Daphne LaDue

Exploring Impacts of Rapid-Scan Radar Data on NWS Warning Decisions

AbstractRapid-scan weather radars, such as the S-band phased array radar at the National Weather Radar Testbed in Norman, Oklahoma, improve precision in the depiction of severe storm processes. To explore potential impacts of such data on forecaster warning decision making, 12 National Weather Service forecasters participated in a preliminary study with two control conditions: 1) when radar scan time was similar to volume coverage pattern 12 (4.5 min) and 2) when radar scan time was faster (43 s). Under these control conditions, forecasters were paired and worked a tropical tornadic supercell case. Their decision processes were observed and audio was recorded, interactions with data displays were video recorded, and the products were archived. A debriefing was conducted with each of the six teams independently and jointly, to ascertain the forecaster decision-making process. Analysis of these data revealed that teams examining the same data sometimes came to different conclusions about whether and when to...

Tornado Warning Decisions Using Phased-Array Radar Data

AbstractThe 2012 Phased Array Radar Innovative Sensing Experiment identified how rapidly scanned full-volumetric data captured known mesoscale processes and impacted tornado-warning lead time. Twelve forecasters from nine National Weather Service forecast offices used this rapid-scan phased-array radar (PAR) data to issue tornado warnings on two low-end tornadic and two nontornadic supercell cases. Verification of the tornadic cases revealed that forecasters’ use of PAR data provided a median tornado-warning lead time (TLT) of 20 min. This 20-min TLT exceeded by 6.5 and 9 min, respectively, participants’ forecast office and regions’ median spring season, low-end TLTs (2008–13). Furthermore, polygon-based probability of detection ranged from 0.75 to 1.0 and probability of false alarm for all four cases ranged from 0.0 to 0.5. Similar performance was observed regardless of prior warning experience. Use of a cognitive task analysis method called the recent case walk-through showed that this performance was d...

Strengths and Limitations of Current Radar Systems for Two Stakeholder Groups in the Southern Plains

Advancements in radar technology since the deployment of the Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) network have prompted consideration of radar replacement technologies. In order for the outcomes of advanced radar research and development to be the most beneficial to users, an understanding of user needs must be established early in the process and considered throughout. As an important early step in addressing this need, this study explored the strengths and limitations of current radar systems for nine participants from two key stakeholder groups: NOAAs NWS and broadcast meteorologists. Critical incident interviews revealed the role of each stakeholder group and attained stories that exemplified radar strengths and limitations in their respective roles. NWS forecasters emphasized using radar as an essential tool to assess the current weather situation and communicate hazards to key stakeholder groups. TV broadcasters emphasized adding meaning and value to NWS information and using radar to ...

Development of a Human–Machine Mix for Forecasting Severe Convective Events

AbstractProviding advance warning for impending severe convective weather events (i.e., tornadoes, hail, wind) fundamentally requires an ability to predict and/or detect these hazards and subsequently communicate their potential threat in real time. The National Weather Service (NWS) provides advance warning for severe convective weather through the issuance of tornado and severe thunderstorm warnings, a system that has remained relatively unchanged for approximately the past 65 years. Forecasting a Continuum of Environmental Threats (FACETs) proposes a reinvention of this system, transitioning from a deterministic product-centric paradigm to one based on probabilistic hazard information (PHI) for hazardous weather events. Four years of iterative development and rapid prototyping in the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Hazardous Weather Testbed (HWT) with NWS forecasters and partners has yielded insights into this new paradigm by discovering efficient ways to generate, inform, and ut...