David Domeij

Population Aging and International Capital Flows

We use the neoclassical growth framework to model international capital flows in a world with exogenous demographic change. We compare model implications and actual current account data and find that the model explains a small but significant fraction of capital flows between OECD countries, in particular after 1985.

Consumption and Health

Many studies show that individuals do not perfectly smooth consumption at older ages. We argue that an important explanation is that health status declines with age, making consumption at older ages less desirable. We incorporate health status into a standard incomplete markets life-cycle model, by allowing the marginal utility of consumption to increase with health status. Life-cycle income, mortality risk and health status are exogenous in the model and calibrated on Swedish data. Life-cycle consumption is endogenous and matches well Swedish Consumer Expenditure Survey data; consumption expenditure increase with age until about 60 years, and then falls with about 25% to 80 years. An alternative model with mortality risk, but without health status, fails in capturing the fall in consumption with age seen in the data.

PREANNOUNCED OPTIMAL TAX REFORM

In constitutional democracies, laws take time to be deliberated upon, to be passed, and to be implemented. Motivated by this observation, we study the properties of optimal tax reform when it has to be announced in advance of its implementation. We find that a delay between announcement and implementation has large effects on the optimal fiscal policy during the transition to the new steady state. On the other hand, we find that the welfare gains from optimal tax reform are fairly robust to the introduction of an implementation lag. Increasing the lag from zero to four years reduces the welfare gains by less than a quarter. Moreover, it turns out that this reduction of the welfare gain is mainly due to the delay itself rather than the effect of preannouncement on the character of the optimal tax reform.

Rising Earnings Inequality in Sweden: The Role of Composition and Prices

This paper decomposes the rise in cross-sectional earnings inequality in Sweden between 1990 and 2002 into changes in market prices of observable characteristics, changes in the composition of the labor force across demographic groups and industries, and changes in unobservables, and compares the Swedish experience with that in the U.S. The rise in earnings inequality is in both countries a consequence of rising upper tail dispersion. Contrary to the U.S. experience, where the rise is largely driven by changing market prices of observables and increased residual dispersion, shifts in the Swedish labor force composition have contributed positively to the rise in the P90-P50 gap. The rise in the Swedish P99-P90 gap is however entirely accounted for by changes in prices and residual dispersion.

Public Sector Employment and the Skill Premium: Sweden versus the United States, 1970-2012

Swedish census data and tax records reveal an astonishing decline in the aggregate skill premium of 30 percent between 1970 and 1990, with only a modest recovery in the next couple of decades. In contrast, the US skill premium rose by around 24 percent over those four decades. A theory that equalizes wages with marginal products can rationalize these disparate outcomes when we replace commonly used measures of total labor supplies by private sector employment. The dramatic decline in the skill premium in Sweden is the result of an expanding public sector that has disproportionately hired unskilled labor.