Daniel M. Rosyid

Development of Scilab-based structural reliability analysis software using Monte Carlo Simulated Finite Element Method

So far, the calculation of structural reliability using common methods always demands a closed form equation of performance function. This necessitates distribution information of loads and strength. Monte Carlo FEM method for structural reliability analysis was proposed by Guoliang et.al. However the proposed method tries to avoid simulation. Its result have some serious error. Whereas, simulation is a very powerful to analyze structural reliability. Improving the Guoliang method, this research presents how Finite Element Methods can be incorporated into Monte Carlo Simulation and develops a software based on open source code Scilab, to analyze the reliability of Plane Truss structure. This paper describes a technique based on simulations that reliability analysis of complex structure are not of a problem and of low effort. In the first step of this research, an algorithm is established by applying Monte Carlo Simulation into Finite Element Method. Then software functions in Scilab are developed based on it. For the validation, the software is used to calculate responses of simple Plane Truss structure. The results are compared to manual calculation using basic structural analysis. This research have produced a fresh procedure and simple software to analyze the Plane Truss reliability based on the incorporation of Monte Carlo Simulation with Finite Element Method.

Sustainability Analysis of Coastal Management in the Madura Strait

Coastal area has a strategic value for the development of national economy and improving peoples welfare. However, coastal area is also extremely vulnerable to environmental damage and destruction. Therefore, the need of sustainable management with regard to the dimension of ecological, economic, social and institutional is important. This research is aimed to overview the current condition of coastal area in the Madura strait and to formulate coastal management strategies in term of sustainable development. Multi Dimensional Scaling (MDS) method was used in this research. Five dimensions (ecology, economy, social, technology and institution) were measured. The results showed that in general, coastal management of Madura Strait was less to moderately sustainable. It means that coastal management of the area has given enough contribution for the community; however the condition of the environment should be supervised closely to provide continuous benefit for future economics of the region.

Project delay analysis of HRSG

Completion of HRSG (Heat Recovery Steam Generator) fabrication project sometimes is not sufficient with the targeted time written on the contract. The delay on fabrication process can cause some disadvantages for fabricator, including forfeit payment, delay on HRSG construction process up until HRSG trials delay. In this paper, the author is using semi quantitative on HRSG pressure part fabrication delay with configuration plant 1 GT (Gas Turbine) + 1 HRSG + 1 STG (Steam Turbine Generator) using bow-tie analysis method. Bow-tie analysis method is a combination from FTA (Fault tree analysis) and ETA (Event tree analysis) to develop the risk matrix of HRSG. The result from FTA analysis is use as a threat for preventive measure. The result from ETA analysis is use as impact from fabrication delay.

Dynamic Modeling System for Analysis Smelter Development Plan in National Baluran Park, Situbondo

This Studies in several countries, the waste from the nickel smelter cause adverse effects on the environment, which indirectly affect the economy condition. Plan development of Nickel smelter which is directly adjacent to the national park Baluran in Situbondo quite disturbing some people. National park has a beach about 48 km long with a stretch of coral reef 5-10 meters out to sea into creating high productivity in these waters, especially various types of reef fish such as grouper. The highest numbers of catches are in district Banyuputih where the glaze was located 1734.65 tons in 2011, followed by the District Besuki with catches of 964.20 tons. In general activities in the nickel smelting are result some waste such as heavy metals such as Cu, Fe, Zn, Mn, waste heat from cooling water and wastewater canal SO2. Heavy metals and waste heatare potential adverse impact on the coral reefs, fish capture fisheries and the other marine commodities. While waste SO2 causes acid rain damage potential plant of agriculture, fisheries not only in the park but it could be damaging crops in the National Park that have an effect on the scenery, the number of visitors, and reduce operating revenues derived from the national park. We use the concept of gaming between actors to estimate the associated policy goal of this smelter. As for observing the behavior of the system over the next 10-30 years used the dynamics modeling system with 3 scenarios. Optimist scenario(there is Green smelter), excisting scenario(Condition without smelter) and pessimist scenario(there is non green smelter).

