Darren Wraith

Dark-energy constraints and correlations with systematics from CFHTLS weak lensing, SNLS supernovae Ia and WMAP5 ⋆

We combine measurements of weak gravitational lensing from the CFHTLS-Wide survey, supernovae Ia from CFHT SNLS and CMB anisotropies from WMAP5 to obtain joint constraints on cosmological parameters, in particular, the dark energy equation of state parameter w. We assess the influence of systematics in the data on the results and look for possible correlations with cosmological parameters. We implement an MCMC algorithm to sample the parameter space of a flat CDM model with a dark-energy component of constant w. Systematics in the data are parametrised and included in the analysis. We determine the influence of photometric calibration of SNIa data on cosmological results by calculating the response of the distance modulus to photometric zero-point variations. The weak lensing data set is tested for anomalous field-to-field variations and a systematic shape measurement bias for high-z galaxies. Ignoring photometric uncertainties for SNLS biases cosmological parameters by at most 20% of the statistical errors, using supernovae only; the parameter uncertainties are underestimated by 10%. The weak lensing field-to-field variance pointings is 5%-15% higher than that predicted from N-body simulations. We do not find evidence for a multiplicative bias of the lensing signal at high redshift, within the framework of a simple model. When restricting the bias to values smaller than unity, the normalisation sigma_8 increases by up to 8%. Combining all three probes we obtain -0.10<1+w<0.06 at 68% confidence (-0.18<1+w<0.12 at 95%), including systematic errors. Systematics in the data increase the error bars by up to 35%; the best-fit values change by less than 0.15sigma. [Abridged]

Estimation of cosmological parameters using adaptive importance sampling

We present a Bayesian sampling algorithm called adaptive importance sampling or population Monte Carlo (PMC), whose computational workload is easily parallelizable and thus has the potential to considerably reduce the wall-clock time required for sampling, along with providing other benefits. To assess the performance of the approach for cosmological problems, we use simulated and actual data consisting of CMB anisotropies, supernovae of type Ia, and weak cosmological lensing, and provide a comparison of results to those obtained using state-of-the-art Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). For both types of data sets, we find comparable parameter estimates for PMC and MCMC, with the advantage of a significantly lower wall-clock time for PMC. In the case of WMAP5 data, for example, the wall-clock time scale reduces from days for MCMC to hours using PMC on a cluster of processors. Other benefits of the PMC approach, along with potential difficulties in using the approach, are analyzed and discussed.

A new family of multivariate heavy-tailed distributions with variable marginal amounts of tailweight: application to robust clustering

We propose a family of multivariate heavy-tailed distributions that allow variable marginal amounts of tailweight. The originality comes from introducing multidimensional instead of univariate scale variables for the mixture of scaled Gaussian family of distributions. In contrast to most existing approaches, the derived distributions can account for a variety of shapes and have a simple tractable form with a closed-form probability density function whatever the dimension. We examine a number of properties of these distributions and illustrate them in the particular case of Pearson type VII and t tails. For these latter cases, we provide maximum likelihood estimation of the parameters and illustrate their modelling flexibility on simulated and real data clustering examples.

Computational methods for Bayesian model choice

In this note, we shortly survey some recent approaches on the approximation of the Bayes factor used in Bayesian hypothesis testing and in Bayesian model choice. In particular, we reassess importance sampling, harmonic mean sampling, and nested sampling from a unified perspective.

Location and scale mixtures of Gaussians with flexible tail behaviour

The family of location and scale mixtures of Gaussians has the ability to generate a number of flexible distributional forms. The family nests as particular cases several important asymmetric distributions like the Generalized Hyperbolic distribution. The Generalized Hyperbolic distribution in turn nests many other well known distributions such as the Normal Inverse Gaussian. In a multivariate setting, an extension of the standard location and scale mixture concept is proposed into a so called multiple scaled framework which has the advantage of allowing different tail and skewness behaviours in each dimension with arbitrary correlation between dimensions. Estimation of the parameters is provided via an EM algorithm and extended to cover the case of mixtures of such multiple scaled distributions for application to clustering. Assessments on simulated and real data confirm the gain in degrees of freedom and flexibility in modelling data of varying tail behaviour and directional shape.

