Daniel Howell

Synergies between climate and management for Atlantic cod fisheries at high latitudes

Significance Currently many exploited fish populations, including many of the Atlantic cod stocks, are at historically low levels with widespread concern about whether contemporary management is capable of facilitating population recovery. In contrast, the spawning stock biomass of Barents Sea cod is now at an historic high. Here we demonstrate that successful management actions interacting synergistically with prevailing climate caused this increase. Warming of water masses in the Barents Sea over the last decade positively reinforced management actions. A unique and possibly generic mechanism of climate affecting marine animals at high latitudes, especially when at the polar extreme of their distribution, is identified: adjustment of the suitable feeding area. This adjustment is linked closely to community dynamics and increased stock productivity. The widespread depletion of commercially exploited marine living resources is often seen as a general failure of management and results in criticism of contemporary management procedures. When populations show dramatic and positive changes in population size, this invariably leads to questions about whether favorable climatic conditions or good management (or both) were responsible. The Barents Sea cod (Gadus morhua) stock has recently increased markedly and the spawning stock biomass is now at an unprecedented high. We identify the crucial social and environmental factors that made this unique growth possible. The relationship between vital rates of Barents Sea cod stock productivity (recruitment, growth, and mortality) and environment is investigated, followed by simulations of population size under different management scenarios. We show that the recent sustained reduction in fishing mortality, facilitated by the implementation of a “harvest control rule,” was essential to the increase in population size. Simulations show that a drastic reduction in fishing mortality has resulted in a doubling of the total population biomass compared with that expected under the former management regime. However, management alone was not solely responsible. We document that prevailing climate, operating through several mechanistic links, positively reinforced management actions. Heightened temperature resulted in an increase in the extent of the suitable feeding area for Barents Sea cod, likely offering a release from density-dependent effects (for example, food competition and cannibalism) through prolonged overlap with prey and improved adult stock productivity. Management and climate may thus interact to give a positive outlook for exploited high-latitude marine resources.

Unquantifiable uncertainty in projecting stock response to climate change: Example from North East Arctic cod

Abstract Data suggest that for some years there has been a positive relationship between the recruitment of cod in the Barents Sea and the sea temperature at the Kola section during the year of spawning. However, analysis of the most recent data indicates that this relationship no longer holds. This change in the recruitment dynamics will clearly have an impact on our understanding of future stock dynamics and long-term yield. It also highlights the impacts arising from possible future changes in similar relationships in other species and ecosystems on our ability to predict biological responses to climate change arising. This article uses a ‘STOCOBAR’ forward simulation model to evaluate North East Arctic cod dynamics under a variety of climate scenarios and recruitment hypotheses, presenting the differences in modelled spawning stock biomass under temperature-dependent and -independent recruitment situations. The divergence between the modelled populations (and hence yields) under the different recruitment hypotheses indicates the high difficulty of predicting the future development of a stock with any degree of certainty, or even with any quantifiable degree of uncertainty. These results highlight the importance of having a management regime that is robust to unpredicted and unpredictable changes in stock dynamics, and the need for management strategy evaluations under a wide range of possible future scenarios.

A trans-Atlantic examination of haddock Melanogrammus aeglefinus food habits

The food habits of Melanogrammus aeglefinus were explored and contrasted across multiple north-eastern and north-western Atlantic Ocean ecosystems, using databases that span multiple decades. The results show that among all ecosystems, echinoderms are a consistent part of M. aeglefinus diet, but patterns emerge regarding where and when M. aeglefinus primarily eat fishes v. echinoderms. Melanogrammus aeglefinus does not regularly exhibit the increase in piscivory with ontogeny that other gadoids often show, and in several ecosystems there is a lower occurrence of piscivory. There is an apparent inverse relationship between the consumption of fishes and echinoderms in M. aeglefinus over time, where certain years show high levels of one prey item and low levels of the other. This apparent binary choice can be viewed as part of a gradient of prey options, contingent upon a suite of factors external to M. aeglefinus dynamics. The energetic consequences of this prey choice are discussed, noting that in some instances it may not be a choice at all.

Spatial and temporal dynamics of European hake (Merluccius merluccius) in the North Sea

Catches of European hake (Merluccius merluccius) in the North Sea have increased substantially during the last decade, even though there is no directed commercial fishery of hake in this area. We analysed the spatial distributions of hake in the northern the parts of its range, (where it is less well-studied), using ICES international bottom trawl survey data from 1997 to 2015. We examine length-frequency distributions for (i) distinct modes enabling the assignment of fish into categories which likely corresponded to the ages 1, 2, and 3þ and (ii) patterns of seasonal spatial distribution for the different groups. Age categories 1 and 2 fish were most abundant in the northern North Sea, and appear to remain in the North Sea until 2 years of age, when they move into deeper waters. Their distribution has expanded into the western-central North Sea in the last decade. Age category 3þ fish were most abundant in the northern and central North Sea during summer, indicating a seasonal influx of large individuals into this area likely associated with spawning activity. The distribution of these older fish has gradually expanded westward in both seasons.