Project Delay Analysis on Jacket Structure Construction

The development process of jacket structure is not always in accordance with the planned schedule in advance. Many factors affect the planning failure, among others, the time or the planned schedule, budgeted costs, equipment and material needed, the human resources (manpower) and hours of labor (man hours). The need for a systematic manner or method to overcome the problem of delays in the project. This study analyzes the impact of delays on development projects jacket structure in PT. XYZ using the Event Tree Analysis (ETA). Methods Event Tree Analysis (ETA) is an analytical technique used to evaluate the processes and events that lead to the possibility of failure. Results of analysis using the Event Tree Analysis (ETA) showed that the construction project is completed in the fabrication of the jacket structure but experiencing delays between 1 day to 8 weeks (2 months). This is caused by several factors and are subject to a fine or a penalty of 0.1% per day of the total contract value of development projects jacket structure Rp 64,620,178,000.-. Fines range between Rp 64,620,178.- to Rp 2,843,287,832. -.

Management of Baluran National Park Resources for Coastal Ecotourism Based on Suitability and Carrying Capacity

The development and expansion of tourism region is a complex phenomenon and it is necessary to be studied interdisciplinary. Nowadays, the development of tourism region in Baluran National Park increases rapidly. In this case, the growth and expansion of tourism region has a close relation with sustainability, tourist growth restrictions, and carrying capacity, three aspects must be concerned in managing tourism. The purpose of this research is to manage the sustainability of coastal tourism using carrying capacity concept. Based on the results, there are four coastal tourism activities which suitable in Baluran National Park, there are, beach tourism, snorkelling, diving, and mangrove excursion. Beach tourism in the recreation category with a total area of 92 ha can hold up to 9200 tourists/day, diving area up to 189 ha can hold up to 1512 tourists/day, snorkelling area up to 101 ha can hold up to 673 tourists/day and mangrove excursion with an area of 272 ha can hold up to10880 tourists/day. Thus, the total tourists per day for the coastal tourism is 22.265 person.

Reliability Analysis of APN-A Offshore Jacket Using Monte Carlo Finite Element Method

Reliability analysis is one of important parameter to ensure the safety of structure during its life time. Especially for large structure which has a high consequences. Conventional method is unable to give an accurate reliability result for a complex structure. Here is presented how MCFEM work to do reliability analysis of complex structure i.e. APN-A Offshore Jacket. Simulation was carried out until 100,000 number of cycles and obtained the reliability of APN-A offshore jacket i.e. 0.8806.

Development Efforts of Coastal Community after Lapindo Mud Flow

Lapindo is waste disposal the mud that comes out of the PT. Lapindo Brantas.Inc in Porong, Sidoarjo East Java, which has lasted for more than 9 years ago. With the volume bursts of 105 m3/day and take time to stop bursts estimated at 8907 years. This sludge can affect surrounding communities. The purpose of this research is to the development of coastal communities in Jabon post Lapindo mudflow, by using Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) Data collected through questionnaires, interviews, observation and documentation. In empowering coastal communities Jabon there are three actors involved, government Sidoarjo, PT Lapindo Brantas Inc., and coastal communities Jabon. To determine the parties involved. The most appropriate use of sub-criteria to support the main criteria. From the results obtained the most demanded by the public as a result of the governments disaster PT. Lapindo Brantas Inc. The effects of the mudflow society expects improvement, especially in terms of the economy of coastal communities Jabon.

Estimation of the corvette SIGMA motion in missile firing mission

This paper discusses about the estimation of warships motion when shooting a missile to reach a moving target. We use Extended Kalman Filter-Unknown Input-Without Direct Feedthrough (EKF-UI-WDF). The proposed method is an extension of Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) and the method is able to simultaneously estimate the states and unknown input. Unknown input is any inputs without prior information from a given state of a model. In this work, the ship is Corvette Sigma and the target acceleration is defined as the unknown input. In this work, the missile acceleration use APN guidance law. According to the numerical results, the estimation errors are very small, i.e. less than.

Evaluation of Delay Factors in Jacket Structure Project

Offshore platforms are used worldwide for drrilling, proceesing and even storage purposes. The offshore platforms can be fixed to the seabed, or can be float. The fixed platform namely jacket structure is a complex construction and design. Construction process of the jacket structure sometimes is not in accordance with the time schedule. There are many factors affect them, limited time, equipment, materials required, and cost of human resources. In order to analyze the delay factors of a jacket project requires a systematic approach. This paper will discusses the delay factors of the construction of Jacket Structure using FTA (Fault Tree Analysis). Data is obtained from one fabrication company which involve their experts to identify the contribution of delay project. There are three main factors causing the Jacket project delay namely Long Process of Procurement, Late Schecule of Assembly Structure, and Bad Management.