David C. Broadstock

Transportation oil demand, consumer preferences and asymmetric prices

Purpose - The aim of this paper is to establish the role of asymmetric price decompositions in UK road transportation fuel demand, make explicit the impact of the underlying energy demand trend, and disaggregate the estimation for gasoline and diesel demand as separate commodities. Design/methodology/approach - Dynamic UK transport oil demand functions are estimated using the Seemingly Unrelated Structural Time Series Model with decomposed prices to allow for asymmetric price responses. Findings - The importance of starting with a flexible modelling approach that incorporates both an underlying demand trend and asymmetric price response function is highlighted. Furthermore, these features can lead to different insights and policy implications than might arise from a model without them. As an example, a zero elasticity for a price-cut is found (for both gasoline and diesel), implying that price reductions do not induce demand for road transportation fuel in the UK. Originality/value - The paper illustrates the importance of joint modelling of gasoline and diesel demand incorporating both asymmetric price responses and stochastic underlying energy demand trends.

Gasoline Demand in Greece: The Importance of Shifts in the Underlying Energy Demand Trend

This paper explores the relative importance of factors other than price and income in explaining gasoline demand in Greece between 1978 and 2008. Using a structural time series model (STSM) the long-run elasticities of income and price are 0.45 and −0.32, respectively. Further, it is shown using the estimated underlying energy demand trend (UEDT) that other exogenous factors have been shifting the gasoline demand curve to the right, thus reflecting more energy-intensive lifestyles in Greece. Given the results, it is contended that the kinds of policies that governments can use to manage gasoline demand and move toward sustainable transportation go beyond the usual price mechanism.

Underlying consumer preferences and their contribution to energy demand

The demand for energy is not simply a function of price and income, but can be shown to also be a function of the underlying energy demand trend (UEDT). The UEDT not only captures behavioural responses to non-fiscal instruments, including technological change, but also encapsulates attitudinal responses/changes in demand that might result, for instance, from increased public awareness of how environmentally damaging energy use can be; hence, reflecting underlying consumer preferences. Copyright 2009 The Authors. Journal compilation 2009 Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.

The Demand for ‘Active Travel’: An Unobserved Components Approach

This study informs the interface of travel demand analysis and health policy. There is a demand for cycling, walking or taking non-motorized modes together – a demand for ‘active travel’ – a term describing modes of transport which incur significant cardiovascular effort or metabolic costs. It is possible to establish a meaningful and policy relevant view of active travel demand by controlling for partially unobservable (not simply unobserved) generalized cost effects – where generalized cost can be considered the sum of all individual cost-components. Using monthly aggregated data from the UK National Travel Survey it is found that income effects are greater for lower income households and diminish with wealth and that some ‘seasonal substitution’, due to ‘generalized’ cost effects, can be identified. One consequence of this is that policy for active travel needs to be seasonally adaptive to reflect these substitution effects.

Energy Prices, Sectoral Indices and Regulation

The aim of this research is to examine the time-varying correlation between selected industrial sector indices (oil-intensive, oil-substitutes and non-oil-related) and oil price shocks. We investigate this correlation for both oil-importing and oil-exporting economies. Using data from 1998 until 2013 and employing a Scalar-BEKK model, we report the following regularities: (1) the correlation between oil price shocks and index returns are showing some differences depending on whether a country is oil-importer or oil-exporter, (2) the correlations are industry-specific and shock-specific and (3) the demand-side shocks mainly generate moderate positive correlations, whereas index returns have low to zero correlation with the supply-side shocks. Prominent among our results is that oil-specific demand shocks have a moderate positive correlation with all indices. Our results have important implication for investors, as well as policy makers.

A possible role for discriminatory fuel duty in reducing the emissions from road transport: Some UK evidence

It is shown that the relative demands for gasoline and diesel fuels are price-responsive. Given the differing emissions-based externalities from these two fuel types, it is contended that discriminatory fuel duty might be a means to reduce these externalities. Results are derived from an Almost Ideal Demand System with time-varying technological progress, estimated using a bootstrap procedure given the nonnormalities and relative small sample sizes.

Towards Sustainable Urban Development:Traffic Generation At Food Superstores In The UK

In the light of increasing concern over home-shopping traffic growth that is generated by food superstores in the United Kingdom (UK) and elsewhere and their possible role in reinforcing a ‘food desert’ effect, this paper introduces an empirical framework for developing policy decisions. A trip attraction model is estimated by ordinary least squares (OLS) for food superstores in the UK using a composite dataset that is constructed from data from the UK Census of Population, the UK National Online Manpower Information System (NOMIS), and the Trip Rate Information Computer System (TRICS). The paper found that traffic to a given food superstore, other things being equal, increases with car ownership, parking provision, retail floor space, distance to the nearest competitor and, perhaps surprisingly, increased public transport provision. The latter effect is discussed in the light of a possible explanation linked to the ‘food deserts’ debate, along with the associated implications for effective (inner-urban) sustainable development. Increases in household size are found to be associated with a fall in vehicle traffic to a site, due to household modes of transport.

Determining trip attraction rates for the UK office developments with limited observations and missing data

Development planning decisions are heavily reliant upon expensive and relatively scarce trip rate information data. With a view to curtailing excessive car use, development planning decisions must be made irrespective of how sparse the data are. In this regard, this study uses the UKs primary data source for trip rate data (Trip Rate Information Computer System, TRICS) to understand how incomplete information can influence the types of development/policy decisions that might arise from this data. Even within this source, there are elements of missing data, and the decision of how to handle these data gaps can affect planning decisions. Based upon a trip rate regression model, a sensitivity analysis of several common methods for handling incomplete data reveals there remains substantial divergence amongst what superficially appears to be fairly robust parameter estimates and, hence, planning outcomes.

Modelling car trip generations for UK residential developments using data from TRICS

Abstract This paper models trip generation for a cross-section of residential developments around the UK. Consistent with recent literature, the empirical model tests whether trip making patterns for residential developments are independent of car ownership and finds that trip generation is dependent upon car ownership socio-economic factors and site-specific characteristics, in particular land-zone type (e.g. town centre, out of town, etc.). However, public transport services are not found to have a significant relationship with trip generation; consequently, a policy implication of the results is that increasing bus services to residential developments is not associated with a reduction in generated trips.