David Card

Skill Biased Technological Change and Rising Wage Inequality: Some Problems and Puzzles

The recent rise in wage inequality is usually attributed to skill‐biased technical change (SBTC), associated with new computer technologies. We review the evidence for this hypothesis, focusing on the implications of SBTC for overall wage inequality and for changes in wage differentials between groups. A key problem for the SBTC hypothesis is that wage inequality stabilized in the 1990s despite continuing advances in computer technology; SBTC also fails to explain the evolution of other dimensions of wage inequality, including the gender and racial wage gaps and the age gradient in the return to education.

School Quality and Black-White Relative Earnings: A Direct Assessment

The average wage differential between black and white men fell from 40 percent in 1960 to 25 percent in 1980. Much of this convergence is attributable to a relative increase in the rate of return to schooling among black workers. It is widely argued that the growth in the relative return to black education reflects the dramatic improvements in the quality of black schooling over the past century. To test this hypothesis we have assembled data on three aspects of school quality -- pupil teacher ratios. annual teacher pay. and term length for black and white schools in 18 segregated states from 1915 to 1966. The school quality data are linked to estimated rates of return to education for Southern-born men from different cohorts and states. measured in 1960. 1970. and 1980. Improvements in the relative quality of black schools explain 20 percent of the narrowing of the black-white earnings gap between 1960 and 1980.

THE EFFECT OF UNIONS ON THE STRUCTURE OF WAGES: A LONGITUDINAL ANALYSIS

This paper studies the effects of unions on the structure of wages using an estimation technique that accounts for misclassification errors in reported union status and potential correlations between union status and unobserved productivity. The model is estimated separately for five skill groups using a panel data set formed from the U.S. Current Population Survey. The results suggest that unions raise wages more for workers with lower levels of observed skills. Union workers are positively selected from the population of workers with lower levels of observed skill and negatively selected from the population with higher observed skills. Copyright 1996 by The Econometric Society.

Measuring the Effect of Subsidized Training Programs on Movements In and Out of Employment

We present a variety of alternative estimates of the effect of training on the probability of employment for adult male participants in the 1976 Comprehensive Employment and Training Act (CETA) program. Our results suggest that CETA participation increased the probability of employment in the three years after training by from 2 to 5 percentage points. Classroom training programs appear to have had significantly larger effects than on-the--job programs, although the estimated effects of both kinds of programs are consistently positive. We also find that movements in and out of employment for the trainees and a control group of nonparticipants are reasonably well described by a first-order Markov process, conditional on individual heterogeneity. In the context of this model, CETA participation appears to have increased both the probability of moving into employment, and the probability of continuing employment.

School Finance Reform, the Distribution of School Spending, and the Distribution of Sat Scores

In this paper we study the effects of school finance reforms on the distribution of school spending across richer and poorer districts, and the consequences of spending equalization for the distribution of SAT scores across children from different family backgrounds. We use school district data from the 1977 and 1992 Censuses of Governments to measure the correlation between state funding per pupil and median family income in each district. We find that states where the school finance system was declared unconstitutional in the 1980s increased the relative funding of low-income districts. Increases in state funds available to poorer districts led to comparable or only slightly smaller increases in the relative spending of these districts, implying significant equalization of expenditures per pupil across richer and poorer districts. Using micro samples of SAT scores from this same period, we study the effect of changes in spending inequality within states on the gaps in test scores for children from different family backgrounds. We develop a two-sample procedure to estimate the fraction of students from each background group who write the test, and use these fractions to adjust for selectivity biases in observed test score outcomes. We find some evidence that the equalization of spending across districts leads to a narrowing of test score outcomes across family background groups.

Extended benefits and the duration of UI spells: evidence from the New Jersey extended benefit program

In 1996 a political trade-off in the New Jersey legislature led to a six-month program that provided up to 13 additional weeks of exhausted their regular benefit entitlement. We use this unique episode to provide new evidence on the effect of changes in the duration of unemployment insurance (UI) benefits on the behavior of UI claimants. Unlike most benefit extensions, the New Jersey Extended Benefit (NJEB) program arose during a period of stable economic conditions, allowing us to sidestep the important issue of endogenous policy adoption. We use aggregate state-level data and administrative records for individual UI claimants from before, during, and after the NJEB program to estimate its impact on unemployment spell lengths. Overall, we find that the NJEB program raised the fraction of UI claimants who exhausted their regular benefits by 1-3 percentage points. More importantly, however, we find that the short-term nature of the benefit extension substantially moderated its effect. For individuals who were receiving UI when the benefit extension was passed, we estimate that the rate of leaving UI fell by about 15 percent. Simulations suggest that if the program had run long enough to affect UI claimants from the first day of their spell, the fraction of recipients exhausting regular benefits would have risen by 7 percentage points, and the average recipient would have collected about one extra week or regular benefits.

The Effect of Unions on Wage Inequality in the U.S. Labor Market

This study uses Current Population Survey micro data for 1973–74 and 1993 to evaluate the effect of changing union membership on trends in male and female wage inequality. Unionization rates of men fell between the two sample periods, with bigger declines among lower skill groups. These trends account for 15–20% of the rise in male wage inequality. Union membership rates of low-wage women also declined, while unionization increased among higher-wage women. On balance, shifting unionization accounts for very little of the rise in female wage inequality. Economy-wide trends in unionization mask a sharp divergence between the private sector, where unionism was declining, and the public sector, where it was rising. Comparisons across sectors suggest that unionization substantially slowed the growth in wage inequality in the public sector.

Unemployment Insurance Taxes and the Cyclical and Seasonal Properties of Unemployment

We combine Current Population Survey microdata for 1979-1987 with a newly assembled database of tax rates for the Unemployment Insurance system to measure the effects of imperfect experience-rating on temporary layoffs and other types of unemployment. We find a strong negative association between the degree of experience-rating and the rate of temporary layoff unemployment, with the largest effect in recessionary years and the smallest effect in expansionary years. Increases in the degree of experience-rating are also associated with dampened seasonal fluctuations in temporary layoffs, particularly in construction and durable manufacturing. The correlation between the degree of experience-rating and the unemployment rate of permanent job losers is smaller but also negative, whereas the correlation with the unemployment Me of job quitters and re-entrants is negligible. Attempts to control for the endogeneity of unemployment insurance taxes are consistent with a causal interpretation of our findings.

Strikes and Wages: A Test of an Asymmetric Information Model

This paper describes a simple model of labor disputes based on the hypothesis that unions use strikes to infer the profitability of the firm. The model posits the existence of a negatively sloped resistance curve between wages and strike duration. In addition, it offer a series of predictions relating wage and strike outcomes to changes in the expected profitability of the firm and changes in the alternative opportunities of striking workers. These implications are tested using data on wage outcomes, strike probabilities, and strike durations for a large sample of collective bargaining agreements.

The Labor Market Impacts of Youth Training in the Dominican Republic

We report the impacts of a job training program operated in the Dominican Republic. A random sample of applicants was selected to undergo training, and information was gathered 10–14 months after graduation. Unfortunately, people originally assigned to treatment who failed to show up were not included in the follow-up survey, potentially compromising the evaluation design. We present estimates of the program effect, including comparisons that ignore the potential nonrandomness of “no-show” behavior, and estimates that model selectivity parametrically. We find little indication of a positive effect on employment outcomes but some evidence of a modest effect on earnings, conditional on working.