Dan Smale

Impact of stratospheric ozone on Southern Hemisphere circulation change: A multimodel assessment

The impact of stratospheric ozone on the tropospheric general circulation of the Southern Hemisphere (SH) is examined with a set of chemistry-climate models participating in the Stratospheric Processes and their Role in Climate (SPARC)/Chemistry-Climate Model Validation project phase 2 (CCMVal-2). Model integrations of both the past and future climates reveal the crucial role of stratospheric ozone in driving SH circulation change: stronger ozone depletion in late spring generally leads to greater poleward displacement and intensification of the tropospheric midlatitude jet, and greater expansion of the SH Hadley cell in the summer. These circulation changes are systematic as poleward displacement of the jet is typically accompanied by intensification of the jet and expansion of the Hadley cell. Overall results are compared with coupled models participating in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4), and possible mechanisms are discussed. While the tropospheric circulation response appears quasi-linearly related to stratospheric ozone changes, the quantitative response to a given forcing varies considerably from one model to another. This scatter partly results from differences in model climatology. It is shown that poleward intensification of the westerly jet is generally stronger in models whose climatological jet is biased toward lower latitudes. This result is discussed in the context of quasi-geostrophic zonal mean dynamics.

Process-evaluation of tropospheric humidity simulated by general circulation models using water vapor isotopologues: 1. Comparison between models and observations

The goal of this study is to determine how H2O and HDO measurements in water vapor can be used to detect and diagnose biases in the representation of processes controlling tropospheric humidity in atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs). We analyze a large number of isotopic data sets (four satellite, sixteen ground-based remote-sensing, five surface in situ and three aircraft data sets) that are sensitive to different altitudes throughout the free troposphere. Despite significant differences between data sets, we identify some observed HDO/H2O characteristics that are robust across data sets and that can be used to evaluate models. We evaluate the isotopic GCM LMDZ, accounting for the effects of spatiotemporal sampling and instrument sensitivity. We find that LMDZ reproduces the spatial patterns in the lower and mid troposphere remarkably well. However, it underestimates the amplitude of seasonal variations in isotopic composition at all levels in the subtropics and in midlatitudes, and this bias is consistent across all data sets. LMDZ also underestimates the observed meridional isotopic gradient and the contrast between dry and convective tropical regions compared to satellite data sets. Comparison with six other isotope-enabled GCMs from the SWING2 project shows that biases exhibited by LMDZ are common to all models. The SWING2 GCMs show a very large spread in isotopic behavior that is not obviously related to that of humidity, suggesting water vapor isotopic measurements could be used to expose model shortcomings. In a companion paper, the isotopic differences between models are interpreted in terms of biases in the representation of processes controlling humidity. Copyright

Multimodel assessment of the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere: Tropics and global trends

The performance of 18 coupled Chemistry Climate Models (CCMs) in the Tropical Tropopause Layer (TTL) is evaluated using qualitative and quantitative diagnostics. Trends in tropopause quantities in the tropics and the extratropical Upper Troposphere and Lower Stratosphere (UTLS) are analyzed. A quantitative grading methodology for evaluating CCMs is extended to include variability and used to develop four different grades for tropical tropopause temperature and pressure, water vapor and ozone. Four of the 18 models and the multi‐model mean meet quantitative and qualitative standards for reproducing key processes in the TTL. Several diagnostics are performed on a subset of the models analyzing the Tropopause Inversion Layer (TIL), Lagrangian cold point and TTL transit time. Historical decreases in tropical tropopause pressure and decreases in water vapor are simulated, lending confidence to future projections. The models simulate continued decreases in tropopause pressure in the 21st century, along with ∼1K increases per century in cold point tropopause temperature and 0.5–1 ppmv per century increases in water vapor above the tropical tropopause. TTL water vapor increases below the cold point. In two models, these trends are associated with 35% increases in TTL cloud fraction. These changes indicate significant perturbations to TTL processes, specifically to deep convective heating and humidity transport. Ozone in the extratropical lowermost stratosphere has significant and hemispheric asymmetric trends. O3 is projected to increase by nearly 30% due to ozone recovery in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) and due to enhancements in the stratospheric circulation. These UTLS ozone trends may have significant effects in the TTL and the troposphere.

