Daniel Kovacs

Flood Risk Management: US Army Corps of Engineers and Layperson Perceptions

Recent severe storm experiences in the U.S. Gulf Coast illustrate the importance of an integrated approach to flood preparedness planning that harmonizes stakeholder and agency efforts. Risk management decisions that are informed by and address decision maker and stakeholder risk perceptions and behavior are essential for effective risk management policy. A literature review and two expert models/mental models studies were undertaken to identify areas of importance in the flood risk management process for layperson, non-USACE-expert, and two USACE-expert groups. In characterizing and mapping stakeholder beliefs about risks in the literature onto current risk management practice, recommendations for accommodating and changing stakeholder perceptions of flood risks and their management are identified. Needs of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) flood preparedness and response program are discussed in the context of flood risk mental models.

Cognitive barriers in floods risk perception and management: A mental modeling framework and illustrative example

Recent severe storm experiences in the U.S. Gulf Coast illustrate the importance of an integrated approach to natural disaster preparedness planning, one that harmonizes stakeholder and implementing agency efforts. Risk management decisions that are informed by and address decision maker and stakeholder risk perceptions and behavior are essential for effective risk management policy. Formal (versus ad hoc) analyses of risk manager and stakeholder cognition represent an important first step. Mental modeling has been successfully used to reveal, characterize and map stakeholder beliefs about risks in order to develop more effective cross-stakeholder communication strategies. This paper summarizes diagram-based representation of mental models, and presents an example specific to U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) flood preparedness and response program needs. Understanding flood risk mental models will enable USACE to bridge differences across and within stakeholder groups, cultures and disciplines internally and externally involved in natural disaster response in order to develop approaches for handling floods and other emerging challenges.

Climate change risk management: a Mental Modeling application

The potential impacts of climate change are varied and highly uncertain, and pose a significant challenge to agencies charged with managing environmental risks. This paper presents a comprehensive and structured Mental Modeling approach to elicit, organize and present relevant information from experts and stakeholders about the factors influencing environmental risk management in the face of climate change. We present and review an initiative undertaken by the United States Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) to characterize climate change challenges to USACE environmental risk management activities, and to identify gaps with respect to science, engineering, and organizational processes for addressing these challenges. By employing Mental Modeling, the research has characterized the influences of climate change on USACE environmental risk management, and aggregating recommendations from 28 experts. In addition, the study identifies the most important opportunities to improve organizational response to climate change, ranging from focused research and development of technical capabilities to broad paradigm shifts and systemic organizational improvements within the USACE environmental risk management programs. This study demonstrates that Mental Modeling is a useful tool for understanding complex problems, identifying gaps, and formulating strategies, and can be used by a multitude of organizations and agencies.

A Moment of Mental Model Clarity: Response to Jones et al. 2011

Jones et al. (2011) review a variety of elicitation methods for identifying and describing stakeholders’ mental models that have been successfully deployed in a variety of natural resource management (NRM) contexts. These methods are broadly categorized into two classes. The first is direct elicitation, where stakeholders work in conjunction with an analyst to describe and produce a graphical representation of the model in an iterative and interactive fashion. This is distinguished from indirect elicitation, where a research team utilizes textual information from interviews, websites, and other documents to extract a graphical model via content analysis and/or the help of specially-designed computer programs. The authors provide an explanation of the theoretical underpinnings of the methods and challenges in applying the construct to natural resource management.

Supporting and Expanding the Scope and Application of Mental Modeling: Current and Future Software Developments

This chapter provides an overview of how the Mental Modeling approach is being supported and expanded to enable a broad range of applications by Decision Partners and its Certified Applications Professionals and licensees. Section 14.1 provides an overview of the proprietary CASS™ (Cognitive Analysis Software Suite) developed by Decision Partners to improve the effectiveness and efficiency of the company’s research analysis capacity. Section 14.2 provides a case study of the first application of breakthrough stakeholder engagement software platform, Interactive Decision Support Technology™ (IDST™) comprising Mental Modeling Technology™ combined with state-of-the-science artificial intelligence and Synthetic Interview® technology. In Sect. 14.3, we discuss current software development that enables systematic resilience “engineering” through the integration of Mental Modeling Technology™ with RiskLogik’s state-of-the-science advanced risk analysis, cyber resilience, geospatial analysis, and constructive simulation tools.

Influence of the CHEMM Tool on Planning, Preparedness, and Emergency Response to Hazardous Chemical Exposures: A Customized Strategic Communications Process Based on Mental Modeling

This chapter presents an application of the Mental Modeling approach applied to strategic stakeholder engagement in support of the development of the Chemical Hazards Emergency Medical Management Tool (CHEMM). CHEMM is an informational system designed to provide first responders, first receivers, and other potential users access to comprehensive information needed to prepare for and respond to chemical hazard emergency events via a robust, user-friendly interface. The Specialized Information Services Division (SIS) of the National Library of Medicine (NLM) led to the development of CHEMM in collaboration with CHEMM stakeholders. Decision Partners supported the NLM CHEMM Project Team (CHEMM Team) with implementation of the Mental Modeling approach for a science-based, strategic stakeholder engagement on the development of CHEMM.

U.S. Census Bureau Integrated Communications Services for Data Dissemination: Mental Modeling Case Study with Key Internal Expert Stakeholders

This chapter presents an application of the Mental Modeling approach applied to strategic stakeholder engagement for support in establishing a customer-centric and data-driven method of communications in support of the Census Bureau’s (CB’s) mission to make data and analyses from its surveys and censuses available to the general public and other key audiences.

An Introduction to Mental Modeling

The goal of this book is to introduce readers to Mental Modeling, an evidence-based process to facilitate decision making by describing the values and knowledge of individuals involved in the decision-making process. Regardless of the decision, the fundamental cognitive task is the same. People must think through the options, the risks and benefits—pros and cons—consider the uncertainties and weigh the trade-offs as they go. Over the ensuing decades of application, Mental Modeling has been in continuous development, extending from initial applications in risk communication and risk management into a broad range of other applications, from strategic planning, to stakeholder engagement to change management and technology transfer and adoption.

Flood Risk Management

Severe storms in 2005 along the U.S. Gulf Coast illuminated the importance of blending stakeholder and agency efforts in an integrated approach to flood preparedness planning. Risk management policy relies on the information provided by decision-makers and stakeholders on their risk perceptions and behavior. The flood risk management process for layperson, non-U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) experts, and two USACE expert groups were studied through a literature review and the creation of two expert models. Recommendations to both incorporate and alter stakeholder perceptions of flood risks were identified by characterizing and mapping stakeholders’ perceptions about the risks as described in the literature. This chapter will discuss mental models in the context of the USACE’s need for flood preparedness and response.

Adaptive Management for Climate Change

Government and private sector organizations are collectively adopting predicted impacts of climate change into strategic planning processes. High uncertainty posed by climate change makes such preparation difficult at best, where a wide array of potential scenarios and decision alternatives are available for discussion on the subject. Adaptive management (National Academies, Adaptive management for water resources project planning, The National Academies Press, Washington, DC, 2004) is a robust approach to decision making for management of complex systems. The purpose of this chapter is to demonstrate the application of Mental Modeling to enable the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers to incorporate adaptive management principles into its business practices so that it is better able to handle the potential impacts of climate change.