Dan R. Schley

Assessing “Economic Value”: Symbolic-Number Mappings Predict Risky and Riskless Valuations

Diminishing marginal utility (DMU) is a basic tenet of economic and psychological models of judgment and choice, but its determinants are little understood. In the research reported here, we tested whether insensitivities in valuations of dollar amounts (e.g.,

A New Measure of Interpersonal Exploitativeness

40,

Protective Measures, Personal Experience, and the Affective Psychology of Time

100) may be due to inexact mappings of symbolic numbers (i.e., “40,” “100”) onto mental magnitudes. In three studies, we demonstrated that inexact mappings appear to guide valuation and mediate numeracy’s relations with riskless valuations (Studies 1 and 1a) and risky choices (Study 2). The results highlight the fundamental notion that individuals’ valuations of

Competing Theories of Multialternative, Multiattribute Preferential Choice.

100 depend critically on how individuals perceive and map the symbolic quantity “100.” This notion has implications for conceptualizations of value, risk aversion, intertemporal choice, and dual-process theories of decision making. Normative implications are also briefly discussed.

Improving numeracy through values affirmation enhances decision and STEM outcomes

Measures of exploitativeness evidence problems with validity and reliability. The present set of studies assessed a new measure [the Interpersonal Exploitativeness Scale (IES)] that defines exploitativeness in terms of reciprocity. In Studies 1 and 2, 33 items were administered to participants. Exploratory and Confirmatory Factor Analysis demonstrated that a single factor consisting of six items adequately assess interpersonal exploitativeness. Study 3 results revealed that the IES was positively associated with “normal” narcissism, pathological narcissism, psychological entitlement, and negative reciprocity and negatively correlated with positive reciprocity. In Study 4, participants competed in a commons dilemma. Those who scored higher on the IES were more likely to harvest a greater share of resources over time, even while controlling for other relevant variables, such as entitlement. Together, these studies show the IES to be a valid and reliable measure of interpersonal exploitativeness. The authors discuss the implications of these studies.

The role of context in risky choice.

We examined the role of time and affect in intentions to purchase a risk-protective measure (Studies 1 and 2) and explored participant abilities to factor time into the likelihood judgments that presumably underlie such intentions (Study 3). Participants worried more about losing their possessions and were more likely to purchase a protective measure given a longer term lease than a short-term lease, but only if their belongings were described in affect-poor terms. If described instead as being particularly special and affect-rich, participants neglected time and were about equally likely to purchase a risk-protective measure for shorter and longer term leases. However, and consistent with prior literature, the cognitive mechanism underlying this time-neglect-with-affect-richness effect seemed to be the greater use of the affect heuristic in the shorter term than the longer term. Study 2 results demonstrated that prior experience with having been burglarized amplified the interactive effect of time and affect. Greater deliberation did not attenuate this effect as hypothesized whether deliberation was measured through numeracy or manipulated through instructions. The results of Study 3 indicated that few participants are able to calculate correctly the risk numbers necessary to take time into account. Two possible solutions to encourage more purchases of protective measures in the long term are discussed.

The anchor integration model: A descriptive model of anchoring effects

In accounting for phenomena present in preferential choice experiments, modern models assume a wide array of different mechanisms such as lateral inhibition, leakage, loss aversion, and saliency. These mechanisms create interesting predictions for the dynamics of the deliberation process as well as the aggregate behavior of preferential choice in a variety of contexts. However, the models that embody these different mechanisms are rarely subjected to rigorous quantitative tests of suitability by way of model fitting and evaluation. Recently, complex, stochastic models have been cast aside in favor of simpler approximations, which may or may not capture the data as well. In this article, we use a recently developed method to fit the four extant models of context effects to data from two experiments: one involving consumer goods stimuli, and another involving perceptual stimuli. Our third study investigates the relative merits of the mechanisms currently assumed by the extant models of context effects by testing every possible configuration of mechanism within one overarching model. Across all tasks, our results emphasize the importance of several mechanisms such as lateral inhibition, loss aversion, and pairwise attribute differences, as these mechanisms contribute positively to model performance. Together, our results highlight the notion that mathematical tractability, while certainly a convenient feature of any model, should neither be the primary impetus for model development nor the promoting or demotion of specific model mechanisms. Instead, model fit, balanced with model complexity, should be the greatest burden to bear for any theoretical account of empirical phenomena.

Seeing the Math in the Story On How Abstraction Promotes Performance on Mathematical Word Problems

Greater numeracy has been correlated with better health and financial outcomes in past studies, but causal effects in adults are unknown. In a 9-week longitudinal study, undergraduate students, all taking a psychology statistics course, were randomly assigned to a control condition or a values-affirmation manipulation intended to improve numeracy. By the final week in the course, the numeracy intervention (statistics-course enrollment combined with values affirmation) enhanced objective numeracy, subjective numeracy, and two decision-related outcomes (financial literacy and health-related behaviors). It also showed positive indirect-only effects on financial outcomes and a series of STEM-related outcomes (course grades, intentions to take more math-intensive courses, later math-intensive courses taken based on academic transcripts). All decision and STEM-related outcome effects were mediated by the changes in objective and/or subjective numeracy and demonstrated similar and robust enhancements. Improvements to abstract numeric reasoning can improve everyday outcomes.

Proleader and antitrailer information distortion and their effects on choice and postchoice memory

Human choice behavior was assessed in a concurrent-chain schedule, where two equal initial links (IL) each led to a distinct terminal-link (TL). One TL was associated with a fixed ratio schedule of reinforcement, while the other was associated with a bi-valued mixed ratio schedule of reinforcement, whose arithmetic mean equaled the Fixed TL schedule. The fixed component (FR50; FR25; FR5) was arranged to be equal to the alternative mixed component in each condition (FR1/99; FR1/49; FR1/9), and choice behavior was measured by proportion of responses to each IL. In addition, the IL duration varied across conditions (VI 30s; VI 15s; FI 1s). Preference for the mixed option was observed with longer durations (e.g., when IL=VI 30s and TL=FR1/99). Participants were relatively indifferent in other conditions, though the results suggested a monotonic increase in preference as either durations or programmed efforts increased. It is concluded that both choice and the conditioned reinforcement value of the mixed option is contextually based, so that the value of a stimulus correlated with an immediate reward (i.e., FR 1) is enhanced the greater the temporal context in which the FR1 is embedded.

The role of evaluation mode on the unit effect

Few experimental effects in the psychology of judgment and decision making have been studied as meticulously as the anchoring effect. Although the existing literature provides considerable insight into the psychological processes underlying anchoring effects, extant theories up to this point have only generated qualitative predictions. While these theories have been productive in advancing our understanding of the underlying anchoring process, they leave much to be desired in the interpretation of specific anchoring effects. In this article, we introduce the Anchor Integration Model (AIM) as a descriptive tool for the measurement and quantification of anchoring effects. We develop two versions the model: one suitable for assessing between-participant anchoring effects, and another for assessing individual differences in anchoring effects. We then fit each model to data from two experiments, and demonstrate the models utility in describing anchoring effects.