Daniel Alberto Pamplona

ECONOMIC INDICATORS FOR THE PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION AGGREGATE DEMAND ESTIMATION IN SÃO PAULO

This article investigates the application of economic indicators for the parametric estimation of public transportation aggregate demand. Since the transportation sector plays a vital role in a city infrastructure, the objective is to present a method of selecting economic indicators that assist in the study of urban public transport demand, taking as a case study the Metropolitan Region of São Paulo (MRSP). Using econometric modelling, it was estimated the effect of variables explaining total traffic in the transport system, and more specifically examine the role of fares and the employment and wage indicators. Statistical tests were performed to check the validity of the analyzed models and develop a rank of indicators according to their performance as regressors. The subset of indicators that were representative of industrial activity and more related to the local economy had the best performance as a forecasting tool.

OS CUSTOS COM ATRASOS AÉREOS E SEUS IMPACTOS: ESTUDO DE DEMANDA AEROPORTUÁRIA E SIMULAÇÃO DE CENÁRIOS DE BEM-ESTAR ECONÔMICO

This article purpose to analyze the impact of the costs of flight delays in domestic demand for air transportation. Using as a case study the Salvador Airport, an airport demand model was developed, having been made simulation scenarios of transmission costs to ticket prices in order to assess how a possible loss of competitiveness affects the demand for travel and economic well fare of passengers. The recent rise of new consumers segments meant a stimulus to the air demand especially in the case of a tourist destination and therefore a worsening of the problem on airport infrastructure. The counterfactual scenarios demand considering alternatives price transfers to passengers were built from the parameters estimated by econometric modeling using instrumental variables. The results show that an increase of 1% in the new consumer credit will result in an increase of 0,4603% of demand and an improvement of 1% in the economy will bring an increase of 0,7447% in the number of domestic passengers. The results also show that due to infrastructure problems and consequent combination of increases in crew, fuel and airport tax may reduce consumer welfare by 3,5% to 18,0% in a competition environment and from 12,1% to 25,0% in a duopoly, showing the importance of competition for the passenger’s welfare. Keywords: air demand, new consumers, economic welfare, air delays.