David Carslake

Causal associations of tobacco smoking with cardiovascular risk factors: a Mendelian randomization analysis of the HUNT Study in Norway

BACKGROUND Tobacco smoking has been associated with cardiovascular risk factors including adverse serum lipid levels, central obesity and higher resting heart rate, but lower blood pressure and body mass index (BMI). We used a Mendelian randomization approach to study whether these associations may be causal. If smoking affects cardiovascular risk factors then rs1051730 T alleles, predictors of increased smoking quantity, should be associated with cardiovascular risk factors among smokers, but not among never smokers. METHODS Among 56,625 participants of a population-based study, we estimated associations of rs1051730 T alleles with cardiovascular risk factors and examined whether the associations differed by smoking status. RESULTS Rs1051730 T alleles were associated with lower BMI and waist and hip circumferences and higher resting heart rate and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), and the associations were strongest among current smokers (P interaction 5×10(-9) to 0.01). Rs1051730 T alleles were associated with lower systolic blood pressure and pulse pressure and higher HDL cholesterol concentrations, but these associations did not robustly differ by smoking status. There were no convincing associations of rs1051730 T alleles with waist-hip ratio, diastolic blood pressure and non-fasting serum concentrations of non-HDL cholesterol, triglycerides, glucose and C-reactive protein. CONCLUSIONS This Mendelian randomization analysis provides evidence that smoking may cause lower BMI and waist and hip circumferences and higher resting heart rate and eGFR. The findings further suggest that smoking is not a major determinant of waist-hip ratio or adverse blood pressure, serum lipid or glucose levels.

Comparison of father-offspring and mother-offspring associations of cardiovascular risk factors: family linkage within the population-based HUNT Study, Norway

BACKGROUND Cardiovascular risk factors are transmitted from parents to offspring; however, the relative contributions of fathers and mothers remain unclear. If maternal exposures during pregnancy influence offspring through the intrauterine environment, associations between mothers and offspring are expected to be stronger than between fathers and offspring. In this family linkage study we compared father-offspring and mother-offspring associations of several cardiovascular risk factors. METHODS The study population consisted of 36,528 father-mother-offspring trios who participated at one or more surveys of the HUNT Study, Norway in 1984-86, 1995-97 and 2006-08. Parent-offspring associations were assessed using unstandardized and standardized residuals from linear regression analysis, and possible non-paternity was accounted for in sensitivity analyses. RESULTS Age- and sex-adjusted parent-offspring associations for anthropometric factors, blood pressure, blood lipids, blood glucose and resting heart rate were largely similar between fathers and mothers. Use of standardized values and analyses adjusted for non-paternity further emphasized this similarity. CONCLUSIONS This study found largely similar father-offspring and mother-offspring associations across all cardiovascular risk factors under study, arguing against strong maternal effects transmitted through intrauterine mechanisms.

Exploring causal associations of alcohol with cardiovascular and metabolic risk factors in a Chinese population using Mendelian randomization analysis

Observational studies suggest that moderate alcohol consumption may be protective for cardiovascular disease, but results may be biased by confounding and reverse causality. Mendelian randomization, which uses genetic variants as proxies for exposures, can minimise these biases and therefore strengthen causal inference. Using a genetic variant in the ALDH2 gene associated with alcohol consumption, rs671, we performed a Mendelian randomization analysis in 1,712 diabetes cases and 2,076 controls from Nantong, China. Analyses were performed using linear and logistic regression, stratified by sex and diabetes status. The A allele of rs671 was strongly associated with reduced odds of being an alcohol drinker in all groups, but prevalence of alcohol consumption amongst females was very low. The A allele was associated with reduced systolic and diastolic blood pressure and decreased total and HDL cholesterol in males. The A allele was also associated with decreased triglyceride levels, but only robustly in diabetic males. There was no strong evidence for associations between rs671 and any outcomes in females. Our results suggest that associations of alcohol consumption with blood pressure and HDL-cholesterol are causal. Alcohol also appeared to have adverse effects on triglyceride levels, although this may be restricted to diabetics.

