Daven K. Henze

Predicted change in global secondary organic aerosol concentrations in response to future climate, emissions, and land use change

[1] The sensitivity of secondary organic aerosol (SOA) concentration to changes in climate and emissions is investigated using a coupled global atmosphere-land model driven by the year 2100 IPCC A1B scenario predictions. The Community Atmosphere Model (CAM3) is updated with recent laboratory determined yields for SOA formation from monoterpene oxidation, isoprene photooxidation and aromatic photooxidation. Biogenic emissions of isoprene and monoterpenes are simulated interactively using the Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols (MEGAN2) within the Community Land Model (CLM3). The global mean SOA burden is predicted to increase by 36% in 2100, primarily the result of rising biogenic and anthropogenic emissions which independently increase the burden by 26% and 7%. The later includes enhanced biogenic SOA formation due to increased emissions of primary organic aerosol (5–25% increases in surface SOA concentrations in 2100). Climate change alone (via temperature, removal rates, and oxidative capacity) does not change the global mean SOA production, but the global burden increases by 6%. The global burden of anthropogenic SOA experiences proportionally more growth than biogenic SOA in 2100 from the net effect of climate and emissions (67% increase predicted). Projected anthropogenic land use change for 2100 (A2) is predicted to reduce the global SOA burden by 14%, largely the result of cropland expansion. South America is the largest global source region for SOA in the present day and 2100, but Asia experiences the largest relative growth in SOA production by 2100 because of the large predicted increases in Asian anthropogenic aromatic emissions. The projected decrease in global sulfur emissions implies that SOA will contribute a progressively larger fraction of the global aerosol burden.

Effect of changes in climate and emissions on future sulfate‐nitrate‐ammonium aerosol levels in the United States

Global simulations of sulfate, nitrate, and ammonium aerosols are performed for the present day and 2050 using the chemical transport model GEOS-Chem. Changes in climate and emissions projected by the IPCC A1B scenario are imposed separately and together, with the primary focus of the work on future inorganic aerosol levels over the United States. Climate change alone is predicted to lead to decreases in levels of sulfate and ammonium in the southeast U.S. but increases in the Midwest and northeast U.S. Nitrate concentrations are projected to decrease across the U.S. as a result of climate change alone. In the U.S., climate change alone can cause changes in annually averaged sulfate-nitrate-ammonium of up to 0.61 μg/m^3, with seasonal changes often being much larger in magnitude. When changes in anthropogenic emissions are considered (with or without changes in climate), domestic sulfate concentrations are projected to decrease because of sulfur dioxide emission reductions, and nitrate concentrations are predicted to generally increase because of higher ammonia emissions combined with decreases in sulfate despite reductions in emissions of nitrogen oxides. The ammonium burden is projected to increase from 0.24 to 0.36 Tg, and the sulfate burden to increase from 0.28 to 0.40 Tg S as a result of globally higher ammonia and sulfate emissions in the future. The global nitrate burden is predicted to remain essentially constant at 0.35 Tg, with changes in both emissions and climate as a result of the competing effects of higher precursor emissions and increased temperature.

Biogenic secondary organic aerosol over the United States: Comparison of climatological simulations with observations

[1] Understanding the effects of global climate change on regional air quality is central in future air quality planning. We report here on the use of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) general circulation model (GCM) III to drive the GEOS-CHEM global atmospheric chemical transport model to simulate climatological present-day aerosol levels over the United States. Evaluation of model predictions using surface measurements from the Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments (IMPROVE) network indicates that the GISS GCM III/GEOS-CHEM model is a suitable tool for simulating aerosols over the United States in the present climate. The model reproduces fairly well the concentrations of sulfate (mean bias of � 0.36 m gm � 3 , normalized mean bias (NMB) of � 25.9%), black carbon (� 0.004 m gm � 3 , � 1.9%), organic carbon that comprises primary and secondary components (� 0.56 m gm � 3 , � 34.2%), and PM2.5 (� 0.87 m gm � 3 , � 20.4%). Nitrate concentrations are overpredicted in the western United States (west of 95W) with a NMB of +75.6% and underestimated in the eastern United States with a NMB of � 54.4%. Special attention is paid to biogenic secondary organic aerosol (SOA). The highest predicted seasonal mean SOA concentrations of 1–2 m gm � 3 and 0.5–1.5 m gm � 3 are predicted over the northwestern and southeastern United States, respectively, in the months of June–July–August. Isoprene is predicted to contribute 49.5% of the biogenic SOA burden over the United States, with the rest explained by the oxidation of terpenes. Predicted biogenic SOA concentrations are in reasonable agreement with inferred SOA levels from IMPROVE measurements. On an annual basis, SOA is predicted to contribute 10–20% of PM2.5 mass in the southeastern United States, as high as 38% in the northwest and about 5–15% in other regions, indicating the important role of SOA in understanding air quality and visibility over the United States.

