Dan H. Shugar

Geomorphic and geologic controls of geohazards induced by Nepal’s 2015 Gorkha earthquake

Nepals quake-driven landslide hazards Large earthquakes can trigger dangerous landslides across a wide geographic region. The 2015 Mw 7.8 Gorhka earthquake near Kathmandu, Nepal, was no exception. Kargal et al. used remote observations to compile a massive catalog of triggered debris flows. The satellite-based observations came from a rapid response team assisting the disaster relief effort. Schwanghart et al. show that Kathmandu escaped the historically catastrophic landslides associated with earthquakes in 1100, 1255, and 1344 C.E. near Nepals second largest city, Pokhara. These two studies underscore the importance of determining slope stability in mountainous, earthquake-prone regions. Science, this issue p. 10.1126/science.aac8353; see also p. 147 Satellite imaging isolated hazard potential for earthquake-triggered landslides after the 2015 Gorkha earthquake in Nepal. INTRODUCTION On 25 April 2015, the Gorkha earthquake [magnitude (M) 7.8] struck Nepal, followed by five aftershocks of ≥M 6.0 until 10 June 2015. The earthquakes killed ~9000 people and severely damaged a 550 by 200 km region in Nepal and neighboring countries. Some mountain villages were completely destroyed, and the remote locations, blocked roads, and landslide-dammed rivers prevented ground access to many areas. RATIONALE Our “Volunteer Group” of scientists from nine nations, motivated by humanitarian needs, focused on satellite-based systematic mapping and analysis of earthquake-induced geohazards. We provided information to relief and recovery officials as emergency operations were occurring, while supported by one of the largest-ever NASA-led campaigns of responsive satellite data acquisitions over a vast disaster zone. Our analysis of geohazards distribution allowed evaluation of geomorphic, tectonic, and lithologic controls on earthquake-induced landsliding, process mechanisms, and hazard process chains, particularly where they affected local populations. RESULTS We mapped 4312 coseismic and postseismic landslides. Their distribution shows positive associations with slope and shaking intensity. The highest areal densities of landslides are developed on the downdropped northern tectonic block, which is likely explained by momentary reduction of the normal stress along planes of weakness during downward acceleration. The two largest shocks bracket the high-density landslide distribution, the largest magnitudes of the surface displacement field, and highest peak ground accelerations (PGAs). Landslides are heavily concentrated where PGA was >0.6g and slope is >30°. Additional controls on landslide occurrence are indicated by their clustering near earthquake epicenters and within specific lithologic units. The product of PGA and the sine of surface slope (defined as the landslide susceptibility index) is a good indicator of where most landslides occurred. A tail of the statistical distributions of landslides extends to low values of the landslide susceptibility index. Slight earthquake shaking affected vulnerable materials hanging on steep slopes—such as ice, snow, and glacial debris—and moderate to strong shaking affected poorly consolidated sediments deposited in low-sloping river valleys, which were already poised near a failure threshold. In the remote Langtang Valley, some of the most concentrated destruction and losses of life outside the Kathmandu Valley were directly due to earthquake-induced landslides and air blasts. Complex seismic wave interactions and wave focusing may have caused ridgetop shattering and landslides near Langtang but reduced direct shaking damage on valley floors and at glacial lakes. CONCLUSION The Gorkha earthquake took a tremendous, tragic toll on human lives and culture. However, fortunately no damaging earthquake-caused glacier lake outburst floods were observed by our satellite analysis. The total number of landslides was far fewer than those generated by comparable earthquakes elsewhere, probably because of a lack of surface ruptures, the concentration of deformation along the subsurface thrust fault at 10 to 15 km depth, and the regional dominance of competent high-grade metamorphic and intrusive igneous rock types. Landslide distribution and effects of a huge landslide. (A) Landslides (purple dots) are concentrated mostly north of the tectonic hinge-line. Also shown are the epicenters of the main shock and largest aftershock. Displacements are from the JAXA ALOS-2 ScanSAR interferogram (21 Feb and 2 May 2015 acquisitions). (B and C) Before-and-after photographs obtained by D. Breashears in Langtang Valley showing complete destruction of a large part of Langtang village by a huge landslide. The Gorkha earthquake (magnitude 7.8) on 25 April 2015 and later aftershocks struck South Asia, killing ~9000 people and damaging a large region. Supported by a large campaign of responsive satellite data acquisitions over the earthquake disaster zone, our team undertook a satellite image survey of the earthquakes’ induced geohazards in Nepal and China and an assessment of the geomorphic, tectonic, and lithologic controls on quake-induced landslides. Timely analysis and communication aided response and recovery and informed decision-makers. We mapped 4312 coseismic and postseismic landslides. We also surveyed 491 glacier lakes for earthquake damage but found only nine landslide-impacted lakes and no visible satellite evidence of outbursts. Landslide densities correlate with slope, peak ground acceleration, surface downdrop, and specific metamorphic lithologies and large plutonic intrusions.