Yolk androgen deposition without an energetic cost for female rockhopper penguins: a compensatory strategy to accelerate brood reduction?

Whether androgen deposition in eggs is physiologically costly for female birds has remained a crucial but unsolved question, despite a broad use of this assumption in functional studies. We tested whether females depositing high androgen concentrations experienced higher mass losses than females depositing low androgen concentrations. Analysing female body mass change during egg formation in rockhopper penguins (Eudyptes chrysocome chrysocome), we observed no energetic cost to androgen deposition. Nevertheless, lighter females laid eggs with higher yolk androgen concentrations. This relationship existed only for the second-laid egg (B-egg), but not for the first-laid egg (A-egg). Since the B-egg is usually the first to hatch and the only one to produce a fledging chick, we hypothesize that differential yolk androgen deposition may be an adaptive strategy for females to affect brood reduction.

Association of body mass index with depression, anxiety and suicide-an instrumental variable analysis of the HUNT study

Objective While high body mass index is associated with an increased risk of depression and anxiety, cumulative evidence indicates that it is a protective factor for suicide. The associations from conventional observational studies of body mass index with mental health outcomes are likely to be influenced by reverse causality or confounding by ill-health. In the present study, we investigated the associations between offspring body mass index and parental anxiety, depression and suicide in order to avoid problems with reverse causality and confounding by ill-health. Methods We used data from 32,457 mother-offspring and 27,753 father-offspring pairs from the Norwegian HUNT-study. Anxiety and depression were assessed using the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale and suicide death from national registers. Associations between offspring and own body mass index and symptoms of anxiety and depression and suicide mortality were estimated using logistic and Cox regression. Causal effect estimates were estimated with a two sample instrument variable approach using offspring body mass index as an instrument for parental body mass index. Results Both own and offspring body mass index were positively associated with depression, while the results did not indicate any substantial association between body mass index and anxiety. Although precision was low, suicide mortality was inversely associated with own body mass index and the results from the analysis using offspring body mass index supported these results. Adjusted odds ratios per standard deviation body mass index from the instrumental variable analysis were 1.22 (95% CI: 1.05, 1.43) for depression, 1.10 (95% CI: 0.95, 1.27) for anxiety, and the instrumental variable estimated hazard ratios for suicide was 0.69 (95% CI: 0.30, 1.63). Conclusion The present study’s results indicate that suicide mortality is inversely associated with body mass index. We also found support for a positive association between body mass index and depression, but not for anxiety.

Associations of mortality with own height using son's height as an instrumental variable

Highlights ► Associations of exposures with mortality may be confounded by existing ill health. ► We used a sons height as an instrument for parents’ height to avoid confounding. ► Parents of taller sons had lower cardiovascular and respiratory disease mortality. ► Parents of taller sons had higher mortality from cancer. ► Previous studies of height are not substantially confounded by existing ill health.

Being overweight in early adulthood is associated with increased mortality in middle age

Observational analyses of the association between body mass index (BMI) and all-cause mortality often suggest that overweight is neutral or beneficial, but such analyses are potentially confounded by smoking or by reverse causation. The use of BMI measured in early adulthood offers one means of reducing the latter problem. We used a cohort who were first measured while 16–24 year old students at Glasgow University in 1948–1968 and subsequently re-measured in 2000–2003, offering a rare opportunity to compare BMI measured at different ages as a predictor of mortality. Analysis of the later BMI measurements suggested that overweight was beneficial to survival, while analysis of BMI measured in early adulthood suggested that overweight was harmful and that the optimum BMI lay towards the lower end of the recommended range of 18.5–25 kg m−2. We interpret the association with later BMI as being probably distorted by reverse causality, although it remains possible instead that the optimum BMI increases with age. Differences when analyses were restricted to healthy non-smokers also suggested some residual confounding by smoking. These results suggest that analyses of BMI recorded in middle or old age probably over-estimate the optimum BMI for survival and should be treated with caution.

