Dana Halmová

Joint modeling of flood peak discharges, volume and duration: a case study of the Danube River in Bratislava

Abstract The study is focused on the analysis and statistical evaluation of the joint probability of the occurrence of hydrological variables such as peak discharge (Q), volume (V) and duration (t). In our case study, we focus on the bivariate statistical analysis of these hydrological variables of the Danube River in Bratislava gauging station, during the period of 1876-2013. The study presents the methodology of the bivariate statistical analysis, choice of appropriate marginal distributions and appropriate copula functions in representing the joint distribution. Finally, the joint return periods and conditional return periods for some hydrological pairs (Q-V, V-t, Q-t) were calculated. The approach using copulas can reproduce a wide range of correlation (nonlinear) frequently observed in hydrology. Results of this study provide comprehensive information about flood where a devastating effect may be increased in the case where its three basic components (or at least two of them) Q, V and t have the same significance.

Historic flood marks and flood frequency analysis of the Danube River at Bratislava, Slovakia

Abstract In this paper we focused on the history of floods and extreme flood frequency analysis of the upper Danube River at Bratislava. Firstly, we briefly describe the flood marks found on the Danube River in the region of Bratislava, Slovakia, and provide an account of the floods’ consequences. Secondly, we analyzed the annual maximum discharge series for the period 1876-2012, including the most recent flood of June 2013. Thirdly, we compare the values of T-year design discharge computed with and without incorporating the historic floods (floods of the years 1501, 1682, and 1787 into the 138-year series of annual discharge peaks). There are unfortunately only a few historic flood marks preserved in Bratislava, but there are very important and old marks in neighbouring Hainburg and other Austrian cities upstream to Passau. The calculated T-year maximum discharge of the Danube at Bratislava for the period 1876-2010 without and with historic flood values have been compared. Our analysis showed that without incorporating the historic floods from the years 1501, 1682, and 1787 the 1000-year discharge calculated only with data from the instrumented period 1876- 2013 is 14,188 m3 s-1, and it is lower compared to the 1000-year discharge of 14,803 m3 s-1 when the three historic floods are included. In general, the T-year discharge is higher throughout the whole spectrum of T-year discharges (10, 20, 50, 100, 200, 500-year discharge) when the three historic floods are included. Incorporating historic floods into a time series of maximum annual discharge seems to exert a significant effect on the estimates of low probability floods. This has important implications for flood managements and estimation of flood design discharge.

ESTIMATING FLASH FLOOD PEAK DISCHARGE IN GIDRA AND PARNÁ BASIN: CASE STUDY FOR THE 7-8 JUNE 2011 FLOOD

Estimating Flash Flood Peak Discharge in Gidra and Parná Basin: Case Study for the 7-8 June 2011 Flood We analyzed the runoff and its temporal distribution during the catastrophic flood events on river Gidra (32.9 km2) and Parná (37.86 km2) of the 7th June 2011. The catchments are located in the Small Carpathian Mountains, western Slovakia. Direct measurements and evaluation of the peak discharge values after such extreme events are emphasized in the paper including exceedance probabilities of peak flows and of their causal flash rainfall events. In the second part of the paper, plausible modeling mode is presented, using the NLC (Non Linear Cascade) rainfall-runoff model. Several hypothetical extreme flood events were simulated by the NLC model for both rivers. Also the flood runoff volumes are evaluated as basic information on the natural or artificial catchment storage. Odhad Vrcholových Prietokov v Povodí Gidry a Parnej - Prípadová Štúdia Povodne Zo 7.-8. Júna 2011 Predložený príspevok analyzuje tvorbu a priebeh odtoku počas katastrofickej povodňovej situácie na Gidre (32,9 km2) a na Parnej (37,86 km2) dňa 7. 6. 2011. Povodia týchto tokov sa nachádzajú v Malých Karpatoch na západnom Slovensku. V príspevku sa kladie dôraz na priame zameranie a vyhodnotenie kulminačných prietokov po výskyte takýchto povodní. Diskutujú sa problémy vyjadrenia pravdepodobnosti prekročenia kulminačných prietokov a dažďov, ktoré ich spôsobili. V druhej časti príspevku je prezentovaný možný spôsob modelovania povodne jednoduchým zrážkovo-odtokovým modelom NLC. Daným modelom NLC sú následne simulované prietoky Gidry v stanici Píla a Parná v stanici Horné Orešany za extrémnej hypotetickej zrážkovej udalosti. Hodnotené sú objemy odtoku počas povodní, ako základný údaj pre reálny odhad ich prirodzeného alebo umelého zadržania.

