Darren Shaw

Patterns of macroparasite aggregation in wildlife host populations.

Frequency distributions from 49 published wildlife host-macroparasite systems were analysed by maximum likelihood for goodness of fit to the negative binomial distribution. In 45 of the 49 (90%) data-sets, the negative binomial distribution provided a statistically satisfactory fit. In the other 4 data-sets the negative binomial distribution still provided a better fit than the Poisson distribution, and only 1 of the data-sets fitted the Poisson distribution. The degree of aggregation was large, with 43 of the 49 data-sets having an estimated k of less than 1. From these 49 data-sets, 22 subsets of host data were available (i.e. host data could be divided by either host sex, age, where or when hosts were sampled). In 11 of these 22 subsets there was significant variation in the degree of aggregation between host subsets of the same host-parasite system. A common k estimate was always larger than that obtained with all the host data considered together. These results indicate that lumping host data can hide important variations in aggregation between hosts and can exaggerate the true degree of aggregation. Wherever possible common k estimates should be used to estimate the degree of aggregation. In addition, significant differences in the degree of aggregation between subgroups of host data, were generally associated with significant differences in both mean parasite burdens and the prevalence of infection.

Optimal reactive vaccination strategies for a foot-and-mouth outbreak in the UK

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in the UK provides an ideal opportunity to explore optimal control measures for an infectious disease. The presence of fine-scale spatio-temporal data for the 2001 epidemic has allowed the development of epidemiological models that are more accurate than those generally created for other epidemics and provide the opportunity to explore a variety of alternative control measures. Vaccination was not used during the 2001 epidemic; however, the recent DEFRA (Department for Environment Food and Rural Affairs) contingency plan details how reactive vaccination would be considered in future. Here, using the data from the 2001 epidemic, we consider the optimal deployment of limited vaccination capacity in a complex heterogeneous environment. We use a model of FMD spread to investigate the optimal deployment of reactive ring vaccination of cattle constrained by logistical resources. The predicted optimal ring size is highly dependent upon logistical constraints but is more robust to epidemiological parameters. Other ways of targeting reactive vaccination can significantly reduce the epidemic size; in particular, ignoring the order in which infections are reported and vaccinating those farms closest to any previously reported case can substantially reduce the epidemic. This strategy has the advantage that it rapidly targets new foci of infection and that determining an optimal ring size is unnecessary.

The construction and analysis of epidemic trees with reference to the 2001 UK foot–and–mouth outbreak

The case–reproduction ratio for the spread of an infectious disease is a critically important concept for understanding dynamics of epidemics and for evaluating impact of control measures on spread of infection. Reliable estimation of this ratio is a problem central to epidemiology and is most often accomplished by fitting dynamic models to data and estimating combinations of parameters that equate to the case–reproduction ratio. Here, we develop a novel parameter–free method that permits direct estimation of the history of transmission events recoverable from detailed observation of a particular epidemic. From these reconstructed ‘epidemic trees’, case–reproduction ratios can be estimated directly. We develop a bootstrap algorithm that generates percentile intervals for these estimates that shows the procedure to be both precise and robust to possible uncertainties in the historical reconstruction. Identifying and ‘pruning’ branches from these trees whose occurrence might have been prevented by implementation of more stringent control measures permits estimation of the possible efficacy of these alternative measures. Examination of the cladistic structure of these trees as a function of the distance of each case from its infection source reveals useful insights about the relationship between long-distance transmission events and epidemic size. We demonstrate the utility of these methods by applying them to data from the 2001 foot–and–mouth disease outbreak in the UK.

Feline diabetes mellitus in the UK: the prevalence within an insured cat population and a questionnaire-based putative risk factor analysis

Prevalence and risk factors for the development of diabetes mellitus (DM) in cats in the United Kingdom have not previously been reported. The prevalence of DM was evaluated in a large insured population and was found to be 1 in 230 cats. In this insured cat population Burmese cats were 3.7 times more likely to develop DM than non-pedigree cats. A convenience-sampling questionnaire-based study was used in order to identify putative risk factors for the development of DM. The univariate risk factor analysis identified being male, neutered, inactive, weighing ≥5 kg and having a history of corticosteroid treatment as significant risk factors for the development of DM in these cats. In addition, male cats treated with megestrol acetate had a significantly increased risk of developing DM compared to females. In contrast, there was no difference in DM occurrence between male and female Burmese cats. A multivariate classification tree-based model on the questionnaire data looking for interactions between risk factors, identified gender as the most important overall risk factor for the development of DM with low physical activity being the next most important risk factor for female cats and breed the next most important for male cats.

Salmonella Transforms Follicle-Associated Epithelial Cells into M Cells to Promote Intestinal Invasion

Salmonella Typhimurium specifically targets antigen-sampling microfold (M) cells to translocate across the gut epithelium. Although M cells represent a small proportion of the specialized follicular-associated epithelium (FAE) overlying mucosa-associated lymphoid tissues, their density increases during Salmonella infection, but the underlying molecular mechanism remains unclear. Using in vitro and in vivo infection models, we demonstrate that the S. Typhimurium type III effector protein SopB induces an epithelial-mesenchymal transition (EMT) of FAE enterocytes into M cells. This cellular transdifferentiation is a result of SopB-dependent activation of Wnt/β-catenin signaling leading to induction of both receptor activator of NF-κB ligand (RANKL) and its receptor RANK. The autocrine activation of RelB-expressing FAE enterocytes by RANKL/RANK induces the EMT-regulating transcription factor Slug that marks epithelial transdifferentiation into M cells. Thus, via the activity of a single secreted effector, S. Typhimurium transforms primed epithelial cells into M cells to promote host colonization and invasion.

