Darrell Napton

Exploring subtle land use and land cover changes: a framework for future landscape studies

Land cover and land use changes can have a wide variety of ecological effects, including significant impacts on soils and water quality. In rural areas, even subtle changes in farming practices can affect landscape features and functions, and consequently the environment. Fine-scale analyses have to be performed to better understand the land cover change processes. At the same time, models of land cover change have to be developed in order to anticipate where changes are more likely to occur next. Such predictive information is essential to propose and implement sustainable and efficient environmental policies. Future landscape studies can provide a framework to forecast how land use and land cover changes is likely to react differently to subtle changes. This paper proposes a four step framework to forecast landscape futures at fine scales by coupling scenarios and landscape modelling approaches. This methodology has been tested on two contrasting agricultural landscapes located in the United States and France, to identify possible landscape changes based on forecasting and backcasting agriculture intensification scenarios. Both examples demonstrate that relatively subtle land cover and land use changes can have a large impact on future landscapes. Results highlight how such subtle changes have to be considered in term of quantity, location, and frequency of land use and land cover to appropriately assess environmental impacts on water pollution (France) and soil erosion (US). The results highlight opportunities for improvements in landscape modelling.

THE DRIVING FORCES OF LAND CHANGE IN THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT OF THE UNITED STATES

Abstract. Driving forces facilitate or inhibit land‐use / land‐cover change. Human driving forces include political, economic, cultural, and social attributes that often change across time and space. Remotely sensed imagery provides regional land‐change data for the Northern Piedmont, an ecoregion of the United States that continued to urbanize after 1970 through conversion of agricultural and forest land covers to developed uses. Eight major driving forces facilitated most of the land conversion; other drivers inhibited or slowed change. A synergistic web of drivers may be more important in understanding land change than individual drivers by themselves.

The Southern Piedmont's Continued Land-Use Evolution, 1973–2011

The southern Piedmont in the U.S. was an important farming region during the 19th century, but by the end of the 20th century, agricultural land use had decreased substantially with forest becoming the majority land cover by the 1970s. Geographical literature has documented this change but has not concentrated on the region’s contemporary land uses. The Piedmont currently has three main types of land use and land cover changes: cyclic forestry, changes between forest and agriculture, and urbanization. The first and second groupings are reversible and land uses and land covers can change among them, but urbanization is normally a permanent change that increases in area through time. U.S. Geological Survey findings indicate that cyclic forestry of cutting (clearing) and regrowth dominated recent land change in the Piedmont. This paper explores the Piedmont’s current land uses and some of their driving forces.

U.S. Land Cover and Land Use Change: 1973–2000

People change the land to improve their quality of life, but these changes may have adverse consequences that affect other places, water, air, people, or species. Issues resulting from land alteration affect all and include changes to climate, ecosystems, human health, water quality, and vulnerability to hazards. To manage and balance the consequences of land-use and land-cover changes, we must first better understand them.