Daniel Jeffrey Searson

Integrated assessment of pedestrian head impact protection in testing secondary safety and autonomous emergency braking

Pedestrian impact testing is used to provide information to the public about the relative level of protection provided by different vehicles to a struck pedestrian. Autonomous Emergency Braking (AEB) is a relatively new technology that aims to reduce the impact speed of such crashes. It is expected that vehicles with AEB will pose less harm to pedestrians, and that the benefit will come about through reductions in the number of collisions and a change in the severity of impacts that will still occur. In this paper, an integration of the assessment of AEB performance and impact performance is proposed based on average injury risk. Average injury risk is calculated using the result of an impact test and a previously published distribution of real world crash speeds. A second published speed distribution is used that accounts for the effects of AEB, and reduced average risks are implied. This principle allows the effects of AEB systems and secondary safety performance to be integrated into a single measure of safety. The results are used to examine the effect of AEB on Euro NCAP and ANCAP assessments using previously published results on the likely effect of AEB. The results show that, given certain assumptions about AEB performance, the addition of AEB is approximately the equivalent of increasing Euro NCAP test performance by one band, which corresponds to an increase in the score of 25% of the maximum.

Pedestrian Headform Testing: Inferring Performance at Impact Speeds and for Headform Masses Not Tested, and Estimating Average Performance in a Range of Real-World Conditions

Objective: Tests are routinely conducted where instrumented headforms are projected at the fronts of cars to assess pedestrian safety. Better information would be obtained by accounting for performance over the range of expected impact conditions in the field. Moreover, methods will be required to integrate the assessment of secondary safety performance with primary safety systems that reduce the speeds of impacts. Thus, we discuss how to estimate performance over a range of impact conditions from performance in one test and how this information can be combined with information on the probability of different impact speeds to provide a balanced assessment of pedestrian safety. Method: Theoretical consideration is given to 2 distinct aspects to impact safety performance: the test impact severity (measured by the head injury criterion, HIC) at a speed at which a structure does not bottom out and the speed at which bottoming out occurs. Further considerations are given to an injury risk function, the distribution of impact speeds likely in the field, and the effect of primary safety systems on impact speeds. These are used to calculate curves that estimate injuriousness for combinations of test HIC, bottoming out speed, and alternative distributions of impact speeds. Results: The injuriousness of a structure that may be struck by the head of a pedestrian depends not only on the result of the impact test but also the bottoming out speed and the distribution of impact speeds. Example calculations indicate that the relationship between the test HIC and injuriousness extends over a larger range than is presently used by the European New Car Assessment Programme (Euro NCAP), that bottoming out at speeds only slightly higher than the test speed can significantly increase the injuriousness of an impact location and that effective primary safety systems that reduce impact speeds significantly modify the relationship between the test HIC and injuriousness. Conclusions: Present testing regimes do not take fully into account the relationship between impact severity and variations in impact conditions. Instead, they assess injury risk at a single impact speed. Hence, they may fail to differentiate risks due to the effects of bottoming out under different impact conditions. Because the level of injuriousness changes across a wide range of HIC values, even slight improvements to very stiff structures need to be encouraged through testing. Indications are that the potential of autonomous braking systems is substantial and needs to be weighted highly in vehicle safety assessments.

The effect of impact speed on the HIC obtained in pedestrian headform tests

Pedestrian headform impact tests are generally carried out at a fixed impact speed, which varies depending on the test protocol in use. Thus, it may be desirable to extrapolate a single test result to higher and lower test speeds. This paper investigates the influence of impact speed on the Head Injury Criterion (HIC) and the peak dynamic displacement. The relationship between impact speed and these test measurements is first considered analytically using a linear spring model, and then empirically using the results of 29 headform tests on seven different locations. The results indicate that power functions can be used to predict the effect of impact speed, with exponents of approximately 2.5 for HIC and 0.8 for peak displacement. These relationships might be used for assessing head impact performance over a wider range of speeds than are presently tested.

Use of age-period-cohort models to estimate effects of vehicle age, year of crash and year of vehicle manufacture on driver injury and fatality rates in single vehicle crashes in New South Wales, 2003-2010.

A novel application of age-period-cohort methods are used to explain changes in vehicle based crash rates in New South Wales, Australia over the period 2003-2010. Models are developed using vehicle age, crash period and vehicle cohort to explain changes in the rate of single vehicle driver fatalities and injuries in vehicles less than 13 years of age. Large declines in risk are associated with vehicle cohorts built after about 1996. The decline in risk appears to have accelerated to 12 percent per vehicle cohort year for cohorts since 2004. Within each cohort, the risk of crashing appears to be a minimum at two years of age and increases as the vehicle ages beyond this. Period effects (i.e., other road safety measures) between 2003 and 2010 appear to have contributed to declines of up to about two percent per annum to the driver-fatality single vehicle crash rate, and possibly only negligible improvements to the driver-injury single vehicle crash rate. Vehicle improvements appear to have been responsible for a decline in per-vehicle crash risk of at least three percent per calendar year for both severity levels over the same period. Given the decline in risk associated with more recent vehicle cohorts and the dynamics of fleet turnover, continued declines in per-vehicle crash risk over coming years are almost certain.