Identification of long-term high-flow regime changes in selected stations along the Danube River

Abstract The aim of the paper is to study spatial and temporal changes in the magnitude, duration and frequency of high flows in the Danube basin. A hydrological series of the mean daily discharges from 20 gauging stations (operated minimally since 1930) were used for the analysis of changes in the daily discharges. The high flow events were classified into three classes: high flow pulses, small floods, and large floods. For each year and for each class, the means of the peak discharges, the number and duration of events, and the rate of changes of the rising and falling limbs of the waves were determined. The long-term trends of the annual time series obtained were analyzed and statistically evaluated. The long-term high flow changes were found to be different in three individual high flow classes. The duration of the category of high flow pulses is decreasing at 19 stations on the Danube and is statistically significant at the Linz, Vienna, Bratislava and Orsova stations. The frequency of the high flow pulses is increasing in all 20 stations. Also, the rising and falling rates of the high flow pulse category are increasing at the majority of the stations. The long-term trends of the selected characteristics of the small floods are very similar to the trends of the high flow pulses, i.e., the duration of small floods is decreasing, and their mean number per year is increasing. In the category of large floods the changes were not proved.

Precipitation Regime and Temporal Changes in the Central Danubian Lowland Region

The aim of this paper is to investigate the statistical aspects of multiannual variability of precipitation at the Hurbanovo station, Slovakia, over 140 years (1872–2011). We compare the long-term variability of annual precipitation for Hurbanovo (Slovakia), Brno (Czech Republic), Vienna (Austria), and Mosonmagyarovar (Hungary) stations using autocorrelation and spectral analysis methods. From the long-term point of view, there is no consistent trend in the annual precipitation; only a multiannual variability has been detected. Consequently we identify changes in the distribution of annual maximum daily precipitation for Hurbanovo during different periods for winter-spring and summer-autumn seasons using histograms, empirical exceedance curves, and frequency curves of daily precipitation. Next, we calculate the periods of days without precipitation exceeding 29 days between 1872 and 2011. The longest period of days without precipitation was 83 days in 1947. The statistical analysis does not confirm our initial hypothesis that neither high daily precipitation (over 51.2 mm per day) nor long dry periods (more than 50 days without precipitation) would occur more frequently nowadays. We assume that the decrease in annual precipitation over the period 1942–2011 (compared to 1872–1941) is caused by the less frequent occurrence of daily precipitation between 0.4 and 25.6 mm.

Analyzing temporal changes in maximum runoff volume series of the Danube River

Several hypotheses claim that more extremes in climatic and hydrologic phenomena are anticipated. In order to verify such hypotheses it is inevitable to examine the past periods by thoroughly analyzing historical data. In the present study, the annual maximum runoff volumes with t-day durations were calculated for a 130-year series of mean daily discharge of Danube River at Bratislava gauge (Slovakia). Statistical methods were used to clarify how the maximum runoff volumes of the Danube River changed over two historical periods (1876-1940 and 1941-2005). The conclusion is that the runoff volume regime during floods has not changed significantly during the last 130 years.

Detection of changes in flow variability of the upper Danube between 1876-2006

It is widely acknowledged that global warming will result in an increased extremality of hydrological phenomena. As for streamflow it is anticipated that duration of low-flow conditions and flood frequency will both increase. Approving this hypothesis by statistically evaluating daily runoff characteristics depends on the availability of long and homogeneous data series. The aim of this paper is to analyze the change of the average daily flows of the Danube at Bratislava for different subsets of the period 1876-2006. The statistical tests did not reveal any increase in the extremality of daily runoff over the period 1876-2006. On the contrary, variability of daily flows of the Danube River decreases. Over the last 30 years streamflows increased in the winter-spring season and decreased in the summertime, compared to the past periods. This can be explained by the higher air temperature in the headwaters. A warmer climate causes an earlier onset of snowmelt in the winter-spring season, thus less runoff is observed in the summer with higher rates of precipitation.

Reconstruction and post-event analysis of a flash flood in a small ungauged basin: a case study in Slovak territory

Flash floods are one of the major natural hazards occurring in small streams with a negative effect on the country as well as on human lives. Heavy rainfall occurred on July 20, 2014 and July 21, 2014 and caused severe surface water flooding and a flash flood in the Malá Fatra National Park (Slovakia). The most affected was Vrátna Valley with the Varínka stream. This study presents a reconstruction and post-event analysis of a flash flood on small ungauged basin located in this protected area of Slovakia. The reconstruction included hydraulic terrain measurements on estimating the flood’s culmination and documenting the flood’s development. The measurements were taken at three cross sections of the Varínka stream. This paper is focused mainly on post-event analysis of the Varínka stream in two profiles: Stráža (gauged profile) and Tiesňavy (ungauged cross section). Subsequently, the extremeness of the flash flood was preliminary evaluated. Results of the post-event analysis showed that the July 2014 flood was not the highest flood in this area despite its catastrophic consequences. By studying historical materials, we came to the conclusion that in the past (e.g. in 1848 or 1939) some devastating floods in this area had occurred, which had disastrous consequences for the population. The second part of the study is focused on comparing this flash flood with three major floods which have occurred in Slovak territory since 1998. The first flood occurred on the 20th of July, 1998 on the Malá Svinka stream, and the two others are floods which occurred on the 7th of June, 2011 in the Small Carpathian Mountains: on the Gidra stream in Píla village and on the Parná stream in Horné Orešany village. Such comparison of flash floods from different geographical regions and different rainfall events can provide comprehensive information about their regimes, threats and disastrous effects.