Darren Dahly

Associations of linear growth and relative weight gain during early life with adult health and human capital in countries of low and middle income: Findings from five birth cohort studies.

Summary Background Fast weight gain and linear growth in children in low-income and middle-income countries are associated with enhanced survival and improved cognitive development, but might increase risk of obesity and related adult cardiometabolic diseases. We investigated how linear growth and relative weight gain during infancy and childhood are related to health and human capital outcomes in young adults. Methods We used data from five prospective birth cohort studies from Brazil, Guatemala, India, the Philippines, and South Africa. We investigated body-mass index, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, plasma glucose concentration, height, years of attained schooling, and related categorical indicators of adverse outcomes in young adults. With linear and logistic regression models, we assessed how these outcomes relate to birthweight and to statistically independent measures representing linear growth and weight gain independent of linear growth (relative weight gain) in three age periods: 0–2 years, 2 years to mid-childhood, and mid-childhood to adulthood. Findings We obtained data for 8362 participants who had at least one adult outcome of interest. A higher birthweight was consistently associated with an adult body-mass index of greater than 25 kg/m2 (odds ratio 1·28, 95% CI 1·21–1·35) and a reduced likelihood of short adult stature (0·49, 0·44–0·54) and of not completing secondary school (0·82, 0·78–0·87). Faster linear growth was strongly associated with a reduced risk of short adult stature (age 2 years: 0·23, 0·20–0·52; mid-childhood: 0·39, 0·36–0·43) and of not completing secondary school (age 2 years: 0·74, 0·67–0·78; mid-childhood: 0·87, 0·83–0·92), but did raise the likelihood of overweight (age 2 years: 1·24, 1·17–1·31; mid-childhood: 1·12, 1·06–1·18) and elevated blood pressure (age 2 years: 1·12, 1·06–1·19; mid-childhood: 1·07, 1·01–1·13). Faster relative weight gain was associated with an increased risk of adult overweight (age 2 years: 1·51, 1·43–1·60; mid-childhood: 1·76, 1·69–1·91) and elevated blood pressure (age 2 years: 1·07, 1·01–1·13; mid-childhood: 1·22, 1·15–1·30). Linear growth and relative weight gain were not associated with dysglycaemia, but a higher birthweight was associated with decreased risk of the disorder (0·89, 0·81–0·98). Interpretation Interventions in countries of low and middle income to increase birthweight and linear growth during the first 2 years of life are likely to result in substantial gains in height and schooling and give some protection from adult chronic disease risk factors, with few adverse trade-offs. Funding Wellcome Trust and Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Size at birth, weight gain in infancy and childhood, and adult blood pressure in 5 low- and middle-income-country cohorts: when does weight gain matter?

Background: Promoting catch-up growth in malnourished children has health benefits, but recent evidence suggests that accelerated child weight gain increases adult chronic disease risk. Objective: We aimed to determine how birth weight (BW) and weight gain to midchildhood relate to blood pressure (BP) in young adults. Design: We pooled data from birth cohorts in Brazil, Guatemala, India, the Philippines, and South Africa. We used conditional weight (CW), a residual of current weight regressed on prior weights, to represent deviations from expected weight gain from 0 to 12, 12 to 24, 24 to 48 mo, and 48 mo to adulthood. Adult BP and risk of prehypertension or hypertension (P/HTN) were modeled before and after adjustment for adult body mass index (BMI) and height. Interactions of CWs with small size-for-gestational age (SGA) at birth were tested. Results: Higher CWs were associated with increased BP and odds of P/HTN, with coefficients proportional to the contribution of each CW to adult BMI. Adjusted for adult height and BMI, no child CW was associated with adult BP, but 1 SD of BW was related to a 0.5-mm Hg lower systolic BP and a 9% lower odds of P/HTN. BW and CW associations with systolic BP and P/HTN were not different between adults born SGA and those with normal BW, but higher CW at 48 mo was associated with higher diastolic BP in those born SGA. Conclusions: Greater weight gain at any age relates to elevated adult BP, but faster weight gains in infancy and young childhood do not pose a higher risk than do gains at other ages.

Associations between Multiple Indicators of Socioeconomic Status and Obesity in Young Adult Filipinos Vary by Gender, Urbanicity, and Indicator Used

More research is needed on the socio-environmental determinants of obesity in lower- and middle-income countries. We used generalized estimating equations to evaluate the cross-sectional effect of urban residence and multiple individual-level indicators of socioeconomic status (SES) on the odds of overweight or central adiposity in a birth cohort of young adult (mean age 21.5 y) Filipino males (n = 987) and females (n = 819) enrolled in the Cebu Longitudinal Health and Nutrition Survey. Overweight was defined as BMI >/=25 kg/m(2) and central adiposity was defined as a waist circumference >85 cm for males or >80 cm for females. Community-level urbanicity was measured on a continuous scale. Multiple indicators of SES included assets, income, education, and marital status. In the final multivariable models, assets and being married were positively related to overweight and central adiposity in males (P < 0.05), but being married was the only predictor of these outcomes in females. However, once the modifying effects of urban residence were accounted for, assets were positively related to overweight and central adiposity among the most rural women, but not in more urban women. Our results are consistent with a growing body of literature that suggests the relationship between SES and obesity is positive in lower-income contexts and inverse in higher-income contexts, particularly in females. The pattern of relationships we observed suggests that as the Philippines continues to develop economically, the public health impact of obesity will increase similarly to what has been observed in countries further along in their economic transition.