Common genetic variants and health outcomes appear geographically structured in the UK Biobank sample: Old concerns returning and their implications.

The inclusion of genetic data in large studies has enabled the discovery of genetic contributions to complex traits and their application in applied analyses including those using genetic risk scores (GRS) for the prediction of phenotypic variance. If genotypes show structure by location and coincident structure exists for the trait of interest, analyses can be biased. Having illustrated structure in an apparently homogeneous collection, we aimed to a) test for geographical stratification of genotypes in UK Biobank and b) assess whether stratification might induce bias in genetic association analysis. We found that single genetic variants are associated with birth location within UK Biobank and that geographic structure in genetic data could not be accounted for using routine adjustment for study centre and principal components (PCs) derived from genotype data. We found that GRS for complex traits do appear geographically structured and analysis using GRS can yield biased associations. We discuss the likely origins of these observations and potential implications for analysis within large-scale population based genetic studies.

Maternal Smoking in Pregnancy and Offspring Depression:: a cross cohort and negative control study

Previous reports suggest that offspring of mothers who smoke during pregnancy have greater risk of developing depression. However, it is unclear whether this is due to intrauterine effects. Using data from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC) from the UK (N = 2,869), the Nord-Trøndelag health study (HUNT) from Norway (N = 15,493), the Pelotas 1982 Birth Cohort Study from Brazil (N = 2,626), and the Swedish Sibling Health Cohort (N = 258 sibling pairs), we compared associations of maternal smoking during pregnancy and mother’s partner’s smoking during pregnancy with offspring depression and performed a discordant sibling analysis. In meta-analysis, maternal smoking during pregnancy was associated with higher odds of offspring depression (OR 1.20, 95% CI:1.08,1.34), but mother’s partner’s smoking during pregnancy was not (OR 1.05, 95% CI:0.94,1.17). However, there was only weak statistical evidence that the odds ratios for maternal and mother’s partner’s smoking differed from each other (p = 0.08). There was no clear evidence for an association between maternal smoking during pregnancy and offspring depression in the sibling analysis. Findings do not provide strong support for a causal role of maternal smoking during pregnancy in offspring depression, rather observed associations may reflect residual confounding relating to characteristics of parents who smoke.

Blood pressure and mortality: using offspring blood pressure as an instrument for own blood pressure in the HUNT study

Given that observational associations may be inaccurate, we used offspring blood pressure (BP) to provide alternative estimates of the associations between own BP and mortality. Observational associations between BP and mortality, estimated as hazard ratios (HRs) from Cox regression, were compared to HRs obtained using offspring BP as an instrumental variable (IV) for own BP (N = 32,227 mother-offspring and 27,535 father-offspring pairs). Observationally, there were positive associations between own BP and mortality from all-causes, cardiovascular disease (CVD), coronary heart disease (CHD), stroke and diabetes. Point estimates of the associations between BP and mortality from all-causes, CVD and CHD were amplified in magnitude when using offspring BP as an IV. For example, the HR for all-cause mortality per standard deviation (SD) increase in own systolic BP (SBP) obtained in conventional observational analyses increased from 1.10 (95% CI: 1.09–1.12; P < 0.0001) to 1.31 (95% CI: 1.19–1.43; P < 0.0001). Additionally, SBP was positively associated with diabetes and cancer mortality (HRs: 2.00; 95% CI: 1.12–3.35; P = 0.02 and 1.20; 95% CI: 1.02–1.42; P = 0.03, respectively), and diastolic BP (DBP) with stroke mortality (HR: 1.30; 95% CI: 1.02–1.66; P = 0.03). Results support positive associations between BP and mortality from all-causes, CVD, and CHD, SBP on cancer mortality, and DBP on stroke mortality.