David Dempsey

Hydraulic fracturing fluid migration in the subsurface: A review and expanded modeling results

Understanding the transport of hydraulic fracturing (HF) fluid that is injected into the deep subsurface for shale gas extraction is important to ensure that shallow drinking water aquifers are not contaminated. Topographically driven flow, overpressured shale reservoirs, permeable pathways such as faults or leaky wellbores, the increased formation pressure due to HF fluid injection, and the density contrast of the HF fluid to the surrounding brine can encourage upward HF fluid migration. In contrast, the very low shale permeability and capillary imbibition of water into partially saturated shale may sequester much of the HF fluid, and well production will remove HF fluid from the subsurface. We review the literature on important aspects of HF fluid migration. Single-phase flow and transport simulations are performed to quantify how much HF fluid is removed via the wellbore with flowback and produced water, how much reaches overlying aquifers, and how much is permanently sequestered by capillary imbibition, which is treated as a sink term based on a semianalytical, one-dimensional solution for two-phase flow. These simulations include all of the important aspects of HF fluid migration identified in the literature review and are performed in five stages to faithfully represent the typical operation of a hydraulically fractured well. No fracturing fluid reaches the aquifer without a permeable pathway. In the presence of a permeable pathway, 10 times more fracturing fluid reaches the aquifer if well production and capillary imbibition are not included in the model.

Energetics of normal earthquakes on dip-slip faults

That earthquakes release vast quantities of energy is widely accepted; however, the most commonly experienced component, radiated seismic energy, is a minor contribution to the total energy budget. The elastic rebound model for earthquakes recognizes that elastic strain energy does work displacing, deforming, and accelerating the crust, as well as causing frictional heating. In this paper we present an energy budget for dip-slip fault rupture in an extensional tectonic regime. A computational model of an elastic-plastic-viscous crust hosting a single fault, modeled as two surfaces in frictional contact, demonstrates contrasting energy flows between the hanging-wall and footwall fault blocks. Our analysis suggests that in the period leading up to an earthquake, the total strain energy contained within the crust decreases, although a local increase within the footwall at mid-crustal depths is observed. During an earthquake, the footwall is subject to an elastic rebound, whereupon uplift of the fault scarp is caused by a mid-crustal stress drop and elastic expansion that releases strain energy. In contrast, gravitational potential energy released from a subsiding hanging wall does work compressing the wider crust, particularly in the mid-crust at the fault tip. This has the unusual consequence of increasing strain energy throughout much of the upper crust during an earthquake. These counterintuitive energy flows suggest that extensional deformation is caused by stored gravitational potential and elastic strain energy, and not by the external tectonic forcing.

Collective properties of injection‐induced earthquake sequences: 1. Model description and directivity bias

Induced seismicity is of increasing concern for oil and gas, geothermal, and carbon sequestration operations, with several M > 5 events triggered in recent years. Modeling plays an important role in understanding the causes of this seismicity and in constraining seismic hazard. Here we study the collective properties of induced earthquake sequences and the physics underpinning them. In this first paper of a two-part series, we focus on the directivity ratio, which quantifies whether fault rupture is dominated by one (unilateral) or two (bilateral) propagating fronts. In a second paper, we focus on the spatiotemporal and magnitude-frequency distributions of induced seismicity. We develop a model that couples a fracture mechanics description of 1-D fault rupture with fractal stress heterogeneity and the evolving pore pressure distribution around an injection well that triggers earthquakes. The extent of fault rupture is calculated from the equations of motion for two tips of an expanding crack centered at the earthquake hypocenter. Under tectonic loading conditions, our model exhibits a preference for unilateral rupture and a normal distribution of hypocenter locations, two features that are consistent with seismological observations. On the other hand, catalogs of induced events when injection occurs directly onto a fault exhibit a bias toward ruptures that propagate toward the injection well. This bias is due to relatively favorable conditions for rupture that exist within the high-pressure plume. The strength of the directivity bias depends on a number of factors including the style of pressure buildup, the proximity of the fault to failure and event magnitude. For injection off a fault that triggers earthquakes, the modeled directivity bias is small and may be too weak for practical detection. For two hypothetical injection scenarios, we estimate the number of earthquake observations required to detect directivity bias.

Collective properties of injection‐induced earthquake sequences: 2. Spatiotemporal evolution and magnitude frequency distributions

Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for induced seismicity depends on reliable estimates of the locations, rate, and magnitude frequency properties of earthquake sequences. The purpose of this paper is to investigate how variations in these properties emerge from interactions between an evolving fluid pressure distribution and the mechanics of rupture on heterogeneous faults. We use an earthquake sequence model, developed in the first part of this two-part series, that computes pore pressure evolution, hypocenter locations, and rupture lengths for earthquakes triggered on 1-D faults with spatially correlated shear stress. We first consider characteristic features that emerge from a range of generic injection scenarios and then focus on the 2010–2011 sequence of earthquakes linked to wastewater disposal into two wells near the towns of Guy and Greenbrier, Arkansas. Simulations indicate that one reason for an increase of the Gutenberg-Richter b value for induced earthquakes is the different rates of reduction of static and residual strength as fluid pressure rises. This promotes fault rupture at lower stress than equivalent tectonic events. Further, b value is shown to decrease with time (the induced seismicity analog of b value reduction toward the end of the seismic cycle) and to be higher on faults with lower initial shear stress. This suggests that faults in the same stress field that have different orientations, and therefore different levels of resolved shear stress, should exhibit seismicity with different b-values. A deficit of large-magnitude events is noted when injection occurs directly onto a fault and this is shown to depend on the geometry of the pressure plume. Finally, we develop models of the Guy-Greenbrier sequence that captures approximately the onset, rise and fall, and southwest migration of seismicity on the Guy-Greenbrier fault. Constrained by the migration rate, we estimate the permeability of a 10 m thick critically stressed basement fault to be 5 × 10−12 m2. We also consider alternative scenarios in which only one of the two disposal wells operated and suggest that, due to the wells interacting, total seismicity may be greater than that attributable to each well alone.

Physics‐based forecasting of induced seismicity at Groningen gas field, the Netherlands

Earthquakes induced by natural gas extraction from the Groningen reservoir, the Netherlands, put local communities at risk. Responsible operation of a reservoir whose gas reserves are of strategic importance to the country requires understanding of the link between extraction and earthquakes. We synthesize observations and a model for Groningen seismicity to produce forecasts for felt seismicity (M > 2.5) in the period February 2017 to 2024. Our model accounts for poroelastic earthquake triggering and rupture on the 325 largest reservoir faults, using an ensemble approach to model unknown heterogeneity and replicate earthquake statistics. We calculate probability distributions for key model parameters using a Bayesian method that incorporates the earthquake observations with a nonhomogeneous Poisson process. Our analysis indicates that the Groningen reservoir was not critically stressed prior to the start of production. Epistemic uncertainty and aleatoric uncertainty are incorporated into forecasts for three different future extraction scenarios. The largest expected earthquake was similar for all scenarios, with a 5% likelihood of exceeding M 4.0.