Daniel Curtis Nepstad

Dependence of hydropower energy generation on forests in the Amazon Basin at local and regional scales

Tropical rainforest regions have large hydropower generation potential that figures prominently in many nations’ energy growth strategies. Feasibility studies of hydropower plants typically ignore the effect of future deforestation or assume that deforestation will have a positive effect on river discharge and energy generation resulting from declines in evapotranspiration (ET) associated with forest conversion. Forest loss can also reduce river discharge, however, by inhibiting rainfall. We used land use, hydrological, and climate models to examine the local “direct” effects (through changes in ET within the watershed) and the potential regional “indirect” effects (through changes in rainfall) of deforestation on river discharge and energy generation potential for the Belo Monte energy complex, one of the world’s largest hydropower plants that is currently under construction on the Xingu River in the eastern Amazon. In the absence of indirect effects of deforestation, simulated deforestation of 20% and 40% within the Xingu River basin increased discharge by 4–8% and 10–12%, with similar increases in energy generation. When indirect effects were considered, deforestation of the Amazon region inhibited rainfall within the Xingu Basin, counterbalancing declines in ET and decreasing discharge by 6–36%. Under business-as-usual projections of forest loss for 2050 (40%), simulated power generation declined to only 25% of maximum plant output and 60% of the industry’s own projections. Like other energy sources, hydropower plants present large social and environmental costs. Their reliability as energy sources, however, must take into account their dependence on forests.

Defending public interests in private lands: compliance, costs and potential environmental consequences of the Brazilian Forest Code in Mato Grosso

Land-use regulations are a critical component of forest governance and conservation strategies, but their effectiveness in shaping landholder behaviour is poorly understood. We conducted a spatial and temporal analysis of the Brazilian Forest Code (BFC) to understand the patterns of regulatory compliance over time and across changes in the policy, and the implications of these compliance patterns for the perceived costs to landholders and environmental performance of agricultural landscapes in the southern Amazon state of Mato Grosso. Landholdings tended to remain in compliance or not according to their status at the beginning of the study period. The perceived economic burden of BFC compliance on soya bean and beef producers (US

Ecosystem productivity and carbon cycling in intact and annually burnt forest at the dry southern limit of the Amazon rainforest (Mato Grosso, Brazil)

3–5.6 billion in net present value of the land) may in part explain the massive, successful campaign launched by the farm lobby to change the BFC. The ecological benefits of compliance (e.g. greater connectivity and carbon) with the BFC are diffuse and do not compete effectively with the economic benefits of non-compliance that are perceived by landholders. Volatile regulation of land-use decisions that affect billions in economic rent that could be captured is an inadequate forest governance instrument; effectiveness of such regulations may increase when implemented in tandem with positive incentives for forest conservation.

The emerging REDD+ regime of Brazil

Background: The impact of fire on carbon cycling in tropical forests is potentially large, but remains poorly quantified, particularly in the locality of the transition forests that mark the boundaries between humid forests and savannas. Aims: To present the first comprehensive description of the impact of repeated low intensity, understorey fire on carbon cycling in a semi-deciduous, seasonally dry tropical forest on infertile soil in south-eastern Amazonia. Methods: We compared an annually burnt forest plot with a control plot over a three-year period (2009–2011). For each plot we quantified the components of net primary productivity (NPP), autotrophic (R a) and heterotrophic respiration (R h), and estimated total plant carbon expenditure (PCE, the sum of NPP and R a) and carbon-use efficiency (CUE, the quotient of NPP/PCE). Results: Total NPP and R a were 15 and 4% lower on the burnt plot than on the control, respectively. Both plots were characterised by a slightly higher CUE of 0.36–0.39, compared to evergreen lowland Amazon forests. Conclusions: These measurements provide the first evidence of a distinctive pattern of carbon cycling within this transitional forest. Overall, regular understorey fire is shown to have little impact on ecosystem-level carbon fluxes.

Evolution of the Brazilian phytogeography classification systems: implications for biodiversity conservation

Brazil has exercised a leadership in the International scene about climate change mitigation and adaptation. Internally, it has been demonstrating institutional, legal and technical capacity to monitor and reduce deforestation in the Amazon, capacities also required to the development of a national Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD) system. In this article, we present the progress on the REDD+ debate under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Brazilian government trajectory towards a positive REDD+ agenda. We also discuss the relevant Brazilian legislation that can support a REDD+ regime: the National Policy for Climate Change, the Amazon state plans for deforestation reduction and the current debate and proposal of a REDD+ regime in Brazil, discussing their contexts, threats and opportunities. Funding opportunities are also discussed, with emphasis on the role of the Amazon Fund on fostering the REDD+ activities in Brazil. At the end, we propose a mechanism of REDD+ benefits sharing, based on a stock-target and flow approach.