Epidemiological implications of the contact network structure for cattle farms and the 20–80 rule

The network of movements of cattle between farm holdings is an important determinant of the potential rates and patterns of spread of infectious diseases. Because cattle movements are uni-directional, the network is unusual in that the risks of acquiring infection (by importing cattle) and of passing infection on (by exporting cattle) can be clearly distinguished, and there turns out to be no statistically significant correlation between the two. This means that the high observed degree of heterogeneity in numbers of contacts does not result in an increase in the basic reproduction number, R0, in contrast to findings from studies of other contact networks. Despite this, it is still the case that just 20% of holdings contribute at least 80% of the value of R0.

Pre-clinical evaluation of three non-viral gene transfer agents for cystic fibrosis after aerosol delivery to the ovine lung

We use both large and small animal models in our pre-clinical evaluation of gene transfer agents (GTAs) for cystic fibrosis (CF) gene therapy. Here, we report the use of a large animal model to assess three non-viral GTAs: 25 kDa-branched polyethyleneimine (PEI), the cationic liposome (GL67A) and compacted DNA nanoparticle formulated with polyethylene glycol-substituted lysine 30-mer. GTAs complexed with plasmids expressing human cystic fibrosis transmembrane conductance regulator (CFTR) complementary DNA were administered to the sheep lung (n=8 per group) by aerosol. All GTAs gave evidence of gene transfer and expression 1 day after treatment. Vector-derived mRNA was expressed in lung tissues, including epithelial cell-enriched bronchial brushing samples, with median group values reaching 1–10% of endogenous CFTR mRNA levels. GL67A gave the highest levels of expression. Human CFTR protein was detected in small airway epithelial cells in some animals treated with GL67A (two out of eight) and PEI (one out of eight). Bronchoalveolar lavage neutrophilia, lung histology and elevated serum haptoglobin levels indicated that gene delivery was associated with mild local and systemic inflammation. Our conclusion was that GL67A was the best non-viral GTA currently available for aerosol delivery to the sheep lung, led to the selection of GL67A as our lead GTA for clinical trials in CF patients.

Primary and secondary cases in Escherichia coli O157 outbreaks: a statistical analysis.

BackgroundWithin outbreaks of Escherichia coli O157 (E. coli O157), at least 10–15% of cases are thought to have been acquired by secondary transmission. However, there has been little systematic quantification or characterisation of secondary outbreak cases worldwide. The aim of this study was to characterise secondary outbreak cases, estimate the overall proportion of outbreak cases that were the result of secondary transmission and to analyse the relationships between primary and secondary outbreak cases by mode of transmission, country and median age.MethodsPublished data was obtained from 90 confirmed Escherichia coli O157 outbreaks in Great Britain, Ireland, Scandinavia, Canada, the United States and Japan, and the outbreaks were described in terms of modes of primary and secondary transmission, country, case numbers and median case age. Outbreaks were tested for statistically significant differences in the number of ill, confirmed, primary and secondary cases (analysis of variance and Kruskal-Wallis) and in the rate of secondary cases between these variables (Generalised Linear Models).ResultsThe outbreaks had a median of 13.5 confirmed cases, and mean proportion of 0.195 secondary cases. There were statistically significant differences in the numbers of ill, confirmed, primary and secondary cases between modes of primary transmission (p < 0.021), and in primary and secondary cases between median age categories (p < 0.039) and modes of secondary transmission (p < 0.001).Secondary case rates differed statistically significantly between modes of secondary and primary transmission and median age categories (all p < 0.001), but not between countries (p = 0.23). Statistically significantly higher rates of secondary transmission were found in outbreaks with a median age <6 years and those with secondary transmission via person to person spread in nurseries. No statistically significant interactions were found between country, mode of transmission and age category.ConclusionOur analyses indicated that ~20% of E. coli O157 outbreak cases were the result of secondary spread, and that this spread is significantly influenced by age and modes of primary and secondary transmission, but not country. In particular, the results provide further data emphasising the importance of simple but effective preventive strategies, such as handwashing, that can reduce the risk of secondary spread, particularly amongst young children in nurseries.

A framework for evaluating animals as sentinels for infectious disease surveillance

The dynamics of infectious diseases are highly variable. Host ranges, host responses to pathogens and the relationships between hosts are heterogeneous. Here, we argue that the use of animal sentinels has the potential to use this variation and enable the exploitation of a wide range of pathogen hosts for surveillance purposes. Animal sentinels may be used to address many surveillance questions, but they may currently be underused as a surveillance tool and there is a need for improved interdisciplinary collaboration and communication in order to fully explore the potential of animal sentinels. In different contexts, different animal hosts will themselves vary in their capacity to provide useful information. We describe a conceptual framework within which the characteristics of different host populations and their potential value as sentinels can be evaluated in a broad range of settings.

Epidemiology: Foot-and-mouth disease under control in the UK

Following the first reported case on 20 February this year, foot-and-mouth disease spread to over 1,500 livestock farms in the United Kingdom by the end of April. From late March, the Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food (MAFF) required livestock on infected farms to be culled within 24 hours of the disease being reported and those on neighbouring farms within 48 hours. Here we investigate whether progress towards meeting these targets has had a detectable impact on the course of the epidemic in the United Kingdom. We conclude that it has now been brought under control, but it will be important to contain rapidly any new outbreaks in previously unaffected areas.