Daniel C. Dey

Dynamics of an anthropogenic fire regime

Human interaction with fire and vegetation occurs at many levels of human population density and cultural development, from subsistence cultures to highly technological societies. The dynamics of these interactions with respect to wildland fire are often difficult to understand and identify at short temporal scales. Dendrochronological fire histories from the Missouri Ozarks, coupled with human population data, offer a quantitative means of examining historic (1680–1990) changes in the anthropogenic fire regime. A temporal analysis of fire scar dates over the last 3 centuries indicates that the percent of sites burned and fire intervals of anthropogenic fires are conditioned by the following four limiting factors: (a) anthropogenic ignition, (b) surface fuel production, (c) fuel fragmentation, and (d) cultural behavior. During an ignition-dependent stage (fewer than 0.64 humans/km2), the percent of sites burned is logarithmically related to human population (r2 = 0.67). During a fuel-limited stage, where population density exceeds a threshold of 0.64 humans/km2, the percent of sites burned is independent of population increases and is limited by fuel production. During a fuel-fragmentation stage, regional trade allows population densities to increase above 3.4 humans/km2, and the percent of sites burned becomes inversely related to population (r2 = 0.18) as decreases in fuel continuity limit the propagation of surface fires. During a culture-dependent stage, increases in the value of timber over forage greatly reduce the mean fire interval and the percent of sites burned. Examples of the dynamics of these four stages are presented from the Current River watershed of the Missouri Ozarks.

Fire and human history of a barren-forest mosaic in southern Indiana

Abstract The purpose of this paper is to provide quantitative fire history information from a historically unique region, the oak barrens of the Interior Low Plateau Ecoregion. We sampled 27 post oak (Quercus stellata Wangenh.) trees from the Boone Creek watershed in southern Indiana. The period of tree-ring record ranged in calendar years from 1654 to 1999 and fire scar dates (n = 84) ranged from 1656 to 1992. The mean fire interval for the period 1656 to 1992 was 8.4 y and individual fire intervals ranged from 1 to 129 y. The average percentage of trees scarred at the site was 19% or about 1 in 5 trees sampled. No significant relationship was identified between fire years and drought conditions however, variability in the fire record coincided with Native American migrations and Euro-American settlement periods. Temporal variability in the fire record illustrates not only the dynamic nature of anthropogenic fire regimes but also the importance of humans in culturing presettlement barrens communities.

The theory, direction, and magnitude of ecosystem fire probability as constrained by precipitation and temperature

The effects of climate on wildland fire confronts society across a range of different ecosystems. Water and temperature affect the combustion dynamics, irrespective of whether those are associated with carbon fueled motors or ecosystems, but through different chemical, physical, and biological processes. We use an ecosystem combustion equation developed with the physical chemistry of atmospheric variables to estimate and simulate fire probability and mean fire interval (MFI). The calibration of ecosystem fire probability with basic combustion chemistry and physics offers a quantitative method to address wildland fire in addition to the well-studied forcing factors such as topography, ignition, and vegetation. We develop a graphic analysis tool for estimating climate forced fire probability with temperature and precipitation based on an empirical assessment of combustion theory and fire prediction in ecosystems. Climate-affected fire probability for any period, past or future, is estimated with given temperature and precipitation. A graphic analyses of wildland fire dynamics driven by climate supports a dialectic in hydrologic processes that affect ecosystem combustion: 1) the water needed by plants to produce carbon bonds (fuel) and 2) the inhibition of successful reactant collisions by water molecules (humidity and fuel moisture). These two postulates enable a classification scheme for ecosystems into three or more climate categories using their position relative to change points defined by precipitation in combustion dynamics equations. Three classifications of combustion dynamics in ecosystems fire probability include: 1) precipitation insensitive, 2) precipitation unstable, and 3) precipitation sensitive. All three classifications interact in different ways with variable levels of temperature.