Daniel Polsky

Coronary Revascularization Trends in the United States, 2001-2008

CONTEXT Coronary revascularization is among the most common hospital-based major interventional procedures performed in the United States. It is uncertain how new revascularization technologies, new clinical evidence from trials, and updated clinical guidelines have influenced the volume and distribution of coronary revascularizations over the past decade. OBJECTIVE To examine national time trends in the rates and types of coronary revascularizations. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PATIENTS A serial cross-sectional study with time trends of patients undergoing coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery or percutaneous coronary interventions (PCIs) between 2001 and 2008 at US hospitals in the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Projects Nationwide Inpatient Sample, which reports inpatient coronary revascularizations. These data were supplemented by Medicare outpatient hospital claims. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Annual procedure rates of coronary revascularizations, CABG surgery, and PCI. RESULTS A 15% decrease (P < .001) in the annual rate of coronary revascularizations was observed from 2001-2002 to 2007-2008. The annual CABG surgery rate decreased steadily from 1742 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1663-1825) CABG surgeries per million adults per year in 2001-2002 to 1081 (95% CI, 1032-1133) CABG surgeries per million adults per year in 2007-2008 (P < .001), but PCI rates did not significantly change (3827 [95% CI, 3578-4092] PCI per million adults per year in 2001-2002 vs 3667 [95% CI, 3429-3922] PCI per million adults per year in 2007-2008, P = .74). Between 2001 and 2008, the number of hospitals in the Nationwide Inpatient Sample providing CABG surgery increased by 12% (212 in 2001 vs 241 in 2008, P = .03), and the number of PCI hospitals increased by 26% (246 in 2001 vs 331 in 2008, P < .001). The median CABG surgery caseload per hospital decreased by 28% (median [interquartile range], 253 [161-458] in 2001 vs 183 [98-292] in 2008; P < .001) and the number of CABG surgery hospitals providing fewer than 100 CABG surgeries per year increased from 23 (11%) in 2001 to 62 (26%) in 2008 (P < .001). CONCLUSIONS In US hospitals between 2001 and 2008, a substantial decrease in CABG surgery utilization rates was observed, but PCI utilization rates remained unchanged.

Confidence Intervals for Cost-Effectiveness Ratios: A Comparison of Four Methods

We evaluated four methods for computing confidence intervals for cost-effectiveness ratios developed from randomized controlled trials: the box method, the Taylor series method, the nonparametric bootstrap method and the Fieller theorem method. We performed a Monte Carlo experiment to compare these methods. We investigated the relative performance of each method and assessed whether or not it was affected by differing distributions of costs (normal and log normal) and effects (10% absolute difference in mortality resulting from mortality rates of 25% versus 15% in the two groups as well as from mortality rates of 55% versus 45%) or by differing levels of correlation between the costs and effects (correlations of -0.50, -0.25, 0.0, 0.25 and 0.50). The principal criterion used to evaluate the performance of the methods was the probability of miscoverage. Symmetrical miscoverage of the intervals was used as a secondary criterion for evaluating the four methods. Overall probabilities of miscoverage for the nonparametric bootstrap method and the Fieller theorem method were more accurate than those for the other the methods. The Taylor series method had confidence intervals that asymmetrically underestimated the upper limit of the interval. Confidence intervals for cost-effectiveness ratios resulting from the nonparametric bootstrap method and the Fieller theorem method were more dependably accurate than those estimated using the Taylor series or box methods. Routine reporting of these intervals will allow individuals using cost-effectiveness ratios to make clinical and policy judgments to better identify when an intervention is a good value for its cost.

Racial profiling: the unintended consequences of coronary artery bypass graft report cards.