Review of the formulation of present‐generation stratospheric chemistry‐climate models and associated external forcings

The goal of the Chemistry-Climate Model Validation (CCMVal) activity is to improve understanding of chemistry-climate models (CCMs) through process-oriented evaluation and to provide reliable projections of stratospheric ozone and its impact on climate. An appreciation of the details of model formulations is essential for understanding how models respond to the changing external forcings of greenhouse gases and ozone-depleting substances, and hence for understanding the ozone and climate forecasts produced by the models participating in this activity. Here we introduce and review the models used for the second round (CCMVal-2) of this intercomparison, regarding the implementation of chemical, transport, radiative, and dynamical processes in these models. In particular, we review the advantages and problems associated with approaches used to model processes of relevance to stratospheric dynamics and chemistry. Furthermore, we state the definitions of the reference simulations performed, and describe the forcing data used in these simulations. We identify some developments in chemistry-climate modeling that make models more physically based or more comprehensive, including the introduction of an interactive ocean, online photolysis, troposphere-stratosphere chemistry, and non-orographic gravity-wave deposition as linked to tropospheric convection. The relatively new developments indicate that stratospheric CCM modeling is becoming more consistent with our physically based understanding of the atmosphere.

Stratosphere-troposphere coupling and annular mode variability in chemistry-climate models

The internal variability and coupling between the stratosphere and troposphere in CCMValA¢Â�Â�2 chemistryA¢Â�Â�climate models are evaluated through analysis of the annular mode patterns of variability. Computation of the annular modes in long data sets with secular trends requires refinement of the standard definition of the annular mode, and a more robust procedure that allows for slowly varying trends is established and verified. The spatial and temporal structure of the modelsA¢Â�Â� annular modes is then compared with that of reanalyses. As a whole, the models capture the key features of observed intraseasonal variability, including the sharp vertical gradients in structure between stratosphere and troposphere, the asymmetries in the seasonal cycle between the Northern and Southern hemispheres, and the coupling between the polar stratospheric vortices and tropospheric midlatitude jets. It is also found that the annular mode variability changes little in time throughout simulations of the 21st century. There are, however, both common biases and significant differences in performance in the models. In the troposphere, the annular mode in models is generally too persistent, particularly in the Southern Hemisphere summer, a bias similar to that found in CMIP3 coupled climate models. In the stratosphere, the periods of peak variance and coupling with the troposphere are delayed by about a month in both hemispheres. The relationship between increased variability of the stratosphere and increased persistence in the troposphere suggests that some tropospheric biases may be related to stratospheric biases and that a wellA¢Â�Â�simulated stratosphere can improve simulation of tropospheric intraseasonal variability.

Using transport diagnostics to understand chemistry climate model ozone simulations

We use observations of N2O and mean age to identify realistic transport in models in order to explain their ozone predictions. The results are applied to 15 chemistry climate models (CCMs) participating in the 2010 World Meteorological Organization ozone assessment. Comparison of the observed and simulated N2O, mean age and their compact correlation identifies models with fast or slow circulations and reveals details of model ascent and tropical isolation. This process-oriented diagnostic is more useful than mean age alone because it identifies models with compensating transport deficiencies that produce fortuitous agreement with mean age. The diagnosed model transport behavior is related to a models ability to produce realistic lower stratosphere (LS) O3 profiles. Models with the greatest tropical transport problems compare poorly with O3 observations. Models with the most realistic LS transport agree more closely with LS observations and each other. We incorporate the results of the chemistry evaluations in the Stratospheric Processes and their Role in Climate (SPARC) CCMVal Report to explain the range of CCM predictions for the return-to-1980 dates for global (60°S-60°N) and Antarctic column ozone. Antarctic O3 return dates are generally correlated with vortex Cly levels, and vortex Cly is generally correlated with the models circulation, although model Cl chemistry and conservation problems also have a significant effect on return date. In both regions, models with good LS transport and chemistry produce a smaller range of predictions for the return-to-1980 ozone values. This study suggests that the current range of predicted return dates is unnecessarily broad due to identifiable model deficiencies.

Altitude effects on UV spectral irradiance deduced from measurements at Lauder, New Zealand, and at Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii

Measurements from Lauder, New Zealand, and from the high-altitude Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii, are used to determine the altitude effects on spectral UV irradiance and to relate these altitude differences to other factors that influence UV radiation. The measured ratios UVMauna Loa/UVLauder are complex functions of both wavelength and solar zenith angle (SZA). Spectrally, the ratios tend to increase toward shorter wavelengths through most of the UV-A region. For small SZA (SZA ∼80°, local minima in the ratios are seen at shorter wavelengths in the UV-B region. For biologically weighted irradiances, the peak ratios occur near SZA = 70°, where UV-A, erythemally weighted UV, UV-B, and DNA-weighted UV irradiances at Mauna Loa Observatory exceeded those at Lauder by ∼17%, 26%, 27%, and 29% respectively. The ratios of irradiances at the two altitudes, as functions of SZA and wavelength, were related to differences expected from radiative transfer calculations. For small SZA, modeled and measured ratios agreed within the limits of experimental uncertainty without taking differences in altitude distributions of ozone and temperature into account. However, for larger SZA and shorter wavelengths these profile shapes had a significant effect. In the model calculations, satisfactory agreement with the measurements was achieved only when the contribution from radiation scattered from air or cloud tops below the observation height at Mauna Loa Observatory was included. To model this accurately, a three-dimensional radiative transfer code should be used in conjunction with a topographical model of the surrounding terrain.

