Dan Xi

The impact of economic and monetary uncertainty on the demand for money in emerging economies

By introducing uncertainty, monetary volatility and economic volatility are said to make the public cautious, hence increase their cash holdings or their demand for money. On the other hand, because of monetary and economic uncertainty if the public seek safer assets than money, they may hold less cash. In the absence of any paper testing for the impact of economic and monetary uncertainty on the demand for money in emerging economies, this article fills the gap by considering the experiences of six Central and Eastern European emerging economies and four other emerging economies. We found that the impact is transitory in most countries. Moreover, money demand is found correctly specified and stable in most countries, suggesting that policy based on monetary targeting could still be effective despite significant output and monetary uncertainty.

Economic and Monetary Uncertainty and the Demand for Money in China

Output uncertainty and monetary uncertainty are said to affect the quantity of money demanded in every country. Increases in both measures of uncertainty could induce people to allocate different proportions of their wealth between money and other financial or real assets. We test these hypotheses by using data from China. Empirical results show that both measures of uncertainty have short-run effects on the quantity of money demanded. However, short-run effects do not last into the long term. Similar results were found for the United States in previous research.

Economic Uncertainty, Monetary Uncertainty and the Demand for Money in Australia

The demand for money and its stability in Australia has received a great deal of attention in the past and has resulted in its own literature. Depending upon estimation method and period of analysis, previous research has provided mixed findings. By including a measure of economic uncertainty and a measure of monetary uncertainty (both GARCH-based) in the long-run money demand for M3, and by using the bounds testing approach under which variables could be stationary or non-stationary, we provide strong evidence that the M3 money demand in Australia is stable. Both uncertainty measures do have short-run as well as long-run effects on the demand for M3 in Australia, factors that previous research did not consider.

Exchange rate volatility and domestic consumption: a multicountry analysis

Inflation uncertainty, measured by the volatility of inflation, is said to have a negative effect on domestic consumption by making the public more cautious about their spending. Since exchange rate volatility contributes to inflation volatility, we conjecture that it could have a direct effect on domestic consumption. We demonstrate our conjecture by specifying a consumption function that includes a measure of exchange rate volatility, in addition to its usual determinants. The model is estimated for each of the 17 countries in the sample using the boundstesting approach to cointegration and error-correction modeling. The results reveal that in 12 of the countries, exchange rate volatility has short-run effects on consumption. Long-run effects are observed in only 9 countries.

Economic Uncertainty, Monetary Uncertainty, and the Demand for Money: Evidence from Asian Countries

type=main> In 1984 Nobel Lauriat Milton Friedman claimed that the decline in velocity of money or an increase in the demand for money was due to volatility of money supply. Another study argued that if monetary volatility could impact the demand for money, so can output volatility (as a measure of economic uncertainty). Both measures of uncertainty can cause people to reallocate their assets between cash and real assets that are less risky. If public become more cautious about the future, they will hold more cash today. However, if they chose to hedge against uncertain prices, they may hold more real assets and less cash. These two hypotheses are tested for Asian countries using bounds testing approach. While both measures are found to have short-run significant effects on the demand for money in almost all countries, the short-run effects last into the long run in half of the countries. Furthermore, we find positive and negative effects of both measures which are in line with previous research related to a few developed countries.

Third-country exchange rate volatility and Japanese–US trade: evidence from industry-level data

ABSTRACT As an important economic power globally as well as within Asia, Japan is susceptible to fluctuations in the yen versus both the dollar and its neighbours’ currencies. The resulting risk, from both sources, might, therefore, have important effects on Japanese trade. This study incorporates third-country exchange rate volatility (both yen-renminbi and dollar-renminbi) into a reduced form trade model for industry trade between the US and Japan. As was the case with a previous study that did not include these effects, our cointegration analysis finds that most industries are unaffected by risk. Third-country effects are, however, significant in a number of cases. Interestingly, a large share of US industries find that exports increase due to third-country risk, suggesting that this volatility is encouraging traders to reorient their trade markets by substitution.

China-Germany commodity trade and the S-curve

Purpose - Impact of currency depreciation or devaluation on the trade balance is not instantaneous. Indeed, because of adjustment lags favorable effects of depreciation is only realized in the future. This short-run dynamics of the trade balance is summarized by the S-Curve phenomenon. The purpose of this paper is to test this phenomenon by using commodity level data between China and Germany. Design/methodology/approach - The methodology is based on cross-correlation function. Findings - Out of 62 industries studied, only 22 support the S-Curve or enjoy improvement in their trade balance in the future. The list included small and large industries as well as durable and non-durable goods. Originality/value - No study in the literature has considered commodity level trade between China and Germany.

Asymmetric effects of exchange rate changes on the demand for money in China

ABSTRACT In order to account for currency substitution, the majority of recent studies relating to the specification of the demand for money include the exchange rate as another determinant of the demand for money. However, those who have estimated the demand for money in China have been unable to find any significant effects of exchange rate changes on the demand for money by the Chinese. We show that this is due to the assumption that exchange rate changes have symmetric effects. Once depreciations are separated from appreciations of the yuan, those exchange rate changes are shown to have significant effects on the demand for money in China, but in an asymmetric manner.

More evidence on the asymmetric effects of exchange rate changes on the demand for money: evidence from Asian

ABSTRACT We try to assess the impact of exchange rate changes on the demand for money in eight Asian countries. When we followed the previous literature and the standard linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach, we found exchange rate changes had no long-run significant effects in five out of the eight countries in our sample. However, when we applied the nonlinear ARDL approach and separated appreciations from depreciations, at least one of them or both had significant effects on the demand for money in India, Indonesia, Korea, the Philippines, and Singapore, supporting asymmetric effects of exchange rate changes. There was also evidence of short-run asymmetric effects.

A note on the S-curve dynamics of commodity trade between Brazil and The United States

The S-curve hypothesis postulates that the correlation coefficient between the current exchange rate and past trade balance values may be negative. However, the correlation between the current exchange rate and future values of the trade balance may be positive. Previous research using aggregate trade flows between Brazil and rest of the world find weak support for the curve. When we disaggregate Brazil’s trade flows with the U.S. and investigate 95 industries that trade between the two countries, we find support for the S-curve in 51 industries. Small and large industries and durable and non-durable commodities are found to benefit from currency devaluation.