Elevation changes (1949–1995) of Black Rapids Glacier, Alaska, derived from a multi-baseline InSAR DEM and historical maps

We have constructed a new digital elevation model (DEM) of the 1995 surface of Black Rapids Glacier, a surge-type glacier in the central Alaska Range, using ERS-1/-2 repeat-pass interferometry. We isolated the topographic phase from three interferograms with contrasting perpendicular baselines. Numerous phase-unwrapping errors caused by areas of poor coherence were corrected in all three interferograms, using a novel, iterative, semi-automated approach that capitalizes on the multi-baseline nature of the dataset. Comparison of our DEM with a 1949 US Geological Survey DEM and with 1973-95 ground survey data shows the gradual return of Black Rapids Glacier to a pre- surge hypsometry following a surge in 1936/37. Maximum elevation changes along the glacier center line in the ablation and accumulation areas are, respectively, -249 and +63 m (-5.4 and +1.4 m a -1 ). Maximum elevation changes of survey points at nearby locations are -4.9 m a -1 (1975-84) and +0.5 ma -1 (1975-85). Center-line thickening of +62 m between 1949 and 1995 (+1.4 m a -1 ), just above the Loket tributary in the upper part of the ablation zone, indicates dynamic thickening following the 1936/37 surge.

Identification and characterization of alpine subglacial lakes using interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR): Brady Glacier, Alaska, USA

The temporary storage and subsequent release of water at glacial margins can cause severe flooding in downstream areas and substantially impact glacier dynamics. Alpine subglacial lakes may not be identified until they become subaerially exposed or release a jokulhlaup. We use interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) to identify and characterize three dynamic alpine subglacial lakes of Brady Glacier, Alaska, USA. We quantify changes in vertical displacement of the glacier surface and lake volumes from September 1995 through March 1996 using European Remote-sensing Satellite-1/-2 (ERS- 1/-2) tandem data. In the autumn, subsidence ranged from 4 to 26 cm d -1 and the volume of water discharged ranged from 22 000 � 2000 to 243 000 � 14 000 m 3 d -1 . Subsidence and discharge rates declined significantly during the winter and continued at a lesser rate through March. Application of this technique may allow researchers to locate alpine subglacial lakes years or decades before they begin to release hazardous outburst floods and substantially impact glacier dynamics.

A Quantitative Assessment of the Sedimentology and Geomorphology of Rock Avalanche Deposits

We use digital photo-sieving and spatial statistics to quantify the debris of three landslides on Black Rapids Glacier, Alaska, and the non-glacial Frank Slide, Alberta. The debris sheets on Black Rapids Glacier have clusters of large blocks in parts of their distal rims; small clusters of large blocks also occur elsewhere, including the proximal side of a high medial moraine. Longitudinal flowbands formed by shearing within the debris and marked by different block sizes characterize all three Black Rapids debris sheets. In contrast, no flowbands are evident on the Frank Slide debris sheet. Especially large blocks form a conspicuous cluster in the middle of the Frank Slide debris sheet. The distal edge is composed of small blocks. The presence of many of the largest blocks at the peripheries of the three Black Rapids Glacier debris sheets indicates that the landslides spread without confinement. The lack of a coarse distal rim at Frank may indicate that the irregular topography over which the debris traveled influenced the distribution of the largest blocks. Patches of different types of carbonate rock within the Frank Slide debris sheet indicate that source-zone stratigraphy is preserved within the debris sheet. Differences among the studied debris sheets reflect different paths and substrates over which the landslides traveled: unconfined spreading and continuous, progressive thinning of debris traversing a relatively flat surface of snow and ice at Black Rapids Glacier; and topography-controlled spreading over an irregular rising and vegetated surface at Frank.