Multimodel assessment of the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere: Extratropics

A multimodel assessment of the performance of chemistry-climate models (CCMs) in the extratropical upper troposphere/lower stratosphere (UTLS) is conducted for the first time. Process-oriented diagnostics are used to validate dynamical and transport characteristics of 18 CCMs using meteorological analyses and aircraft and satellite observations. The main dynamical and chemical climatological characteristics of the extratropical UTLS are generally well represented by the models, despite the limited horizontal and vertical resolution. The seasonal cycle of lowermost stratospheric mass is realistic, however with a wide spread in its mean value. A tropopause inversion layer is present in most models, although the maximum in static stability is located too high above the tropopause and is somewhat too weak, as expected from limited model resolution. Similar comments apply to the extratropical tropopause transition layer. The seasonality in lower stratospheric chemical tracers is consistent with the seasonality in the Brewer-Dobson circulation. Both vertical and meridional tracer gradients are of similar strength to those found in observations. Models that perform less well tend to use a semi-Lagrangian transport scheme and/or have a very low resolution. Two models, and the multimodel mean, score consistently well on all diagnostics, while seven other models score well on all diagnostics except the seasonal cycle of water vapor. Only four of the models are consistently below average. The lack of tropospheric chemistry in most models limits their evaluation in the upper troposphere. Finally, the UTLS is relatively sparsely sampled by observations, limiting our ability to quantitatively evaluate many aspects of model performance.

Chemistry‐climate model simulations of spring Antarctic ozone

Coupled chemistry-climate model simulations covering the recent past and continuing throughout the 21st century have been completed with a range of different models. Common forcings are used for the halogen amounts and greenhouse gas concentrations, as expected under the Montreal Protocol (with amendments) and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change A1b Scenario. The simulations of the Antarctic ozone hole are compared using commonly used diagnostics: the minimum ozone, the maximum area of ozone below 220 DU, and the ozone mass deficit below 220 DU. Despite the fact that the processes responsible for ozone depletion are reasonably well understood, a wide range of results is obtained. Comparisons with observations indicate that one of the reasons for the model underprediction in ozone hole area is the tendency for models to underpredict, by up to 35%, the area of low temperatures responsible for polar stratospheric cloud formation. Models also typically have species gradients that are too weak at the edge of the polar vortex, suggesting that there is too much mixing of air across the vortex edge. Other models show a high bias in total column ozone which restricts the size of the ozone hole (defined by a 220 DU threshold). The results of those models which agree best with observations are examined in more detail. For several models the ozone hole does not disappear this century but a small ozone hole of up to three million square kilometers continues to occur in most springs even after 2070.

Recent Northern Hemisphere stratospheric HCl increase due to atmospheric circulation changes

The abundance of chlorine in the Earth’s atmosphere increased considerably during the 1970s to 1990s, following large emissions of anthropogenic long-lived chlorine-containing source gases, notably the chlorofluorocarbons. The chemical inertness of chlorofluorocarbons allows their transport and mixing throughout the troposphere on a global scale, before they reach the stratosphere where they release chlorine atoms that cause ozone depletion. The large ozone loss over Antarctica was the key observation that stimulated the definition and signing in 1987 of the Montreal Protocol, an international treaty establishing a schedule to reduce the production of the major chlorine- and bromine-containing halocarbons. Owing to its implementation, the near-surface total chlorine concentration showed a maximum in 1993, followed by a decrease of half a per cent to one per cent per year, in line with expectations. Remote-sensing data have revealed a peak in stratospheric chlorine after 1996, then a decrease of close to one per cent per year, in agreement with the surface observations of the chlorine source gases and model calculations. Here we present ground-based and satellite data that show a recent and significant increase, at the 2σ level, in hydrogen chloride (HCl), the main stratospheric chlorine reservoir, starting around 2007 in the lower stratosphere of the Northern Hemisphere, in contrast with the ongoing monotonic decrease of near-surface source gases. Using model simulations, we attribute this trend anomaly to a slowdown in the Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation, occurring over several consecutive years, transporting more aged air to the lower stratosphere, and characterized by a larger relative conversion of source gases to HCl. This short-term dynamical variability will also affect other stratospheric tracers and needs to be accounted for when studying the evolution of the stratospheric ozone layer.