A structural equation model of the developmental origins of blood pressure

BACKGROUND Birth-size is a problematic proxy for the fetal environment, and regression models testing for associations between birth-size and blood pressure have been criticized. METHODS We modelled fetal environment as a latent variable determined by maternal height and arm fat area (AFA) during pregnancy using structural equation modelling. We tested for associations between latent fetal environment (LFE) and systolic blood pressure (SBP) while controlling for birth weight (BW) and current weight (CW). Data are from 1435 male and 1218 female young adult Filipinos (2005; mean age 21 years) enrolled in the Cebu Longitudinal Heath and Nutrition Survey, an ongoing, community-based study of a one-year birth cohort. Using AMOS 6.0, LFE was modelled as a determinant of BW, CW and SBP; CW was modelled as a determinant of SBP. RESULTS Overall model fit was excellent (chi2: 32.14, 27 df, P=0.23). The estimated direct relationship between LFE and SBP was inverse for both males ((-0.43) -0.26 (-0.10)) and females ((-0.29) -0.18 (-0.07)). CONCLUSIONS These results are consistent with the hypothesis that maternal height and AFA impact fetal development in a manner that is positively associated with fetal growth (as reflected by BW) and inversely associated with SBP in young adulthood.

Does lower birth order amplify the association between high socioeconomic status and central adiposity in young adult Filipino males

Objectives:To test the hypothesis that lower birth order amplifies the positive association between socioeconomic status and central adiposity in young adult males from a lower income, developing country context.Design:The Cebu Longitudinal Health and Nutrition Survey is an ongoing community-based, observational study of a 1-year birth cohort (1983).Subjects:970 young adult males, mean age 21.5 years (2005).Measurements:Central adiposity measured by waist circumference; birth order; perinatal maternal characteristics including height, arm fat area, age and smoking behavior; socioeconomic status at birth and in young adulthood.Results:Lower birth order was associated with higher waist circumference and increased odds of high waist circumference, even after adjustment for socioeconomic status in young adulthood and maternal characteristics that could impact later offspring adiposity. Furthermore, the positive association between socioeconomic status and central adiposity was amplified in individuals characterized by lower birth order.Conclusions:This research has failed to reject the mismatch hypothesis, which posits that maternal constraint of fetal growth acts to program developing physiology in a manner that increases susceptibility to the obesogenic effects of modern environments.

Identifying infants at risk of becoming obese: Can we and should we?

OBJECTIVES Increased understanding of the risk factors for childhood obesity has raised the possibility of identifying infants who are at risk of becoming overweight or obese, enabling early intervention for infants at high risk. This paper considers the known risk factors, describes statistical work aimed at identifying risk, and considers the ethical and practical issues of such a development. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS An overview of the published evidence for risk factors in the early development of overweight and obesity, and a statistical assessment of the practicality of developing a simple obesity risk assessment tool (ORT) for use in the primary care setting. RESULTS Analysis of data from two currently available UK birth cohort studies suggests that an ORT based on these data does not provide acceptable levels of specificity and sensitivity for use in a primary care setting. CONCLUSION Further development of an ORT using additional data and enhanced statistical analysis may lead to a practical tool. However the practical, ethical and legal issues involved in its use, and the public health policy considerations that follow must be resolved.

The influence of birth order and number of siblings on adolescent body composition: evidence from a Brazilian birth cohort study

The aim of this study was to estimate the association between birth order and number of siblings with body composition in adolescents. Data are from a birth cohort study conducted in Pelotas, Brazil. At the age of 18 years, 4563 adolescents were located, of whom 4106 were interviewed (follow-up rate 81·3 %). Of these, 3974 had complete data and were thus included in our analysis. The variables used in the analysis were measured during the perinatal period, or at 11, 15 and/or 18 years of age. Body composition at 18 years was collected by air displacement plethysmography (BOD POD®). Crude and adjusted analyses of the association between birth order and number of siblings with body composition were performed using linear regression. All analyses were stratified by the adolescent sex. The means of BMI, fat mass index and fat-free mass index among adolescents were 23·4 (sd 4·5) kg/m2, 6·1 (sd 3·9) kg/m2 and 17·3 (sd 2·5) kg/m2, respectively. In adjusted models, the total siblings remained inversely associated with fat mass index (β = − 0·37 z-scores, 95 % CI − 0·52, − 0·23) and BMI in boys (β = − 0·39 z-scores, 95 % CI − 0·55, − 0·22). Fat-free mass index was related to the total siblings in girls (β = 0·06 z-scores, 95 % CI − 0·04, 0·17). This research has found that number of total siblings, and not birth order, is related to the fat mass index, fat-free mass index and BMI in adolescents. It suggests the need for early prevention of obesity or fat mass accumulation in only children.

Adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) and later-life depression: perceived social support as a potential protective factor

Objective To investigate associations between adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) and later-life depressive symptoms; and to explore whether perceived social support (PSS) moderates these. Method We analysed baseline data from the Mitchelstown (Ireland) 2010–2011 cohort of 2047 men and women aged 50–69 years. Self-reported measures included ACEs (Centre for Disease Control ACE questionnaire), PSS (Oslo Social Support Scale) and depressive symptoms (CES-D). The primary exposure was self-report of at least one ACE. We also investigated the effects of ACE exposure by ACE scores and ACE subtypes abuse, neglect and household dysfunction. Associations between each of these exposures and depressive symptoms were estimated using logistic regression, adjusted for socio-demographic factors. We tested whether the estimated associations varied across levels of PSS (poor, moderate and strong). Results 23.7% of participants reported at least one ACE (95% CI 21.9% to 25.6%). ACE exposures (overall, subtype or ACE scores) were associated with a higher odds of depressive symptoms, but only among individuals with poor PSS. Exposure to any ACE (vs none) was associated with almost three times the odds of depressive symptoms (adjusted OR 2.85; 95% CI 1.64 to 4.95) among individuals reporting poor PSS, while among those reporting moderate and strong PSS, the adjusted ORs were 2.21 (95% CI 1.52 to 3.22) and 1.39 (95% CI 0.85 to 2.29), respectively. This pattern of results was similar when exposures were based on ACE subtype and ACE scores, though the interaction was clearly strongest among those reporting abuse. Conclusions ACEs are common among older adults in Ireland and are associated with higher odds of later-life depressive symptoms, particularly among those with poor PSS. Interventions that enhance social support, or possibly perceptions of social support, may help reduce the burden of depression in older populations with ACE exposure, particularly in those reporting abuse.

Walking in hospital is associated with a shorter length of stay in older medical inpatients

Evidence suggests that inactivity during a hospital stay is associated with poor health outcomes in older medical inpatients. We aimed to estimate the associations of average daily step-count (walking) in hospital with physical performance and length of stay in this population. Medical in-patients aged ≥65 years, premorbidly mobile, with an anticipated length of stay ≥3 d, were recruited. Measurements included average daily step-count, continuously recorded until discharge, or for a maximum of 7 d (Stepwatch Activity Monitor); co-morbidity (CIRS-G); frailty (SHARE F-I); and baseline and end-of-study physical performance (short physical performance battery). Linear regression models were used to estimate associations between step-count and end-of-study physical performance or length of stay. Length of stay was log transformed in the first model, and step-count was log transformed in both models. Similar models were used to adjust for potential confounders. Data from 154 patients (mean 77 years, SD 7.4) were analysed. The unadjusted models estimated for each unit increase in the natural log of step-count, the natural log of length of stay decreased by 0.18 (95% CI −0.27 to −0.09). After adjustment of potential confounders, while the strength of the inverse association was attenuated, it remained significant (β log(steps) = −0.15, 95%CI −0.26 to −0.03). The back-transformed result suggested that a 50% increase in step-count was associated with a 6% shorter length of stay. There was no apparent association between step-count and end-of-study physical performance once baseline physical performance was adjusted for. The results indicate that step-count is independently associated with hospital length of stay, and merits further investigation.

Challenges in modelling the random structure correctly in growth mixture models and the impact this has on model mixtures

Lifecourse trajectories of clinical or anthropological attributes are useful for identifying how our early-life experiences influence later-life morbidity and mortality. Researchers often use growth mixture models (GMMs) to estimate such phenomena. It is common to place constrains on the random part of the GMM to improve parsimony or to aid convergence, but this can lead to an autoregressive structure that distorts the nature of the mixtures and subsequent model interpretation. This is especially true if changes in the outcome within individuals are gradual compared with the magnitude of differences between individuals. This is not widely appreciated, nor is its impact well understood. Using repeat measures of body mass index (BMI) for 1528 US adolescents, we estimated GMMs that required variance–covariance constraints to attain convergence. We contrasted constrained models with and without an autocorrelation structure to assess the impact this had on the ideal number of latent classes, their size and composition. We also contrasted model options using simulations. When the GMM variance–covariance structure was constrained, a within-class autocorrelation structure emerged. When not modelled explicitly, this led to poorer model fit and models that differed substantially in the ideal number of latent classes, as well as class size and composition. Failure to carefully consider the random structure of data within a GMM framework may lead to erroneous model inferences, especially for outcomes with greater within-person than between-person homogeneity, such as BMI. It is crucial to reflect on the underlying data generation processes when building such models.