Daniel J. Laydon

Benefits and risks of the sanofi-pasteur dengue vaccine: Modeling optimal deployment

The first approved dengue vaccine has now been licensed in six countries. We propose that this live attenuated vaccine acts like a silent natural infection in priming or boosting host immunity. A transmission dynamic model incorporating this hypothesis fits recent clinical trial data well and predicts that vaccine effectiveness depends strongly on the age group vaccinated and local transmission intensity. Vaccination in low-transmission settings may increase the incidence of more severe “secondary-like” infection and, thus, the numbers hospitalized for dengue. In moderate transmission settings, we predict positive impacts overall but increased risks of hospitalization with dengue disease for individuals who are vaccinated when seronegative. However, in high-transmission settings, vaccination benefits both the whole population and seronegative recipients. Our analysis can help inform policy-makers evaluating this and other candidate dengue vaccines.

Genome-wide determinants of proviral targeting, clonal abundance and expression in natural HTLV-1 infection.

The regulation of proviral latency is a central problem in retrovirology. We postulate that the genomic integration site of human T lymphotropic virus type 1 (HTLV-1) determines the pattern of expression of the provirus, which in turn determines the abundance and pathogenic potential of infected T cell clones in vivo. We recently developed a high-throughput method for the genome-wide amplification, identification and quantification of proviral integration sites. Here, we used this protocol to test two hypotheses. First, that binding sites for transcription factors and chromatin remodelling factors in the genome flanking the proviral integration site of HTLV-1 are associated with integration targeting, spontaneous proviral expression, and in vivo clonal abundance. Second, that the transcriptional orientation of the HTLV-1 provirus relative to that of the nearest host gene determines spontaneous proviral expression and in vivo clonal abundance. Integration targeting was strongly associated with the presence of a binding site for specific host transcription factors, especially STAT1 and p53. The presence of the chromatin remodelling factors BRG1 and INI1 and certain host transcription factors either upstream or downstream of the provirus was associated respectively with silencing or spontaneous expression of the provirus. Cells expressing HTLV-1 Tax protein were significantly more frequent in clones of low abundance in vivo. We conclude that transcriptional interference and chromatin remodelling are critical determinants of proviral latency in natural HTLV-1 infection.

The Long-Term Safety, Public Health Impact, and Cost-Effectiveness of Routine Vaccination with a Recombinant, Live-Attenuated Dengue Vaccine (Dengvaxia): A Model Comparison Study.

Background Large Phase III trials across Asia and Latin America have recently demonstrated the efficacy of a recombinant, live-attenuated dengue vaccine (Dengvaxia) over the first 25 mo following vaccination. Subsequent data collected in the longer-term follow-up phase, however, have raised concerns about a potential increase in hospitalization risk of subsequent dengue infections, in particular among young, dengue-naïve vaccinees. We here report predictions from eight independent modelling groups on the long-term safety, public health impact, and cost-effectiveness of routine vaccination with Dengvaxia in a range of transmission settings, as characterised by seroprevalence levels among 9-y-olds (SP9). These predictions were conducted for the World Health Organization to inform their recommendations on optimal use of this vaccine. Methods and Findings The models adopted, with small variations, a parsimonious vaccine mode of action that was able to reproduce quantitative features of the observed trial data. The adopted mode of action assumed that vaccination, similarly to natural infection, induces transient, heterologous protection and, further, establishes a long-lasting immunogenic memory, which determines disease severity of subsequent infections. The default vaccination policy considered was routine vaccination of 9-y-old children in a three-dose schedule at 80% coverage. The outcomes examined were the impact of vaccination on infections, symptomatic dengue, hospitalised dengue, deaths, and cost-effectiveness over a 30-y postvaccination period. Case definitions were chosen in accordance with the Phase III trials. All models predicted that in settings with moderate to high dengue endemicity (SP9 ≥ 50%), the default vaccination policy would reduce the burden of dengue disease for the population by 6%–25% (all simulations: –3%–34%) and in high-transmission settings (SP9 ≥ 70%) by 13%–25% (all simulations: 10%– 34%). These endemicity levels are representative of the participating sites in both Phase III trials. In contrast, in settings with low transmission intensity (SP9 ≤ 30%), the models predicted that vaccination could lead to a substantial increase in hospitalisation because of dengue. Modelling reduced vaccine coverage or the addition of catch-up campaigns showed that the impact of vaccination scaled approximately linearly with the number of people vaccinated. In assessing the optimal age of vaccination, we found that targeting older children could increase the net benefit of vaccination in settings with moderate transmission intensity (SP9 = 50%). Overall, vaccination was predicted to be potentially cost-effective in most endemic settings if priced competitively. The results are based on the assumption that the vaccine acts similarly to natural infection. This assumption is consistent with the available trial results but cannot be directly validated in the absence of additional data. Furthermore, uncertainties remain regarding the level of protection provided against disease versus infection and the rate at which vaccine-induced protection declines. Conclusions Dengvaxia has the potential to reduce the burden of dengue disease in areas of moderate to high dengue endemicity. However, the potential risks of vaccination in areas with limited exposure to dengue as well as the local costs and benefits of routine vaccination are important considerations for the inclusion of Dengvaxia into existing immunisation programmes. These results were important inputs into WHO global policy for use of this licensed dengue vaccine.

