Daniel Kuhn

Data-Driven Distributionally Robust Optimization Using the Wasserstein Metric: Performance Guarantees and Tractable Reformulations

We consider stochastic programs where the distribution of the uncertain parameters is only observable through a finite training dataset. Using the Wasserstein metric, we construct a ball in the space of (multivariate and non-discrete) probability distributions centered at the uniform distribution on the training samples, and we seek decisions that perform best in view of the worst-case distribution within this Wasserstein ball. The state-of-the-art methods for solving the resulting distributionally robust optimization problems rely on global optimization techniques, which quickly become computationally excruciating. In this paper we demonstrate that, under mild assumptions, the distributionally robust optimization problems over Wasserstein balls can in fact be reformulated as finite convex programs—in many interesting cases even as tractable linear programs. Leveraging recent measure concentration results, we also show that their solutions enjoy powerful finite-sample performance guarantees. Our theoretical results are exemplified in mean-risk portfolio optimization as well as uncertainty quantification.

Worst-Case Value at Risk of Nonlinear Portfolios

Portfolio optimization problems involving value at risk VaR are often computationally intractable and require complete information about the return distribution of the portfolio constituents, which is rarely available in practice. These difficulties are compounded when the portfolio contains derivatives. We develop two tractable conservative approximations for the VaR of a derivative portfolio by evaluating the worst-case VaR over all return distributions of the derivative underliers with given first-and second-order moments. The derivative returns are modelled as convex piecewise linear or---by using a delta--gamma approximation---as possibly nonconvex quadratic functions of the returns of the derivative underliers. These models lead to new worst-case polyhedral VaR WPVaR and worst-case quadratic VaR WQVaR approximations, respectively. WPVaR serves as a VaR approximation for portfolios containing long positions in European options expiring at the end of the investment horizon, whereas WQVaR is suitable for portfolios containing long and/or short positions in European and/or exotic options expiring beyond the investment horizon. We prove that---unlike VaR that may discourage diversification---WPVaR and WQVaR are in fact coherent risk measures. We also reveal connections to robust portfolio optimization. This paper was accepted by Dimitris Bertsimas, optimization.

Robust portfolio optimization with derivative insurance guarantees

Robust portfolio optimization aims to maximize the worst-case portfolio return given that the asset returns are allowed to vary within a prescribed uncertainty set. If the uncertainty set is not too large, the resulting portfolio performs well under normal market conditions. However, its performance may substantially degrade in the presence of market crashes, that is, if the asset returns materialize far outside of the uncertainty set. We propose a novel robust optimization model for designing portfolios that include European-style options. This model trades off weak and strong guarantees on the worst-case portfolio return. The weak guarantee applies as long as the asset returns are realized within the prescribed uncertainty set, while the strong guarantee applies for all possible asset returns. The resulting model constitutes a convex second-order cone program, which is amenable to efficient numerical solution procedures. We evaluate the model using simulated and empirical backtests and analyze the impact of the insurance guarantees on the portfolio performance.

A Stochastic Programming Approach for QoS-Aware Service Composition

We formulate the service composition problem as a multi-objective stochastic program which simultaneously optimizes the following quality of service (QoS) parameters: workflow duration, service invocation costs, availability, and reliability. All of these quality measures are modelled as decision-dependent random variables. Our model minimizes the average value-at- risk (AVaR) of the workflow duration and costs while imposing constraints on the workflow availability and reliability. AVaR is a popular risk measure in decision theory which quantifies the expected shortfall below some percentile of a loss distribution. By replacing the random durations and costs with their expected values, our risk-aware model reduces to the nominal problem formulation prevalent in literature. We argue that this nominal model can lead to overly risky decisions. Finally, we report on the scalability properties of our model.

Maximizing the net present value of a project under uncertainty

We address the maximization of a projects expected net present value when the activity durations and cash flows are described by a discrete set of alternative scenarios with associated occurrence probabilities. In this setting, the choice of scenario-independent activity start times frequently leads to infeasible schedules or severe losses in revenues. We suggest to determine an optimal target processing time policy for the project activities instead. Such a policy prescribes an activity to be started as early as possible in the realized scenario, but never before its (scenario-independent) target processing time. We formulate the resulting model as a global optimization problem and present a branch-and-bound algorithm for its solution. Extensive numerical results illustrate the suitability of the proposed policy class and the runtime behavior of the algorithm.