Ammonia emissions in the United States, European Union, and China derived by high‐resolution inversion of ammonium wet deposition data: Interpretation with a new agricultural emissions inventory (MASAGE_NH3)

We use the adjoint of a global 3-D chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem) to optimize ammonia (NH3) emissions in the U.S., European Union, and China by inversion of 2005–2008 network data for NH4+ wet deposition fluxes. Optimized emissions are derived on a 2° × 2.5° grid for individual months and years. Error characterization in the optimization includes model errors in precipitation. Annual optimized emissions are 2.8 Tg NH3−N a−1 for the contiguous U.S., 3.1 Tg NH3−N a−1 for the European Union, and 8.4 Tg NH3−N a−1 for China. Comparisons to previous inventories for the U.S. and European Union show consistency (∼±15%) in annual totals but some large spatial and seasonal differences. We develop a new global bottom-up inventory of NH3 emissions (Magnitude And Seasonality of Agricultural Emissions model for NH3 (MASAGE_NH3)) to interpret the results of the adjoint optimization. MASAGE_NH3 provides information on the magnitude and seasonality of NH3 emissions from individual crop and livestock sources on a 0.5° × 0.5° grid. We find that U.S. emissions peak in the spring in the Midwest due to corn fertilization and in the summer elsewhere due to manure. The seasonality of European emissions is more homogeneous with a well-defined maximum in spring associated with manure and mineral fertilizer application. There is some evidence for the effect of European regulations of NH3 emissions, notably a large fall decrease in northern Europe. Emissions in China peak in summer because of the summertime application of fertilizer for double cropping.

Intercontinental source attribution of ozone pollution at western U.S. sites using an adjoint method

[1] We use the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model and its adjoint to quantify source contributions to ozone pollution at two adjacent sites on the U.S. west coast in spring 2006: Mt. Bachelor Observatory (MBO) at 2.7 km altitude and Trinidad Head (TH) at sea level. The adjoint computes the sensitivity of ozone concentrations at the receptor sites to ozone production rates at 2° x 2.5° resolution over the history of air parcels reaching the site. MBO experiences distinct Asian ozone pollution episodes; most of the ozone production in these episodes takes place over East Asia with maxima over northeast China and southern Japan, adding to a diffuse background production distributed over the extratropical northern hemisphere. TH shows the same Asian origins for ozone as MBO but no distinct Asian pollution episodes. We find that transpacific pollution plumes transported in the free troposphere are diluted by a factor of 3 when entrained into the boundary layer, explaining why these plumes are undetectable in U.S. surface air.

Formation of Low Volatility Organic Compounds and Secondary Organic Aerosol from Isoprene Hydroxyhydroperoxide Low-NO Oxidation.

Gas-phase low volatility organic compounds (LVOC), produced from oxidation of isoprene 4-hydroxy-3-hydroperoxide (4,3-ISOPOOH) under low-NO conditions, were observed during the FIXCIT chamber study. Decreases in LVOC directly correspond to appearance and growth in secondary organic aerosol (SOA) of consistent elemental composition, indicating that LVOC condense (at OA below 1 μg m(-3)). This represents the first simultaneous measurement of condensing low volatility species from isoprene oxidation in both the gas and particle phases. The SOA formation in this study is separate from previously described isoprene epoxydiol (IEPOX) uptake. Assigning all condensing LVOC signals to 4,3-ISOPOOH oxidation in the chamber study implies a wall-loss corrected non-IEPOX SOA mass yield of ∼4%. By contrast to monoterpene oxidation, in which extremely low volatility VOC (ELVOC) constitute the organic aerosol, in the isoprene system LVOC with saturation concentrations from 10(-2) to 10 μg m(-3) are the main constituents. These LVOC may be important for the growth of nanoparticles in environments with low OA concentrations. LVOC observed in the chamber were also observed in the atmosphere during SOAS-2013 in the Southeastern United States, with the expected diurnal cycle. This previously uncharacterized aerosol formation pathway could account for ∼5.0 Tg yr(-1) of SOA production, or 3.3% of global SOA.

Role of isoprene in secondary organic aerosol formation on a regional scale

The role of isoprene as a source of secondary organic aerosol (SOA) is studied using laboratory-derived SOA yields and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency regional-scale Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling system over a domain comprising the contiguous United States, southern Canada, and northern Mexico. Isoprene is predicted to be a significant source of biogenic SOA, leading to increases up to 3.8 μg m^(−3) in the planetary boundary layer (PBL, defined as 0–2.85 km) and 0.44 μg m^(−3) in the free troposphere over that in the absence of isoprene. While the addition of isoprene to the class of SOA-forming organics in CMAQ increases appreciably predicted fine-particle organic carbon (OC_(2.5)) in the eastern and southeastern U.S., total OC_(2.5) is still underpredicted in these regions. SOA formation is highly sensitive to the value of the enthalpy of vaporization of the SOA. The role of isoprene SOA is examined in a sensitivity study at values of 42 and 156 kJ mol^(−1); both are commonly used in 3-D aerosol models. Prediction of ambient levels of SOA in atmospheric models remains a challenging problem because of the importance of emissions inventories for SOA-forming organics, representation of gas phase atmospheric chemistry leading to semivolatile products, and treatment of the physics and chemistry of aerosol formation and removal.

