Daniel T. Walz

A Research Agenda for Computers and Small Business

Two factors have contributed to the increasing use of computers within the small-business environment: decreasing prices of computer technology and the advent of “friendlier” (simpler and easier to use) systems, languages, and development tools. Many studies in recent years have investigated the role of computers in small business. Primarily, this research has sought to survey the current use of computers by small firms, to illustrate the kinds of small-business decisions appropriate for automation or computer support, and to suggest methods of software and hardware evaluation. This paper proposes an agenda for future research that focuses on the factors affecting the success of small-business computing. These factors are considered in the context of the computing functions life-cycle within the firm, the organizational structure of the computing function, end-user computing, planning, and computer support for decision making.

A contemporary analysis of Mexican stock market volatility

It is found that there has been an increase in the volatility of the Mexican stock market over the past decade. However, employment of a GARCH model in conjunction with Tsays outlier methodology demonstrates that the increased volatility is associated with outliers, not the underlying processes of the market. The association of outlier shocks with specific events indicates that market shocks were generated mainly by domestic factors during the first half of the 1990s, while international factors were the primary culprits after 1995.

The Perfect Withdrawal Amount: A Methodology for Creating Retirement Account Distribution Strategies

We present a new way to develop withdrawal strategies from retirement portfolios. It is derived analytically, instead of from empirical testing, and it iterates always in the same manner. It is based on a new measure we develop, the Perfect Withdrawal Amount, for which we discuss how to construct a probability distribution and how to apply it sequentially. We also derive a new measure of sequencing risk. We present new strategies built with this framework.

The information in the Mexican term structure of interest rates: capital market implications

Abstract This paper employs the term structure approach to examine Mexican security markets during the recent period of political and economic turmoil. We investigate the characteristics of these markets and the forecast applicability of the pure expectations hypothesis to interest rates in Mexico. We find that both forward rates and spot rate spreads are found to have significant forecasting ability for future spot rates for Mexico. Both forecasting approaches suggest greater predictive ability during the period of higher interest rates and general economic volatility (1995–1996) than the more stable economic environment of the early 1990s (1991–1994).

Working Capital Requirements Revisited

ABSTRACT The conventional approach to considering working capital cash flows in capital budgeting is to omit them or include some ad hoc figures at the initiation and termination of the project. The authors argue for an endogenous system of estimating relevant working capital cash flows on a periodic basis. Otherwise, the present value of working capital cash flows is biased against the projects acceptance. Examples of calculating working capital cash flows as related to changes in annual sales are presented for three time patterns of sales and contrasted to the conventional method. An empirical study of the linear relationship of net working capital and sales revenue of 770 companies is reported, and an alternative cash flow model is offered thai includes working capilal cash flows.

Bias in systems of survey and econometric forecasts

Abstract Many studies in recent years have found survey and econometric forecasts to be significantly biased. Typically, this bias has been measured by individual estimation of Theils U-statistic or ordinary least squares (OLS). The purpose of this paper is to estimate jointly, rather than individually, the bias in survey and econometric forecasts. Specifically, the biases in forecasts of U.S. nominal and real GNP, the GNP deflator, and the unemployment rate are estimated simultaneously by means of Zellners Seemingly Unrelated Regression procedure. The results from this generalized least squares (GLS) method differ considerably from the OLS results. Specifically, the GLS findings (contrary to the OLS results of this and other studies) indicate that econometric model forecasts are, in general, not significantly biased. The Zellner procedure does find, however, significant bias in the ASA/NBER survey forecasts.