David Beaudoin

Optimal batting orders in one-day cricket

This paper concerns the search for optimal or nearly optimal batting orders in one-day cricket. A search is conducted over the space of permutations of batting orders where simulated annealing is used to explore the space. A non-standard aspect of the optimization is that the objective function (which is the mean number of runs per innings) is unavailable and is approximated via simulation. The simulation component generates runs ball by ball during an innings taking into account the state of the match and estimated characteristics of individual batsmen. The methods developed in the paper are applied to the national team of India based on their performance in one-day intemational cricket matches.

IPCW Estimator for Kendall's Tau under Bivariate Censoring

We investigate the nonparametric estimation of Kendalls coefficient of concordance, ?, for measuring the association between two variables under bivariate censoring. The proposed estimator is a modification of the estimator introduced by Oakes (1982), using a Horvitz-Thompson-type correction for the pairs that are not orderable. With censored data, a pair is orderable if one can establish whether the uncensored pair is discordant or concordant using the data available for that pair. Our estimator is shown to be consistent and asymptotically normally distributed. A simulation study shows that the proposed estimator performs well when compared with competing alternatives. The various methods are illustrated with a real data set.

Archimedean copula model selection under dependent truncation

One-sided truncated survival data arise when a pair of time-to-event variables (X, Y) is observed only when X<Y. Existing methods of analysis rely on the assumption of quasi-independence between X and Y. Recently, Lakhal-Chaieb et al. (Biometrika 2006; 93:655-669) modeled potential dependency between these random variables via a semi-survival Archimedean copula. In this paper, we present a model selection procedure to rank a set of semi-survival Archimedean copula families according to their ability to fit a given data set subject to dependent truncation. The proposed procedure is based on a truncated version of Kendalls tau (J. Multivariate Anal. 1996; 56:60-74). The performance of the proposal is illustrated through simulations and three real data sets.

Strategies for Pulling the Goalie in Hockey

This article develops a simulator for matches in the National Hockey League (NHL) with the intent of assessing strategies for pulling the goaltender. Aspects of the approach that are novel include breaking the game down into finer and more realistic situations, introducing the effect of penalties, and including the home-ice advantage. Parameter estimates used in the simulator are obtained through the analysis of an extensive dataset using constrained Bayesian estimation via Markov chain methods. Some surprising strategies are obtained which do not appear to be used by NHL coaches.

Prediction of the margin of victory only from team rankings for regular season games in NCAA men’s basketball

The main objective of this article was to investigate the extent to which the margin of victory can be predicted solely by the rankings of the opposing teams in NCAA Division I men’s basketball games. Several past studies have modeled this relationship for the games played during the March Madness tournament. This work aimed at verifying whether the models advocated in previous studies can accurately predict the margin of victory in regular season games. Indeed, most previous articles have shown that a simple quadratic regression model provides fairly accurate predictions of the margin of victory when team rankings only range from 1 to 16. Does that still hold true when team rankings increase to 351? Do the model assumptions hold? Can semi- or nonparametric methods that yield even better results (i.e. predicted margins of victory that more closely resemble actual results) be found? The analyses presented in this article suggest that the answer is “yes” to all three questions!

Biased penalty calls in the National Hockey League

This paper investigates penalty calls in the National Hockey League NHL. Our study shows that there are various situational effects that are associated with the next penalty call. These situational effects are related to the accumulated penalty calls, the goal differential, the stage of the match and the relative strengths of the two teams. We also investigate individual referee effects across the NHL.