Daniel A. Rascher

Do fans want close contests? A test of the uncertainty of outcome hypothesis in the National Basketball Association.

The National Basketball Association claims to sell entertainment. Part of that entertainment is close, competitive contests with uncertain outcomes. However, hometown fans want the home team to win. Hence, the optimal probability that the home team wins a game, from the perspective of maximizing demand, lays somewhere between 0.5 and 1.0. Using data from individual games for the 2001-02 season, this optimal probability was estimated to be approximately 0.66. Fans want their home team to have about twice the chance to win a game as the visiting team.

Where Did National Hockey League Fans Go During the 2004-2005 Lockout? An Analysis of Economic Competition between Leagues

Identifying and evaluating competitors is a critical aspect of operating a sport organisation. However, North American sports franchises have a limited understanding of competitors in their geographic market – particularly when calculating the degree of competition from other sport teams. Increasing the understanding of local sport competitors, whether in the same or different professional leagues, is critical not only to future franchise operations, but also for potential litigation concerning relevant product markets. This article utilises a natural experiment involving the National Hockey League’s (NHL) 2004-2005 lockout to assess the competitiveness of the NHL with the National Basketball Association (NBA) and four minor hockey leagues. On average, the five potential competitor leagues attained a 2% increase in demand, all else equal, during the lockout period. For the NBA this translates into more than US

The Effects of Roster Turnover on Demand in the National Basketball Association

1 million per team in increased incremental ticket revenue.

NBA Expansion and Relocation: A Viability Study of Various Cities

The purpose of this study was to examine the effects of roster turnover on demand in the National Basketball Association (NBA) over a five-year period (2000-2005) and compare these results to previous research on turnover in Major League Baseball (MLB). A censored regression equation was developed to examine the relationship between roster turnover and season attendance, while controlling for other potentially confounding variables in the model. The censored regression model was used to account for the capacity constraints by forecasting the level of demand beyond capacity using information from the uncensored observations. The regression model was found to be significant with a log-likelihood statistic of 110.446. Previous attendance, current winning percentage, previous winning percentage, number of all-star players, and team history were found to be significant predictors of attendance. However, the variables measuring the effects of roster turnover were not found to be significant. There were substantial differences in the effect of roster turnover on attendance in the NBA compared with MLB. In addition, these findings provide evidence for using censored regression when dealing with constrained variables. Sellouts in the NBA appear to have an effect on all of the variables in the demand model. Future research will need to be conducted to help sport managers understand the role of roster turnover in specific professional leagues and to better understand the importance of using a censored regression model.

Treatment of travel expenses by golf course patrons: Sunk or bundled costs and the First and Third Laws of Demand

An examination of possible expansion or relocation sites for the NBA is undertaken using a two-equation system requiring two-stage probit least squares to estimate. The location model forecasts the best cities for an NBA team based on the underlying characteristics of current NBA teams. The results suggest that Louisville, San Diego, Baltimore, St. Louis, and Norfolk appear to be the most promising candidates for relocation or expansion.

If we build it, will they come? Examining the effect of expansion teams and soccer-specific stadiums on Major League Soccer attendance.

To attract golf patrons, sport managers must understand consumption patterns of the golfer. Importantly, the treatment of travel costs must be understood. According to the Alchian-Allen (1964) theorem, golfers treat travel costs as bundled costs (third law of economic demand) whereas classical consumer theory indicates that golfers treat travel costs as sunk costs (first law of economic demand). The purpose of this study was to determine if golf patrons treated travel costs as sunk costs or if they treated travel costs as a bundled cost. Data from a survey of course patrons in Ohio support the treatment of travel costs as bundled costs by golf course patrons, especially those classified as tourists. The strong, positive correlation found between distance traveled and the cost of greens fees enables managers to utilize geographic segmentation in choosing to whom to market their course based upon their product’s price compared to area competitors.

An explanation of economic impact: why positive impacts can exist for smaller sports

Purpose – Two of the primary growth strategies for Major League Soccer (MLS) have been team expansion and the construction of soccer-specific stadiums. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to determine the relationship between these factors and game-specific MLS spectator attendance. Design/methodology/approach – Two multiple regression models, one using multi-level mixed effects linear regression and another using interval regression, were developed to explain the variation in attendance utilizing the two factors of interest along with other control factors that have been identified as attendance determinants in previous literature. Game-specific data were collected for five MLS seasons, 2007-2011. Findings – The two regression models explained approximately 40 percent of the variation in spectator attendance and the results showed that expansion teams and soccer-specific stadiums were significantly related to attendance. However, the effect of soccer-specific stadiums was minimized due to the extreme...

Free Ride, Take It Easy: An Empirical Analysis of Adverse Incentives Caused by Revenue Sharing

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to understand why some sports show a positive economic impact and other sports do not, and to identify a common set of explanatory factors explaining the differences. Design/methodology/approach – This explanatory research reviews the economic impact literature to identify the underlying conditions that would theoretically allow any sport, large or small, to generate positive economic effects. Findings – Nine conditions are identified that, when present, could allow a community to experience a positive economic impact from a team or stadium. These are then used to explain the discrepancy in known empirical outcomes in major and minor league baseball (MiLB). It appears as if major league teams are more likely to violate the conditions than minor league teams. This research finds theoretical support for previous suggestions that smaller teams and events may be beneficial to local economies. In doing so, it also explains previous empirical results that found some MiLB c...

Financial Risk Management: The Role of a New Stadium in Minimizing the Variation in Franchise Revenues

A fundamental belief in professional sport leagues is that competitive balance is needed to maximize demand and revenues; therefore, leagues have created policies attempting to attain proper competitive balance. Further, research posits that objectives of professional sport teams’ owners include some combination of winning and profit maximization. Although the pursuit of wins is a zero sum game, revenue generation and potential profit making is not. This article focuses upon the National Football League’s potential unintended consequences of creating the incentive for some teams to free ride on the rest of the league’s talent and brand. It examines whether an owner’s objectives to generate increased revenues and profits are potentially enhanced by operating as a continual low-cost provider while making money from the shared revenues and brand value of the league. The present evidence indicates that, overall, being a low-cost provider is more profitable than increasing player salaries in an attempt to win additional games.

The Beckham effect: examining the longitudinal impact of a star performer on league marketing, novelty, and scarcity

One of the absolutes in professional sports, and a reason for its success, is the uncertainty of the outcome of individual games, seasons, and championships. This uncertainty impacts a team’s attendance and financial operation. While leagues cultivate uncertainty through various rules such as salary caps, revenue sharing, and the amateur draft, individual franchises have to manage the result of variability in annual revenues. Not only is this due to the parity in a league but also from injuries and changes in player quality that are unexpected. Whether uncertainty or winning or the perfect combination of the two, some aspects that affect revenues can be controlled by team management more so than others. Even though on-the-field success is not easily controlled by team management, the overall quality of the experience can be impacted from, among other things, a quality stadium with comfortable seating and delectable food. This research shows that the variability in annual team revenues decreases (relative to total revenues) once a team moves into a new stadium, all else equal. The increase in predictability lowers financial risk, impacting the cost of financing and other practical operational issues like game-day staffing.