Background—Although public release of quality information through report cards is intended to improve health care, there may be unintended consequences of report cards, such as physicians avoiding high-risk patients to improve their ratings. If physicians believe that racial and ethnic minorities are at higher risk for poor outcomes, report cards could worsen existing racial and ethnic disparities in health care. Methods and Results—To investigate the impact of New Yorks CABG report card on racial and ethnic disparities in cardiac care, we estimated differences in the use of CABG, PTCA, and cardiac catheterization between white versus black and Hispanic patients hospitalized for acute myocardial infarction in New York before and after New Yorks first CABG report card was released, adjusting for patient and hospital characteristics and national changes in racial and ethnic disparities in cardiac care. The racial and ethnic disparity in CABG use significantly increased in New York immediately after New Yorks CABG report card was released, whereas disparities did not change significantly in the comparison states. There was no differential change in racial and ethnic disparities between New York and the comparison states in the use of cardiac catheterization or PTCA after the CABG report card was released. Over time, this increase in racial and ethnic disparities decreased to levels similar to those before the release of report cards. Conclusions—The release of CABG report cards in New York was associated with a widening of the disparity in CABG use between white versus black and Hispanic patients.

Job Stability in the United States

Two key attributes of a job are its wage and its duration. Much has been made of changes in the wage distribution in the 1980s, but little attention has been given to job durations since Hall. We fill this void by examining the temporal evolution of job retention rates in U.S. labor markets, using data assembled from the sequence of Current Population Survey job tenure supplements. There have been relative declines in job stability for some of the groups that experienced the sharpest declines in relative wages. However, we find that aggregate job retention rates have remained stable.

Psychotropic Medication Use Among Medicaid-Enrolled Children With Autism Spectrum Disorders

OBJECTIVE. The objective of this study was to provide national estimates of psychotropic medication use among Medicaid-enrolled children with autism spectrum disorders and to examine child and health system characteristics associated with psychotropic medication use. METHODS. This cross-sectional study used Medicaid claims for calendar year 2001 from all 50 states and Washington, DC, to examine 60641 children with an autism spectrum disorder diagnosis. Logistic regression with random effects was used to examine the child, county, and state factors associated with psychotropic medication use. RESULTS. Of the sample, 56% used at least 1 psychotropic medication, 20% of whom were prescribed ≥3 medications concurrently. Use was common even in children aged 0 to 2 years (18%) and 3 to 5 years (32%). Neuroleptic drugs were the most common psychotropic class (31%), followed by antidepressants (25%) and stimulants (22%). In adjusted analyses, male, older, and white children; those who were in foster care or in the Medicaid disability category; those who received additional psychiatric diagnoses; and those who used more autism spectrum disorder services were more likely to have used psychotropic drugs. Children who had a diagnosis of autistic disorder or who lived in counties with a lower percentage of white residents or greater urban density were less likely to use such medications. CONCLUSIONS. Psychotropic medication use is common among even very young children with autism spectrum disorders. Factors unrelated to clinical presentation seem highly associated with prescribing practices. Given the limited evidence base, there is an urgent need to assess the risks, benefits, and costs of medication use and understand the local and national policies that affect medication use.

Morbidity and mortality of colorectal carcinoma surgery differs by insurance status

Uninsured and underinsured patients are reported to be at an increased risk for impaired access to healthcare, delayed medical treatment, and the receipt of substandard care. These differences in care may result in disparities in surgical outcomes among patients with different types of insurance. In the current study, the authors examined associations between the insurance provider and short‐term surgical outcomes after surgery for colorectal carcinoma and evaluated the extent to which two risk factors (comorbid disease and admission type) might explain any observed association.

Estimating country‐specific cost‐effectiveness from multinational clinical trials

Because costs and outcomes of medical treatments may vary from country to country in important ways, decision makers are increasingly interested in having data based on their own countrys health care situations. This paper proposes methods for estimating country-specific cost-effectiveness ratios from data available from multinational clinical trials. It examines how clinical and economic outcomes interact when estimating treatment effects on cost and proposes empirical methods for capturing these interactions and incorporating them when making country-specific estimates. We use data from a multinational phase III trial of tirilazad mesylate for the treatment of subarachnoid haemorrhage to illustrate these methods. Our findings suggest that it is possible for meaningful country-by-country differences to be found in such trial data. These differences can be useful in informing reimbursement, utilization, and other decisions taken at the country level.