Generalized Bounds for Convex Multistage Stochastic Programs

This book investigates convex multistage stochastic programs whose objective and constraint functions exhibit a generalized nonconvex dependence on the random parameters. Although the classical Jensen and Edmundson-Madansky type bounds or their extensions are generally not available for such problems, tight bounds can systematically be constructed under mild regularity conditions. A distinct primal-dual symmetry property is revealed when the proposed bounding method is applied to linear stochastic programs. Exemplary applications are studied to assess the performance of the theoretical concepts in situations of practical relevance. It is shown how market power, lognormal stochastic processes, and risk-aversion can be properly handled in a stochastic programming framework. Numerical experiments show that the relative gap between the bounds can typically be reduced to a few percent at reasonable problem dimensions.

SQPR: Stream query planning with reuse

When users submit new queries to a distributed stream processing system (DSPS), a query planner must allocate physical resources, such as CPU cores, memory and network bandwidth, from a set of hosts to queries. Allocation decisions must provide the correct mix of resources required by queries, while achieving an efficient overall allocation to scale in the number of admitted queries. By exploiting overlap between queries and reusing partial results, a query planner can conserve resources but has to carry out more complex planning decisions. In this paper, we describe SQPR, a query planner that targets DSPSs in data centre environments with heterogeneous resources. SQPR models query admission, allocation and reuse as a single constrained optimisation problem and solves an approximate version to achieve scalability. It prevents individual resources from becoming bottlenecks by re-planning past allocation decisions and supports different allocation objectives. As our experimental evaluation in comparison with a state-of-the-art planner shows SQPR makes efficient resource allocation decisions, even with a high utilisation of resources, with acceptable overheads.

Multistage stochastic portfolio optimisation in deregulated electricity markets using linear decision rules

The deregulation of electricity markets increases the financial risk faced by retailers who procure electric energy on the spot market to meet their customers’ electricity demand. To hedge against this exposure, retailers often hold a portfolio of electricity derivative contracts. In this paper, we propose a multistage stochastic mean–variance optimisation model for the management of such a portfolio. To reduce computational complexity, we apply two approximations: we aggregate the decision stages and solve the resulting problem in linear decision rules (LDR). The LDR approach consists of restricting the set of recourse decisions to those affine in the history of the random parameters. When applied to mean–variance optimisation models, it leads to convex quadratic programs. Since their size grows typically only polynomially with the number of periods, they can be efficiently solved. Our numerical experiments illustrate the value of adaptivity inherent in the LDR method and its potential for enabling scalability to problems with many periods.

K-Adaptability in Two-Stage Robust Binary Programming

Over the last two decades, robust optimization has emerged as a computationally attractive approach to formulate and solve single-stage decision problems affected by uncertainty. More recently, robust optimization has been successfully applied to multistage problems with continuous recourse. This paper takes a step toward extending the robust optimization methodology to problems with integer recourse, which have largely resisted solution so far. To this end, we approximate two-stage robust binary programs by their corresponding K -adaptability problems, in which the decision maker precommits to K second-stage policies, here -and-now, and implements the best of these policies once the uncertain parameters are observed. We study the approximation quality and the computational complexity of the K -adaptability problem, and we propose two mixed-integer linear programming reformulations that can be solved with off-the-shelf software. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our reformulations for stylized instances of supply chain design, route planning, and capital budgeting problems.

Valuation of electricity swing options by multistage stochastic programming

Electricity swing options are Bermudan-style path-dependent derivatives on electrical energy. We consider an electricity market driven by several exogenous risk factors and formulate the pricing problem for a class of swing option contracts with energy and power limits as well as ramping constraints. Efficient numerical solution of the arising multistage stochastic program requires aggregation of decision stages, discretization of the probability space, and reparameterization of the decision space. We report on numerical results and discuss analytically tractable limiting cases.