Estimating T-cell repertoire diversity: limitations of classical estimators and a new approach

A highly diverse T-cell receptor (TCR) repertoire is a fundamental property of an effective immune system, and is associated with efficient control of viral infections and other pathogens. However, direct measurement of total TCR diversity is impossible. The diversity is high and the frequency distribution of individual TCRs is heavily skewed; the diversity therefore cannot be captured in a blood sample. Consequently, estimators of the total number of TCR clonotypes that are present in the individual, in addition to those observed, are essential. This is analogous to the ‘unseen species problem’ in ecology. We review the diversity (species richness) estimators that have been applied to T-cell repertoires and the methods used to validate these estimators. We show that existing approaches have significant shortcomings, and frequently underestimate true TCR diversity. We highlight our recently developed estimator, DivE, which can accurately estimate diversity across a range of immunological and biological systems.

Quantification of HTLV-1 Clonality and TCR Diversity.

Estimation of immunological and microbiological diversity is vital to our understanding of infection and the immune response. For instance, what is the diversity of the T cell repertoire? These questions are partially addressed by high-throughput sequencing techniques that enable identification of immunological and microbiological “species” in a sample. Estimators of the number of unseen species are needed to estimate population diversity from sample diversity. Here we test five widely used non-parametric estimators, and develop and validate a novel method, DivE, to estimate species richness and distribution. We used three independent datasets: (i) viral populations from subjects infected with human T-lymphotropic virus type 1; (ii) T cell antigen receptor clonotype repertoires; and (iii) microbial data from infant faecal samples. When applied to datasets with rarefaction curves that did not plateau, existing estimators systematically increased with sample size. In contrast, DivE consistently and accurately estimated diversity for all datasets. We identify conditions that limit the application of DivE. We also show that DivE can be used to accurately estimate the underlying population frequency distribution. We have developed a novel method that is significantly more accurate than commonly used biodiversity estimators in microbiological and immunological populations.

Strongyloidiasis and infective dermatitis alter human T lymphotropic virus-1 clonality in vivo.

Human T-lymphotropic Virus-1 (HTLV-1) is a retrovirus that persists lifelong by driving clonal proliferation of infected T-cells. HTLV-1 causes a neuroinflammatory disease and adult T-cell leukemia/lymphoma. Strongyloidiasis, a gastrointestinal infection by the helminth Strongyloides stercoralis, and Infective Dermatitis associated with HTLV-1 (IDH), appear to be risk factors for the development of HTLV-1 related diseases. We used high-throughput sequencing to map and quantify the insertion sites of the provirus in order to monitor the clonality of the HTLV-1-infected T-cell population (i.e. the number of distinct clones and abundance of each clone). A newly developed biodiversity estimator called “DivE” was used to estimate the total number of clones in the blood. We found that the major determinant of proviral load in all subjects without leukemia/lymphoma was the total number of HTLV-1-infected clones. Nevertheless, the significantly higher proviral load in patients with strongyloidiasis or IDH was due to an increase in the mean clone abundance, not to an increase in the number of infected clones. These patients appear to be less capable of restricting clone abundance than those with HTLV-1 alone. In patients co-infected with Strongyloides there was an increased degree of oligoclonal expansion and a higher rate of turnover (i.e. appearance and disappearance) of HTLV-1-infected clones. In Strongyloides co-infected patients and those with IDH, proliferation of the most abundant HTLV-1+ T-cell clones is independent of the genomic environment of the provirus, in sharp contrast to patients with HTLV-1 infection alone. This implies that new selection forces are driving oligoclonal proliferation in Strongyloides co-infection and IDH. We conclude that strongyloidiasis and IDH increase the risk of development of HTLV-1-associated diseases by increasing the rate of infection of new clones and the abundance of existing HTLV-1+ clones.

