Daniel Rauhut

Ageing shocks and short-run regional labour market dynamics in a spatial panel VAR approach

ABSTRACT Using a flexible spatial panel VAR model for a small-scale labour market system, we investigate the dynamic interdependences between changes in the demographic structure and the labour market performance of a regional economy. With a particular focus on ageing shocks, we describe an increase in the share of elderly in regional population due to exogenous changes in the institutional context, such as pension reforms. The regional labour market implications of an ageing shock are then tested with regard to the effects on employment growth, unemployment and labour participation rate. Our results based on a sample of 71 Scandinavian regions point to negative regional labour market effects of an ageing shock implying a reduction in employment growth and a temporarily declining labour participation rate, while the unemployment rate increases. Importantly, spatial spillovers amplify these negative impacts through a marginalization of macro-regional labour markets. As a robustness check, we reverse the causal ordering and analyze the responses to a positive macroeconomic shock which initially increases employment growth. We find direct and spatially indirect adjustment patterns characterized by a reduction of the unemployment rate, an increase in the labour participation rate and a decrease in the share of elderly in the population.

Polycentricity – one concept or many?

ABSTRACT This paper aims to discuss polycentrism and its implications. Polycentricity plays a key role in EU Cohesion Policy and has done so since 1999 when the notion was included in the European Spatial Development Perspective. Politically, it emerged as a key tool because of its ability to fuse together the two primary and conflicting perceptions of spatial–economic development, cohesion and competitiveness. No agreed definition of polycentricity exists. Furthermore, different actors and disciplines define polycentrism differently. The absence of a concise and coherent definition makes it difficult to measure polycentricity. Moreover, several studies have concluded that it is difficult to identify empirical evidence to support the positive claims made in its name. Polycentrism is assumed toolbox to reduce regional disparities, but polycentric countries display higher regional disparities than monocentric countries. Polycentric countries do not perform better than monocentric countries with regard to competitiveness and GDP/cap. As such, this paper concludes that not only does the political meaning of polycentricity struggle over aims with the inherit dichotomy at its heart, it also struggles in terms of basic credibility.

The Rise of Macro-Regions in Europe

The term “macro-region” is a political construct, mainly discussed in EU policy documents. The definition of a macro-region is deliberately vague and fuzzy, allowing for a diverse set up of governance arrangements and topics to be addressed. We identify three main trajectories of the rise of macro-regions in Europe: the development of European integration and an increasing focus on Cohesion and Regional policies; the changed geopolitical situation following European enlargements in 2004 and 2007; and the pre-existence of different forms of cooperation within these perimeters. Macro-regional cooperation has not initially generated new EU institutions, new EU legislation or new EU funding, but despite or maybe because of these constraints, macro-regions have attained considerable political commitment. A committee of representatives of the partner countries steers the overall progress of the macro-regions and acts as the decision-making body to guide their general direction. The potential avenues for the future of macro-regions are not clear.

Migration Governance in Three European Cities: New Local Paradigms?

Immigration and the diversification of urban populations are among the major challenges being faced by European cities today. Over the past two decades, social and political debates have grown increasingly critical of ‘multiculturalism’, which is blamed for the loss of social cohesion and national identities. Therefore, national governments have shifted towards restrictive integration regimes whereby immigrants are required to adapt to the putative national culture. While studies of migration governance have traditionally focused on the national level, there is increasing interest in how local governments––who are most directly confronted with migration-related issues––view integration. New concepts used by city governments, such as diversity or interculturalism, would indicate a departure from assimilatory national rhetoric and/or policy, but their meaning and application remain unclear. Through a comparison of three European cities––Amsterdam, Stockholm and Vienna––we seek to understand the different uses of these concepts and relate them to the specific urban and national context.