The 2004 Marshall Urist Award: Delays until surgery after hip fracture increases mortality

The objective of this study was to analyze whether a delay in time from admission until surgical treatment increased the mortality rate for patients with a closed hip fracture. We used the day of the week of admission as an instrumental variable to pseudorandomize patients. We analyzed 18,209 Medicare recipients who were 65 years of age or older and had surgical treatment for a closed hip fracture. Patients for whom the delay between admission and surgery was 2 days or more had a 17% higher chance of dying by Day 30. Using instrumental variables analysis, we found a similar 15% increased risk of mortality in patients with delays until surgery of 2 or more days. Based on these results, we found that a delay of 2 or more days significantly increased the mortality rate. This suggests that delay to surgery independently affects mortality, therefore additional study on the effect of smaller delays on outcome is needed.

Factors affecting decisions to seek treatment for sick children in Kerala, India

The purpose of this study was to measure the effects of social and economic variables, disease-related variables, and child gender on the decisions of parents in Kerala, India, to seek care for their children and on their choice of providers in the allopathic vs. the alternative system. A case-control analysis was done using data from the Kerala section of the 1996 Indian National Family Health Survey, a cross-sectional survey of a probability sample of households conducted by trained interviewers with a close-ended questionnaire. Of the 469 children who were eligible for this study because they had at least one common symptom suggestive of acute respiratory illness or diarrhea during the 2 weeks before the interview, 78 (17%) did not receive medical care, while the remaining 391 (83%) received medical care. Of the 391 children who received medical care, 342 (88%) received allopathic medical care, and 48 (12%) received alternative medical care. In multivariable analyses, parents chose not to seek medical care for their children significantly more often when the illness was mild, the child had a specific diagnosis, the mother had previously made fewer antenatal visits, and the family had a higher economic status. When parents sought medical care for their children, care was sought significantly more often in the alternative provider system when the child was a boy, the family lived in a rural area, and the family had a lower social class. We conclude that, in Kerala, disease severity and economic status predict whether children with acute respiratory infection or diarrhea are taken to medical providers. In contrast, most studies of this issue carried out in other populations have identified economic status as the primary predictor of medical system utilization. Also in Kerala, the gender of the child did not influence whether or not the child was taken for treatment but did influence whether care was sought in the alternative or the allopathic system.

Appointment Availability after Increases in Medicaid Payments for Primary Care

BACKGROUND Providing increases in Medicaid reimbursements for primary care, a key provision of the Affordable Care Act (ACA), raised Medicaid payments to Medicare levels in 2013 and 2014 for selected services and providers. The federally funded increase in reimbursements was aimed at expanding access to primary care for the growing number of Medicaid enrollees. The reimbursement increase expired at the end of 2014 in most states before policymakers had much empirical evidence about its effects. METHODS We measured the availability of and waiting times for appointments in 10 states during two periods: from November 2012 through March 2013 and from May 2014 through July 2014. Trained field staff posed as either Medicaid enrollees or privately insured enrollees seeking new-patient primary care appointments. We estimated state-level changes over time in a stable cohort of primary care practices that participated in Medicaid to assess whether willingness to provide appointments for new Medicaid enrollees was related to the size of increases in Medicaid reimbursements in each state. RESULTS The availability of primary care appointments in the Medicaid group increased by 7.7 percentage points, from 58.7% to 66.4%, between the two time periods. The states with the largest increases in availability tended to be those with the largest increases in reimbursements, with an estimated increase of 1.25 percentage points in availability per 10% increase in Medicaid reimbursements (P=0.03). No such association was observed in the private-insurance group. During the same periods, waiting times to a scheduled new-patient appointment remained stable over time in the two study groups. CONCLUSIONS Our study provides early evidence that increased Medicaid reimbursement to primary care providers, as mandated in the ACA, was associated with improved appointment availability for Medicaid enrollees among participating providers without generating longer waiting times. (Funded by the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation.).