A Bayesian approach to assess interaction between known risk factors: The risk of lung cancer from exposure to asbestos and smoking

We review the literature on the combined effect of asbestos exposure and smoking on lung cancer, and explore a Bayesian approach to assess evidence of interaction. Previous approaches have focussed on separate tests for an additive or multiplicative relation. We extend these approaches by exploring the strength of evidence for either relation using approaches which allow the data to choose between both models. We then compare the different approaches.

Survival analysis of time-to-event data in respiratory health research studies.

This article provides a review of techniques for the analysis of survival data arising from respiratory health studies. Popular techniques such as the Kaplan–Meier survival plot and the Cox proportional hazards model are presented and illustrated using data from a lung cancer study. Advanced issues are also discussed, including parametric proportional hazards models, accelerated failure time models, time‐varying explanatory variables, simultaneous analysis of multiple types of outcome events and the restricted mean survival time, a novel measure of the effect of treatment.

Floor dust bacteria and fungi and their coexistence with PAHs in Jordanian indoor environments

Floor dust samples were collected from Jordanian indoor environments (eight dwellings and an educational building) in Amman. Quantitative PCR (qPCR) analyses of selected fungal and bacterial groups were performed. The bacterial and fungal concentrations were also correlated with PAHs concentrations, which were previously measured in the same samples by using GC-MS. The bacterial and fungal concentrations varied significantly among and within the tested indoor environments. Based on the collected samples in the entrance area of the dwellings, the largest variation was found in Gram-negative bacteria and total fungi concentration. The lowest bacterial and fungal concentrations were found in the dwelling that was least occupied and the most recently built. At the educational building, the Gram-positive bacteria concentrations were lower than those observed in the dwellings. Unlike for bacteria, we observed significant negative correlation with some polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs). This calls for further studies investigating biodegradation of PAHs in house dust and presence of potentially health hazardous PAH metabolites. Since biocontamination in floor dust has been given relatively little to no attention in the MENA region we recommend that more extensive measurements be conducted in the future with chemical and biological analysis of floor dust contaminants and their exposure indoors.

Classifying patients by their characteristics and clinical presentations; the use of latent class analysis.

In this article, we introduce the general statistical analysis approach known as latent class analysis and discuss some of the issues associated with this type of analysis in practice. Two recent examples from the respiratory health literature are used to highlight the types of research questions that have been addressed using this approach.

Predicting prostate tumour location from multiparametric MRI using Gaussian kernel support vector machines: a preliminary study

The performance of a support vector machine (SVM) algorithm was investigated to predict prostate tumour location using multi-parametric MRI (mpMRI) data. The purpose was to obtain information of prostate tumour location for the implementation of bio-focused radiotherapy. In vivo mpMRI data were collected from 16 patients prior to radical prostatectomy. Sequences included T2-weighted imaging, diffusion-weighted imaging and dynamic contrast enhanced imaging. In vivo mpMRI was registered with ‘ground truth’ histology, using ex vivo MRI as an intermediate registration step to improve accuracy. Prostate contours were delineated by a radiation oncologist and tumours were annotated on histology by a pathologist. Five patients with minimal imaging artefacts were selected for this study. A Gaussian kernel SVM was trained and tested on different patient data subsets. Parameters were optimised using leave-oneout cross validation. Signal intensities of mpMRI were used as features and histology annotations as true labels. Prediction accuracy, as well as area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve, were used to assess performance. Results demonstrated the prediction accuracy ranged from 70.4 to 87.1% and AUC of ROC ranged from 0.81 to 0.94. Additional investigations showed the apparent diffusion coefficient map from diffusion weighted imaging was the most important imaging modality for predicting tumour location. Future work will incorporate additional patient data into the framework to increase the sensitivity and specificity of the model, and will be extended to incorporate predictions of biological characteristics of the tumour which will be used in bio-focused radiotherapy optimisation.