Evolution and Controls of Large Glacial Lakes in the Nepal Himalaya

Glacier recession driven by climate change produces glacial lakes, some of which are hazardous. Our study assesses the evolution of three of the most hazardous moraine-dammed proglacial lakes in the Nepal Himalaya—Imja, Lower Barun, and Thulagi. Imja Lake (up to 150 m deep; 78.4 × 106 m3 volume; surveyed in October 2014) and Lower Barun Lake (205 m maximum observed depth; 112.3 × 106 m3 volume; surveyed in October 2015) are much deeper than previously measured, and their readily drainable volumes are slowly growing. Their surface areas have been increasing at an accelerating pace from a few small supraglacial lakes in the 1950s/1960s to 1.33 km2 and 1.79 km2 in 2017, respectively. In contrast, the surface area (0.89 km2) and volume of Thulagi lake (76 m maximum observed depth; 36.1 × 106 m3; surveyed in October 2017) has remained almost stable for about two decades. Analyses of changes in the moraine dams of the three lakes using digital elevation models (DEMs) quantifies the degradation of the dams due to the melting of their ice cores and hence their natural lowering rates as well as the potential for glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs). We examined the likely future evolution of lake growth and hazard processes associated with lake instability, which suggests faster growth and increased hazard potential at Lower Barun lake.

The 2015 landslide and tsunami in Taan Fiord, Alaska

Glacial retreat in recent decades has exposed unstable slopes and allowed deep water to extend beneath some of those slopes. Slope failure at the terminus of Tyndall Glacier on 17 October 2015 sent 180 million tons of rock into Taan Fiord, Alaska. The resulting tsunami reached elevations as high as 193 m, one of the highest tsunami runups ever documented worldwide. Precursory deformation began decades before failure, and the event left a distinct sedimentary record, showing that geologic evidence can help understand past occurrences of similar events, and might provide forewarning. The event was detected within hours through automated seismological techniques, which also estimated the mass and direction of the slide - all of which were later confirmed by remote sensing. Our field observations provide a benchmark for modeling landslide and tsunami hazards. Inverse and forward modeling can provide the framework of a detailed understanding of the geologic and hazards implications of similar events. Our results call attention to an indirect effect of climate change that is increasing the frequency and magnitude of natural hazards near glaciated mountains.

‘Boundary’: mapping and visualizing climatically changed landscapes at Kaskawulsh Glacier and Kluane Lake, Yukon

ABSTRACT This paper describes a collaboration between a visual artist and geoscientists, who together viewed the same rugged, high mountain landscape through different, yet complementary, lenses. We pair scientific mapping and historic comparative photography with a series of site-specific sculptural installations to interpret the dramatic geological changes that occurred at Kaskawulsh Glacier, Yukon, in the spring of 2016. In the summer of that year, artist K.A. Colorado accompanied geoscientists D.H. Shugar, J.J. Clague, and J.L. Best to the terminus of Kaskawulsh Glacier, as well as Kluane Lake downstream of the glacier, to document the landscape changes that occurred earlier in the year. The Boundary images were created as on-site, three-dimensional, artistic interpretations of the markedly changed boundaries that occurred as a result of climate-induced glacier retreat and the sudden subcontinental-scale reorganization of drainage. Both the scientific study conducted by the geomorphologists and the art installations created by the artist were performed simultaneously. The Boundary installation art project, together with satellite imagery and historical photographs, conveys the death of Slims River as a result of climate change.