David Duffy

Are Ireland's Immigrants Integrating into Its Labor Market?

Ireland has experienced a remarkable change in its migratory patterns in recent years and has moved from experiencing large-scale emigration to receiving significant inflows. In this paper, we use data from a nationally representative sample of immigrants and natives drawn in 2005 to assess the occupational attainment of immigrants in Ireland relative to natives. It is found that immigrants, on average, are less likely to be in high-level occupations controlling for factors such as age and education. When looked at by year of arrival, it appears as if immigrants who arrived more recently have lower occupational attainment relative to earlier arrivals, thereby suggesting a process of integration. However, a closer analysis shows that the observation of better occupational attainment for earlier arrivals can be explained by a change in the national origin mix of Irelands immigrants, with immigrants from the New Member States of the European Union having the lowest occupational attainment. Within national groups there is generally no clear evidence of improved occupational attainment over time.

Negative Equity in Ireland: Estimates using Loan Level Data

Purpose – This paper aims to, using a unique loan-level data set, show the extent to which negative equity in Ireland is concentrated in younger age groups. The sharp decline in house prices since 2007 has led to the emergence of widespread negative equity in Ireland. However, little is known about the type of borrower experiencing negative equity. Design/methodology/approach – This paper uses a unique data set that, for a large sample of mortgages, provides details on both the characteristics of the borrowers and their mortgages. Using this data set, the paper estimates the incidence of negative equity by analysing loans taken out to purchase a primary residence in the period 2005-2012. Findings – The analysis finds the situation in Ireland to be much more severe than that being experienced in other housing market downturns at present, with 64 per cent of borrowers in the period 2005-2012 experiencing negative equity. Analysis by age gives rise to concern, with the majority of those in negative equity ag...

Macroprudential policy in a recovering property market: too much too soon?

The aftermath of the 2007/2008 financial crisis has resulted in many central banks and regulatory authorities examining the effectiveness of macroprudential policy in preventing the emergence of future credit bubbles. Specific limits on loan-to-value (LTV) and loan-to-income (LTI) ratios have been introduced in a number of economies as a means of ensuring greater financial stability. The Irish property and credit market were particularly affected in the crisis as the domestic housing market had, since 1995, experienced sustained price and housing supply increases. Much of the activity in the Irish market was fuelled by a credit bubble following the emergence of international wholesale funding post 2003. After a period of pronounced declines, Irish house prices in late 2013 started to increase significantly; in early 2015, in response, the Irish Central Bank imposed new LTV and LTI limits to curb house price inflation. However, the introduction of these measures comes at a time when housing supply and mortgage lending are still at historically low levels. Therefore, in this paper we use a newly developed structural model of the Irish property and credit market to examine the implications of these measures for house prices and key activity variables in the mortgage market.

Landlord attitudes to the private rented sector in Ireland: survey results

Abstract The private rented sector (PRS) in Ireland has grown rapidly over the past decade. A significant element of this growth occurred post-2006 and may be attributed to issues associated with the housing boom and bust. As economic recovery gets underway, severe supply constraints have emerged, putting pressure on the PRS. This paper presents findings of a national survey of landlords undertaken at this time, the first of its kind in Ireland. Despite the current difficulties being experienced in the Irish rental market over 60 per cent of landlords intend to remain in the sector. The survey points to policy changes that could help provide a more stable rental market, for example, the provision of unfurnished accommodation and longer leases. With approximately one-third of landlords expressing the intention to leave, maintaining supply remains a key challenge for the sector.

Dublin House Prices: A History of Booms and Busts from 1708-1949

This paper presents an annual property price index for Dublin over the period 1708-1949. Obtaining the data for a historical index and presenting it was the objective of this research. It was done in the belief that any better insight into property prices via a long range price index would help in delivering more accurate historical facts as they relate to housing. Data for the index was researched from examination of actual property transactions recorded in the Registry of deeds. The index is constructed using the Hedonic method and is estimated in real and nominal terms.