Dany Bahar

Migration, Knowledge Diffusion and the Comparative Advantage of Nations

In this paper we document that the probability that a product is added to a country’s export basket is, on average, 65% larger if a neighboring country is a successful exporter of that same product. We interpret our result as evidence of international intra-industry knowledge diffusion. Our results are consistent with the overall consensus in the literature on technology spillovers: diffusion is stronger at shorter distances; is weaker for more knowledge-intensive products; and has become faster over time.

Aid and Fertility

This paper uses a panel data from developing countries to study the relationship between foreign aid flows and fertility rates. By making use of natural disasters in neighboring countries as an instrumental variable to foreign aid receipts,I find that a percentage point increase in the share of aid in the GDP increases on average fertility rates among the population by 0.045 additional children. This can be translated to an additional child for about every 22 women of childbearing age. The positive effect of foreign aid on fertility rates can contribute to the current debate on foreign aid, and supply an additional explanation for its limited efficacy historically. By making use of the same instrumental variable, I also find no effect of foreign aid on other determinants of economic growth and growth itself.

The Birth and Growth of New Export Clusters: Which Mechanisms Drive Diversification?

The transition into non-traditional export activities attracts important policy and academic attention. Using international trade data, we explore how alternative linkages relate to the take-off and acceleration of export industries. Concretely, we run a horse-race among alternative Marshallian linkages across sectors: input-output relations, technology and labor. Technology has a predictive power depending on the specification used. We consistently find, however, that export take-offs are more likely to occur in sectors that are upstream to already competitive export industries. Our findings, which are mostly driven by developing economies, are consistent with Albert Hirschman’s 60-years old view that the forces behind upstream linkages fueled the growth of new competitive industries in the developing world.