Clonality of HTLV-2 in Natural Infection

Human T-lymphotropic virus type 1 (HTLV-1) and type 2 (HTLV-2) both cause lifelong persistent infections, but differ in their clinical outcomes. HTLV-1 infection causes a chronic or acute T-lymphocytic malignancy in up to 5% of infected individuals whereas HTLV-2 has not been unequivocally linked to a T-cell malignancy. Virus-driven clonal proliferation of infected cells both in vitro and in vivo has been demonstrated in HTLV-1 infection. However, T-cell clonality in HTLV-2 infection has not been rigorously characterized. In this study we used a high-throughput approach in conjunction with flow cytometric sorting to identify and quantify HTLV-2-infected T-cell clones in 28 individuals with natural infection. We show that while genome-wide integration site preferences in vivo were similar to those found in HTLV-1 infection, expansion of HTLV-2-infected clones did not demonstrate the same significant association with the genomic environment of the integrated provirus. The proviral load in HTLV-2 is almost confined to CD8+ T-cells and is composed of a small number of often highly expanded clones. The HTLV-2 load correlated significantly with the degree of dispersion of the clone frequency distribution, which was highly stable over ∼8 years. These results suggest that there are significant differences in the selection forces that control the clonal expansion of virus-infected cells in HTLV-1 and HTLV-2 infection. In addition, our data demonstrate that strong virus-driven proliferation per se does not predispose to malignant transformation in oncoretroviral infections.

Lifelong Socio Economic Position and biomarkers of later life health: testing the contribution of competing hypotheses

The relative contribution of early or later life Socio Economic Position (SEP) to later life health is not fully understood and there are alternative hypotheses about the pathways through which they may influence health. We used data from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing with a formal approach for the identification of mediating factors in order to investigate alternative hypotheses about life course influences on biomarkers of later life health. We found that early life SEP predicts physical health at least 65 years later. However, a more complicated pattern of associations than that implied by previous findings was also observed. Age group specific effects emerged, with current SEP dominating the effect on later life physical health and fibrinogen levels in participants under 65, while early life SEP had a more prominent role in explaining inequalities in physical health for men and women over 75. We extend previous findings on mid adulthood and early old age, to old age and the beginnings of late old age. The complexity of our findings highlights the need for further research on the mechanisms that underlie the association between SEP and later life health.

HTLV-1 proviral integration sites differ between asymptomatic carriers and patients with HAM/TSP

BackgroundHTLV-1 causes proliferation of clonal populations of infected T cells in vivo, each clone defined by a unique proviral integration site in the host genome. The proviral load is strongly correlated with odds of the inflammatory disease HTLV-1-associated myelopathy/tropical spastic paraparesis (HAM/TSP). There is evidence that asymptomatic HTLV-1 carriers (ACs) have a more effective CD8 + T cell response, including a higher frequency of HLA class I alleles able to present peptides from a regulatory protein of HTLV-1, HBZ. We have previously shown that specific features of the host genome flanking the proviral integration site favour clone survival and spontaneous expression of the viral transactivator protein Tax in naturally infected PBMCs ex vivo. However, the previous studies were not designed or powered to detect differences in integration site characteristics between ACs and HAM/TSP patients. Here, we tested the hypothesis that the genomic environment of the provirus differs systematically between ACs and HAM/TSP patients, and between individuals with strong or weak HBZ presentation.MethodsWe used our recently described high-throughput protocol to map and quantify integration sites in 95 HAM/TSP patients and 68 ACs from Kagoshima, Japan, and 75 ACs from Kumamoto, Japan. Individuals with 2 or more HLA class I alleles predicted to bind HBZ peptides were classified ‘strong’ HBZ binders; the remainder were classified ‘weak binders’.ResultsThe abundance of HTLV-1-infected T cell clones in vivo was correlated with proviral integration in genes and in areas with epigenetic marks associated with active regulatory elements. In clones of equivalent abundance, integration sites in genes and active regions were significantly more frequent in ACs than patients with HAM/TSP, irrespective of HBZ binding and proviral load. Integration sites in genes were also more frequent in strong HBZ binders than weak HBZ binders.ConclusionClonal abundance is correlated with integration in a transcriptionally active genomic region, and these regions may promote cell proliferation. A clone that reaches a given abundance in vivo is more likely to be integrated in a transcriptionally active region in individuals with a more effective anti-HTLV-1 immune response, such those who can present HBZ peptides or those who remain asymptomatic.

Pre-morbid human T-lymphotropic virus type I proviral load, rather than percentage of abnormal lymphocytes, is associated with an increased risk of aggressive adult T-cell leukemia/lymphoma

Out of 153 newly referred human T-lymphotropic virus type I infected patients, 42 (27%) had 5% or more abnormal lymphocytes, consistent with the diagnosis of smoldering adult T-cell leukemia/lymphoma. The abnormal lymphocyte percentage was higher in patients with human T-lymphotropic virus type I associated inflammatory disease compared with asymptomatic carriers (P=0.006). Over 4.5 years median follow up, 4 patients, all with 10 or more human T-lymphotropic virus type I DNA copies/100 peripheral blood mononuclear cells at presentation, but only one with 5% or more abnormal lymphocytes at presentation, developed adult T-cell leukemia/lymphoma. Thus, high pre-morbid human T-lymphotropic virus type I proviral load, rather than fulfilment of the classification criteria for smoldering adult T-cell leukemia/lymphoma, was associated with an increased risk of developing aggressive adult T-cell leukemia/lymphoma.