Daniel P. Moynihan

Ethnicity : theory and experience

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Data and Dogma in Public Policy

Abstract Statistics play an important role in the affairs of state. The development over the last 70 years of national economic and product accounts, the creation in 1946 of a Council of Economic Advisers, and advancements in the collection and analysis of economic data have strengthened the ability of policy makers to understand the forces that affect the U.S. economy, anticipate economic changes, and take steps to minimize the adverse effects of market fluctuations. Although it is often correctly said that the business cycle has not been repealed, it is also true that in the last half-century measurement tools have helped produce a remarkable record of virtually uninterrupted economic growth in the United States. Yet problems remain, particularly because data in the social sciences are inherently more prone to error than data in the natural sciences. Perhaps most important, errors in measuring consumer prices can have enormous consequences for the economy and body politic, because the Consumer Price Ind...

Patterns of Ethnic Succession: Blacks and Hispanics in New York City

Ethnic succession is one of the pronounced rhythms in the life of New York City. Political scientists will recognize it as a homely variant of Paretos circulation of elites, and it seems fair to take it as a measure of the vigor of our society and our capacity for self-renewal. In the late 1950s Nathan Glazer and I, collaborating on a study of the ethnic groups of New York City, saw ethnic succession as a central dynamic of the citys organizational life. At that time, for example, the Irish had dominated the political life of the city for generations; yet just as clearly they were departing that scene, and this was the opening observation in our chapter devoted to them. Indeed, in the aftermath of the municipal elections of 1977 there was (for what a diligent researcher would probably find to be the first time in at least a century) not a single Irish name on the Board of Estimate, the central governing body of the city made up of the mayor, the comptroller, the president of the city council, and the five borough presidents. Ethnic succession was not, however, the central theme of our study, which had as its more elemental purpose the mere assertion that ethnicity was still a force in the life of New York City (and by extension, the nation) and was not going away. The first proposition received grudging assent at the time; at election season the editorials deploring the persistence of the balanced ticket were as predictable as the accompanying admonition to all citizens to make certain to vote. (So much for the influence of editorialists. The balanced ticket cheerfully persists while voting participation steadily declines!) But the thought that