Dave Turner

The Macroeconomic Implications of Ageing in a Global Context

This study was prepared in the Economics Department as a contribution to the Organisation -wide study of the economic consequences of population ageing. It presents a number of long-term scenarios illustrating the likely domestic and international macroeconomic effects of ageing across the OECD and policies which might ameliorate or reverse underlying tensions. This work draws together the broad range of elements involved within a consistent framework, based on the Secretariat’s new international dynamic general equilibrium macroeconomic model (MINILINK). A “business-as-usual” case is examined in which, without improvements in labour market performance or specific policy adjustments to allow for the pressures of ageing, economic growth is projected to slow significantly over the next 50 years in nearly all OECD countries; world real interest rates remain stable at current levels or even rise, because of the effects of ageing on private savings and the possible build-up of public ... Ce travail constitue une contribution du Departement economique a l’etude realisee au niveau de l’ensemble de l’Organisation sur les consequences economiques du vieillissement des populations. Il presente un certain nombre de scenarios de long-terme illustrant d’une part les effets macroeconomiques probables du processus de viellisssement sur les plans national et international, sur les flux internationaux entre les regions OCDE et non OCDE et d’autre part le role des politiques economiques pour limiter ou eliminer les tensions generees par ce processus. Cette etude integre dans un meme cadre coherent, base sur le nouveau modele international d’equilibre general dynamique du Secretariat (MINILINK), un large ensemble d’elements constitutifs du phenomene de vieillissement. Le cas d’une scenario “a politique inchange” est analyse. Il met en evidence qu’en l’absence d’amelioration des performances du marche du travail ou d’ajustement specifique des politiques pour faire face aux ...

Modelling the Supply Side of the Seven Major OECD Economies

If a macroeconometric model is to be useful for policy analyses which go beyond short-term forecasting requirements, particular attention must be paid to the form and consistency of its various components with respect to longer-term equilibria. In particular, long-run properties and ultimate stability of such models with respect to output, employment and inflation depend crucially on the consistency and form of the supply-side specification.This paper presents recent work by the OECD contributing to its INTERLINK world model. It focuses on the specification and estimation of the supply-side aspects of the sub-models for the seven major OECD Member countries. It presents a general analytical framework for the specification of a consistent model of business sector behaviour within a dynamic form which meets both short-term forecasting and longer-term theoretical requirements. Comparative estimation results are reported for individual economies along with simulation results for a ... Pour qu’un modele macroeconometrique soit utile aux analyses de politique economique qui vont au dela des besoins des previsions a court terme, on doit porter une attention particuliere a la conformation et a la coherence de ses differentes composantes eu egard aux equilibres de plus long terme. En particulier, les proprietes a long terme et la stabilite finale de tels modeles en ce qui concerne la production, l’emploi et l’inflation dependent de facon cruciale de la coherence et de la conformation des specifications du secteur de l’offre.Cet article presente les travaux recents menes par l’OCDE sur son modele mondial INTERLINK. On y met l’accent sur les specifications et les estimations concernant le secteur de l’offre des sous modeles pour les sept principaux pays Membres de l’OCDE. Il presente un cadre analytique general pour la specification d’un modele coherent du comportement du secteur des entreprises sous un aspect dynamique, qui repond a la fois aux necessites de la ...