David A. Kennedy

Imperfect Vaccination Can Enhance the Transmission of Highly Virulent Pathogens

Could some vaccines drive the evolution of more virulent pathogens? Conventional wisdom is that natural selection will remove highly lethal pathogens if host death greatly reduces transmission. Vaccines that keep hosts alive but still allow transmission could thus allow very virulent strains to circulate in a population. Here we show experimentally that immunization of chickens against Mareks disease virus enhances the fitness of more virulent strains, making it possible for hyperpathogenic strains to transmit. Immunity elicited by direct vaccination or by maternal vaccination prolongs host survival but does not prevent infection, viral replication or transmission, thus extending the infectious periods of strains otherwise too lethal to persist. Our data show that anti-disease vaccines that do not prevent transmission can create conditions that promote the emergence of pathogen strains that cause more severe disease in unvaccinated hosts.

The evolution of courtship behaviors through the origination of a new gene in Drosophila

New genes can originate by the combination of sequences from unrelated genes or their duplicates to form a chimeric structure. These chimeric genes often evolve rapidly, suggesting that they undergo adaptive evolution and may therefore be involved in novel phenotypes. Their functions, however, are rarely known. Here, we describe the phenotypic effects of a chimeric gene, sphinx, that has recently evolved in Drosophila melanogaster. We show that a knockout of this gene leads to increased male–male courtship in D. melanogaster, although it leaves other aspects of mating behavior unchanged. Comparative studies of courtship behavior in other closely related Drosophila species suggest that this mutant phenotype of male–male courtship is the ancestral condition because these related species show much higher levels of male–male courtship than D. melanogaster. D. melanogaster therefore seems to have evolved in its courtship behaviors by the recruitment of a new chimeric gene.

Why does drug resistance readily evolve but vaccine resistance does not

Why is drug resistance common and vaccine resistance rare? Drugs and vaccines both impose substantial pressure on pathogen populations to evolve resistance and indeed, drug resistance typically emerges soon after the introduction of a drug. But vaccine resistance has only rarely emerged. Using well-established principles of population genetics and evolutionary ecology, we argue that two key differences between vaccines and drugs explain why vaccines have so far proved more robust against evolution than drugs. First, vaccines tend to work prophylactically while drugs tend to work therapeutically. Second, vaccines tend to induce immune responses against multiple targets on a pathogen while drugs tend to target very few. Consequently, pathogen populations generate less variation for vaccine resistance than they do for drug resistance, and selection has fewer opportunities to act on that variation. When vaccine resistance has evolved, these generalities have been violated. With careful forethought, it may be possible to identify vaccines at risk of failure even before they are introduced.

The effect of immunodeficiency on the evolution of virulence: an experimental test with the rodent malaria Plasmodium chabaudi.

Host immunity plays an important role in the evolution of pathogen virulence and disease emergence. There is increasing theoretical and empirical evidence that enhanced immunity through vaccination may have the unfortunate side effect of selecting for more virulent parasites, but the effect of host immune suppression on pathogen evolution is less clear. Here, we use serial passage experiments in mice to test how immune-suppressed hosts may alter pathogen virulence evolution. We passaged Plasmodium chabaudi through CD4+ T cell–depleted or control mice every 7 days for 20 weeks and then measured virulence differences during infection of immunologically normal mice. We found that those parasites that had been selected through CD4+ T cell–depleted mice were more virulent than parasites selected through control mice. Virulence increases during serial passage are believed to be caused by pathogen adaptation to the passage host. These data suggest that immune-suppressed hosts could provide a within-host environment that lowers the barrier to parasite adaptation and promotes the evolution of virulence.

Pathogen Growth in Insect Hosts: Inferring the Importance of Different Mechanisms Using Stochastic Models and Response-Time Data

Pathogen population dynamics within individual hosts can alter disease epidemics and pathogen evolution, but our understanding of the mechanisms driving within-host dynamics is weak. Mathematical models have provided useful insights, but existing models have only rarely been subjected to rigorous tests, and their reliability is therefore open to question. Most models assume that initial pathogen population sizes are so large that stochastic effects due to small population sizes, so-called demographic stochasticity, are negligible, but whether this assumption is reasonable is unknown. Most models also assume that the dynamic effects of a host’s immune system strongly affect pathogen incubation times or “response times,” but whether such effects are important in real host-pathogen interactions is likewise unknown. Here we use data for a baculovirus of the gypsy moth to test models of within-host pathogen growth. By using Bayesian statistical techniques and formal model-selection procedures, we are able to show that the response time of the gypsy moth virus is strongly affected by both demographic stochasticity and a dynamic response of the host immune system. Our results imply that not all response-time variability can be explained by host and pathogen variability, and that immune system responses to infection may have important effects on population-level disease dynamics.

Using quantitative disease dynamics as a tool for guiding response to avian influenza in poultry in the United States of America

Wild birds are the primary source of genetic diversity for influenza A viruses that eventually emerge in poultry and humans. Much progress has been made in the descriptive ecology of avian influenza viruses (AIVs), but contributions are less evident from quantitative studies (e.g., those including disease dynamic models). Transmission between host species, individuals and flocks has not been measured with sufficient accuracy to allow robust quantitative evaluation of alternate control protocols. We focused on the United States of America (USA) as a case study for determining the state of our quantitative knowledge of potential AIV emergence processes from wild hosts to poultry. We identified priorities for quantitative research that would build on existing tools for responding to AIV in poultry and concluded that the following knowledge gaps can be addressed with current empirical data: (1) quantification of the spatio-temporal relationships between AIV prevalence in wild hosts and poultry populations, (2) understanding how the structure of different poultry sectors impacts within-flock transmission, (3) determining mechanisms and rates of between-farm spread, and (4) validating current policy-decision tools with data. The modeling studies we recommend will improve our mechanistic understanding of potential AIV transmission patterns in USA poultry, leading to improved measures of accuracy and reduced uncertainty when evaluating alternative control strategies.