Impacts and mitigation of excess diesel-related NOx emissions in 11 major vehicle markets

Vehicle emissions contribute to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and tropospheric ozone air pollution, affecting human health, crop yields and climate worldwide. On-road diesel vehicles produce approximately 20 per cent of global anthropogenic emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx), which are key PM2.5 and ozone precursors. Regulated NOx emission limits in leading markets have been progressively tightened, but current diesel vehicles emit far more NOx under real-world operating conditions than during laboratory certification testing. Here we show that across 11 markets, representing approximately 80 per cent of global diesel vehicle sales, nearly one-third of on-road heavy-duty diesel vehicle emissions and over half of on-road light-duty diesel vehicle emissions are in excess of certification limits. These excess emissions (totalling 4.6 million tons) are associated with about 38,000 PM2.5- and ozone-related premature deaths globally in 2015, including about 10 per cent of all ozone-related premature deaths in the 28 European Union member states. Heavy-duty vehicles are the dominant contributor to excess diesel NOx emissions and associated health impacts in almost all regions. Adopting and enforcing next-generation standards (more stringent than Euro 6/VI) could nearly eliminate real-world diesel-related NOx emissions in these markets, avoiding approximately 174,000 global PM2.5- and ozone-related premature deaths in 2040. Most of these benefits can be achieved by implementing Euro VI standards where they have not yet been adopted for heavy-duty vehicles.

Quantifying spatial and seasonal variability in atmospheric ammonia with in situ and space-based observations

Ammonia plays an important role in many biogeochemical processes, yet atmospheric mixing ratios are not well known. Recently, methods have been developed for retrieving NH3 from space-based observations, but they have not been compared to in situ measurements. We have conducted a field campaign combining co-located surface measurements and satellite special observations from the Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES). Our study includes 25 surface monitoring sites spanning 350 km across eastern North Carolina, a region with large seasonal and spatial variability in NH3. From the TES spectra, we retrieve a NH3 representative volume mixing ratio (RVMR), and we restrict our analysis to times when the region of the atmosphere observed by TES is representative of the surface measurement. We find that the TES NH3 RVMR qualitatively captures the seasonal and spatial variability found in eastern North Carolina. Both surface measurements and TES NH3 show a strong correspondence with the number of livestock facilities within 10 km of the observation. Furthermore, we find that TES NH3 RVMR captures the month-to-month variability present in the surface observations. The high correspondence with in situ measurements and vast spatial coverage make TES NH3 RVMR a valuable tool for understanding regional and global NH3 fluxes.

Carbon Monitoring System Flux Estimation and Attribution: Impact of ACOS-GOSAT X(CO2) Sampling on the Inference of Terrestrial Biospheric Sources and Sinks

Using an Observing System Simulation Experiment (OSSE), we investigate the impact of JAXA Greenhouse gases Observing SATellite ‘IBUKI’ (GOSAT) sampling on the estimation of terrestrial biospheric flux with the NASA Carbon Monitoring System Flux (CMS-Flux) estimation and attribution strategy. The simulated observations in the OSSE use the actual column carbon dioxide (XCO2 ) b2.9 retrieval sensitivity and quality control for the year 2010 processed through the Atmospheric CO2 Observations from Space algorithm. CMS-Flux is a variational inversion system that uses the GEOS-Chem forward and adjoint model forced by a suite of observationally constrained fluxes from ocean, land and anthropogenic models. We investigate the impact of GOSAT sampling on flux estimation in two aspects: 1) random error uncertainty reduction and 2) the global and regional bias in posterior flux resulted from the spatiotemporally biased GOSAT sampling. Based on Monte Carlo calculations, we find that global average flux uncertainty reduction ranges from 25% in September to 60% in July. When aggregated to the 11 land regions designated by the phase 3 of the Atmospheric Tracer Transport Model Intercomparison Project, the annual mean uncertainty reduction ranges from 10% over North American boreal to 38% over South American temperate, which is driven by observational coverage and the magnitude of prior flux uncertainty. The uncertainty reduction over the South American tropical region is 30%, even with sparse observation coverage. We show that this reduction results from the large prior flux uncertainty and the impact of non-local observations. Given the assumed prior error statistics, the degree of freedom for signal is ~1132 for 1-yr of the 74 055 GOSAT XCO2 observations, which indicates that GOSAT provides ~1132 independent pieces of information about surface fluxes. We quantify the impact of GOSATs spatiotemporally sampling on the posterior flux, and find that a 0.7 gigatons of carbon bias in the global annual posterior flux resulted from the seasonally and diurnally biased sampling when using a diagonal prior flux error covariance.