-type model in order to analyze the behavior of the Federal Reserve under the leadership of three different Fed chairs: Arthur Burns, Paul Volcker, and Alan Greenspan. The model proves useful in distinguishing the conduct of monetary policy under each. Burns is found to have paid little attention to inflation and inflationary pressures. Volcker focused on reducing actual inflation during his first term while turning his attention to the GDP gap and inflationary pressures in his second term. Greenspan emphasized preemptive strikes against inflation as indicated by high weights attributed to the GDP gap and expected inflation.