Daniel Salisbury

Open Source Intelligence in the Twenty-First Century

This edited volume takes a fresh look at the subject of open source intelligence (OSINT), exploring both the opportunities and the challenges that this emergent area offers at the beginning of the twenty-first century. In particular, it explores the new methodologies and approaches that technological advances have engendered, while at the same time considering the risks associated with the pervasive nature of the Internet. Drawing on a diverse range of experience and expertise, the book begins with a number of chapters devoted to exploring the uses and value of OSINT in a general sense, identifying patterns, trends and key areas of debate. The focus of the book then turns to the role and influence of OSINT in three key areas of international security nuclear proliferation; humanitarian crises; and terrorism. The book offers a timely discussion on the merits and failings ofOSINT and provides readers with an insight into the latest and most original research being conducted in this area.

Why do entities get involved in proliferation? Exploring the criminology of illicit WMD-related trade

ABSTRACT This article seeks to provide an original approach to weapons of mass destruction (WMD)-related illicit trade by drawing on criminology and focusing on the transactional level. Specifically, the article discusses the “rational-choice” model as a way to understand an entity’s involvement in illicit trade, and considers also the limitations of this approach, as well as the role that opportunity plays in an actor’s decision to engage in illicit trade. The article draws the conclusion that the prospects of deterring illicit trade using export controls and related criminal sanctions are limited. Beyond the clear limitations of the rational-choice model, the prospects of deterring illicit WMD trade are limited by the low levels of certainty in export-control enforcement, something that the criminology literature suggests is of greater importance than severity of punishment in deterring crime. Nonproliferation successes are more likely to be found in further efforts to develop tools to address proliferation opportunities, an area that has already seen much work. Efforts to further raise illicit WMD-related trade from the realms of “invisible crime” are necessary, including further conceptual research on illicit trade.

Exploring the Changing Role of Chinese Entities in WMD Proliferation

This paper seeks to provide an original examination of the nature of the proliferation of sensitive materials and technologies by Chinese entities. A number of publications have attempted to understand the issue of proliferation stemming from businesses based in China, with many having commented on the efforts undertaken both by international actors and by the Chinese government to prevent it. However, relatively few scholars have sought, in any systematic and sustained way, to understand the types of Chinese companies involved in proliferation and the evolution of their behaviour. This paper seeks to argue and account for the declining role of, and concern regarding, Chinese state-owned enterprise in the global proliferation problem. Different accounts for this change, and the relating proliferation challenge posed by China, are examined.

UNSCR 1540 Implementation: Challenges Past and Present

This chapter seeks to set out the principal challenges in the implementation of resolution 1540. Using evidence from the resolutions, meeting records, Committee Chair’s briefings, and secondary sources, it argues that the challenges to implementation of the resolution have reflected both broader conceptual issues, and, more recently, practical implementation issues. The chapter begins by considering ‘broader challenges’ to the resolution’s implementation, notably those relating to political will. The second section considers challenges that are more practical in nature. The chapter will conclude with a final section looking at some opportunities that may help to overcome these challenges.

Conclusions: The Future of UNSCR 1540

Resolution 1540 provides a unique tool in the effort to prevent nuclear proliferation. It is legally binding, universal in scope and complementary to other non-proliferation treaties, instruments and tools. The resolution’s first decade saw positive national implementation trends, and it has helped to solidify a norm against WMD proliferation. Despite this, it remains unclear how much safer, if at all, the world is as a result of the adoption of resolution 1540. Challenges remain, including many gaps in implementation around the world, the lack of a clear definition regarding the phase ‘full implementation’, and sustainability of the resolution past 2021. Achieving full implementation, however it is measured, will require a redoubling of efforts to build capacity and share experience. Further consideration will have to be given to how best to marshal and prioritise the application of resources.