DNA from Dust: Comparative Genomics of Large DNA Viruses in Field Surveillance Samples

Despite both clinical and laboratory data that show increased virulence in field isolates of MDV-1 over the last half century, we do not yet understand the genetic basis of its pathogenicity. Our knowledge of genome-wide variation between strains of this virus comes exclusively from isolates that have been cultured in the laboratory. MDV-1 isolates tend to lose virulence during repeated cycles of replication in the laboratory, raising concerns about the ability of cultured isolates to accurately reflect virus in the field. The ability to directly sequence and compare field isolates of this virus is critical to understanding the genetic basis of rising virulence in the wild. Our approaches remove the prior requirement for cell culture and allow direct measurement of viral genomic variation within and between hosts, over time, and during adaptation to changing conditions. ABSTRACT The intensification of the poultry industry over the last 60 years facilitated the evolution of increased virulence and vaccine breaks in Marek’s disease virus (MDV-1). Full-genome sequences are essential for understanding why and how this evolution occurred, but what is known about genome-wide variation in MDV comes from laboratory culture. To rectify this, we developed methods for obtaining high-quality genome sequences directly from field samples without the need for sequence-based enrichment strategies prior to sequencing. We applied this to the first characterization of MDV-1 genomes from the field, without prior culture. These viruses were collected from vaccinated hosts that acquired naturally circulating field strains of MDV-1, in the absence of a disease outbreak. This reflects the current issue afflicting the poultry industry, where virulent field strains continue to circulate despite vaccination and can remain undetected due to the lack of overt disease symptoms. We found that viral genomes from adjacent field sites had high levels of overall DNA identity, and despite strong evidence of purifying selection, had coding variations in proteins associated with virulence and manipulation of host immunity. Our methods empower ecological field surveillance, make it possible to determine the basis of viral virulence and vaccine breaks, and can be used to obtain full genomes from clinical samples of other large DNA viruses, known and unknown. IMPORTANCE Despite both clinical and laboratory data that show increased virulence in field isolates of MDV-1 over the last half century, we do not yet understand the genetic basis of its pathogenicity. Our knowledge of genome-wide variation between strains of this virus comes exclusively from isolates that have been cultured in the laboratory. MDV-1 isolates tend to lose virulence during repeated cycles of replication in the laboratory, raising concerns about the ability of cultured isolates to accurately reflect virus in the field. The ability to directly sequence and compare field isolates of this virus is critical to understanding the genetic basis of rising virulence in the wild. Our approaches remove the prior requirement for cell culture and allow direct measurement of viral genomic variation within and between hosts, over time, and during adaptation to changing conditions.

Combining principal component analysis with parameter line-searches to improve the efficacy of Metropolis–Hastings MCMC

When Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are used with complex mechanistic models, convergence times are often severely compromised by poor mixing rates and a lack of computational power. Methods such as adaptive algorithms have been developed to improve mixing, but these algorithms are typically highly sophisticated, both mathematically and computationally. Here we present a nonadaptive MCMC algorithm, which we term line-search MCMC, that can be used for efficient tuning of proposal distributions in a highly parallel computing environment, but that nevertheless requires minimal skill in parallel computing to implement. We apply this algorithm to make inferences about dynamical models of the growth of a pathogen (baculovirus) population inside a host (gypsy moth, Lymantria dispar). The line-search MCMC appeal rests on its ease of implementation, and its potential for efficiency improvements over classical MCMC in a highly parallel setting, which makes it especially useful for ecological models.

Alternative mating behaviors of the queen polymorphic ant Temnothorax longispinosus

Mating behaviors of ants fall into two categories: female calling, in which a female alate releases pheromones that attract males, and male swarming, in which large male aggregations attract females. Female calling is common in species with queens that return to their natal nest to found colonies dependently after mating, while male swarming is common in species with queens that disperse to found independently. In some species that display both founding strategies, a queen-size polymorphism has evolved in which dependent-founding queens are smaller than independent-founding queens. Dependent founding is likely difficult if gynes (virgin queens) are mating in distant swarms. Therefore, a queen may adopt one or the other mating strategy based on its size and founding behavior. We investigated mating behaviors in the queen-polymorphic ant, Temnothorax longispinosus. Observations in laboratory mating arenas indicated that small gynes exhibited significantly lower flight activity than large gynes. Both forms mated in male swarms, and neither form exhibited female calling. The reduced flight activity of the small morph may facilitate returning to the natal nest after mating, provided the mating swarm is located nearby. Therefore, alternative colony-founding behaviors may be possible without the evolution of female-calling behavior; however, the reduced flight activity of small morphs may require that mating swarms are not distant from the natal nest.

Industry-Wide Surveillance of Marek's Disease Virus on Commercial Poultry Farms

SUMMARY Mareks disease virus is a herpesvirus of chickens that costs the worldwide poultry industry more than US