Daniel Munther

A Mathematical Model for Pathogen Cross-Contamination Dynamics During Produce Wash

One of the main challenges for the fresh-food produce industry is to ensure that the produce is free from harmful pathogens. A potential area of risk is due to cross-contamination in a sanitizing chlorine wash-cycle, where the same water is used to wash contaminated as well as non-contaminated produce. However, this is also an area where effective intervention strategies are possible, provided we have a good understanding of the mechanism of cross-contamination. Based on recent experimental work by Luo, Y. etxa0al. A pilot plant scale evaluation of a new process aid for enhancing chlorine efficacy against pathogen survival and cross-contamination during produce wash, International Journal of Food Microbiology, 158 (2012), 133-139, we have built mathematical models that allow us to quantify the amount of cross-contamination of Escherichia coli O157:H7 from spinach to lettuce, and assessed the efficacy of the associated wash-cycle protocols.

Enhanced surveillance on food-borne disease outbreaks: Dynamics of cross-contamination in biocidal wash procedure

Understanding the geographic and temporal spread of food-borne diseases associated with fresh produce is crucial for informing adequate surveillance and control. As a first step towards this goal, we develop and analyze a novel three stage model at the processing/sanitization juncture in the fresh produce supply chain. The key feature of our model is its ability to describe the dynamics of cross-contamination during commercial wash procedures. In general, we quantify the degree of cross-contamination in terms of model parameters. Applying these results in the case of Escherichia coli O157:H7 contamination of fresh-cut romaine lettuce, we identify the mean wash time and free chlorine concentration as critical parameters. In addition to showing how these parameters affect contamination levels, we recommend that in order to prevent potential source misidentification, at least 2.2 mg/L of free chlorine should be used during a wash lasting at least 30s.

Unraveling the dose-response puzzle of L. monocytogenes: A mechanistic approach

Food-borne disease outbreaks caused by Listeria monocytogenes continue to impose heavy burdens on public health in North America and globally. To explore the threat L. monocytogenes presents to the elderly, pregnant woman and immuno-compromised individuals, many studies have focused on in-host infection mechanisms and risk evaluation in terms of dose-response outcomes. However, the connection of these two foci has received little attention, leaving risk prediction with an insufficient mechanistic basis. Consequently, there is a critical need to quantifiably link in-host infection pathways with the dose-response paradigm. To better understand these relationships, we propose a new mathematical model to describe the gastro-intestinal pathway of L. monocytogenes within the host. The model dynamics are shown to be sensitive to inoculation doses and exhibit bi-stability phenomena. Applying the model to guinea pigs, we show how it provides useful tools to identify key parameters and to inform critical values of these parameters that are pivotal in risk evaluation. Our preliminary analysis shows that the effect of gastro-environmental stress, the role of commensal microbiota and immune cells are critical for successful infection of L. monocytogenes and for dictating the shape of the dose-response curves.

Individual based modeling and analysis of pathogen levels in poultry chilling process

Pathogen control during poultry processing critically depends on more enhanced insight into contamination dynamics. In this study we build an individual based model (IBM) of the chilling process. Quantifying the relationships between typical Canadian processing specifications, water chemistry dynamics and pathogen levels both in the chiller water and on individual carcasses, the IBM is shown to provide a useful tool for risk management as it can inform risk assessment models. We apply the IBM to Campylobacter spp. contamination on broiler carcasses, illustrating how free chlorine (FC) sanitization, organic load in the water, and pre-chill carcass pathogen levels affect pathogen levels of post-chill broilers. In particular, given a uniform distribution of Campylobacter levels on incoming poultry we quantify the efficacy of FC control in not only reducing pathogen levels on average, but also the variation of pathogen levels on poultry exiting the chill tank. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the absence/presence of FC input dramatically influences when, during a continuous chilling operation, cross-contamination will be more likely.

Advancing risk assessment: mechanistic dose–response modelling of Listeria monocytogenes infection in human populations

The utility of characterizing the effects of strain variation and individual/subgroup susceptibility on dose–response outcomes has motivated the search for new approaches beyond the popular use of the exponential dose–response model for listeriosis. While descriptive models can account for such variation, they have limited power to extrapolate beyond the details of particular outbreaks. By contrast, this study exhibits dose–response relationships from a mechanistic basis, quantifying key biological factors involved in pathogen–host dynamics. An efficient computational algorithm and geometric interpretation of the infection pathway are developed to connect dose–response relationships with the underlying bistable dynamics of the model. Relying on in vitro experiments as well as outbreak data, we estimate plausible parameters for the human context. Despite the presence of uncertainty in such parameters, sensitivity analysis reveals that the host response is most influenced by the pathogen–immune system interaction. In particular, we show how variation in this interaction across a subgroup of the population dictates the shape of dose–response curves. Finally, in terms of future experimentation, our model results provide guidelines and highlight vital aspects of the interplay between immune cells and particular strains of Listeria monocytogenes that should be examined.

With-in host dynamics of L. monocytogenes and thresholds for distinct infection scenarios

The case fatality and illness rates associated with L. monocytogenes continue to pose a serious public health burden despite the significant efforts and control protocol administered by private and public sectors. Due to the advance in surveillance and improvement in detection methodology, the knowledge of sources, transmission routes, growth potential in food process units and storage, effect of pH and temperature are well understood. However, the with-in host growth and transmission mechanisms of L. monocytogenes, particularly within the human host, remain unclear, largely due to the limited access to scientific experimentation on the human population. In order to provide insight towards the human immune response to the infection caused by L. monocytogenes, we develop a with-in host mathematical model. The model explains, in terms of biological parameters, the states of asymptomatic infection, mild infection and systemic infection leading to listeriosis. The activation and proliferation of T-cells are found to be critical for the susceptibility of the infection. Utilizing stability analysis and numerical simulation, the ranges of the critical parameters relative to infection states are established. Bifurcation analysis shows the impact of the differences of these parameters on the dynamics of the model. Finally, we present model applications in regards to predicting the risk potential of listeriosis relative to the susceptible human population.