David E. Hojman

Economic and other determinants of infant and child mortality in small developing countries: the case of Central America and the Caribbean

This analysis involves empirically testing a theoretical model among 22 Central American and Caribbean countries during the 1990s that explains differences in infant and child mortality. Explanatory measures capture demographic, economic, health care, and educational characteristics. The model is expected to allow for an assessment of the potential impact of structural adjustment and external debt. It is pointed out that birth rates and child mortality rates followed similar patterns over time and between countries. In this studys regression analyses all variables in the three models that explain infant mortality are exogenous: low birth weight, immunization, gross domestic product per capita, years of schooling for women, population/nurse, and debt as a proportion of gross national product. As nations became richer, infant mortality declined. Infant mortality was lower in countries with high external debt. In models for explaining the birth rate and the child mortality rate, the best fit included variables for debt, real public expenditure on health care, water supply, and malnutrition. Analysis in a simultaneous model for 10 countries revealed that the birth rate and the child mortality rate were more responsive to shocks in exogenous variables in Barbados than in the Dominican Republic, and more responsive in the Dominican Republic than in Guatemala. The impact of each exogenous variable varied by country. In Barbados education was four times more effective in explaining the birth rate than water. In Guatemala, the most effective exogenous variable was malnutrition. Child mortality rates were affected more by multiplier effects. In richer countries, the most important impact on child survival was improved access to safe water, and the most important impact on the birth rate was increased real public expenditure on education per capita. For the poorest countries, findings suggest first improvement in malnutrition and then improvement in safe water supplies. Structural adjustment variables were found to have small impacts on the birth rate or limited impacts on child survival in poorer countries.

Poverty and Inequality in Chile: Are Democratic Politics and Neoliberal Economics Good for You?

his article examines whether the free-market, open-economy model adopted by Chiles civilian, democratically elected administrations of Patricio Aylwin (after March 1990) and Eduardo Frei (after March 1994) has affected the countrys distribution of income and degree of poverty and, if so, how. The free-market model was inherited from the military regime headed by General Pinochet (1973-1990) and adopted by his civilian successors almost without modification despite the fact that the post-1990 administrations were explicitly committed to making alleviation of poverty and reduction of inequalities in income a top priority. The article examines the extent to which the determinants of poverty and inequality have changed (if, indeed, they have changed at all) since the end of the military regime in 1990 and if so, why.

Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rates under Contractionary Devaluation: A Peruvian Model

Some structuralists argue that devaluations are contractionary, and that exports and imports are inelastic to exchange rate movements. A simultaneous model of exports, imports, capital flows and output is used to show that in Peru only the first proposition is correct. Consequently, external equilibrium and fast growth are incompatible. Introducing Williamson′s FEER suggests that there are wild fluctuations of actual rates around FEER, and a long‐term tendency of the latter to increase. Prudent policies should seek short‐run stability and a lower FEER in the long term; it is not devaluations but their contractionary effect which should be avoided.

Explaining Crime in Buenos Aires: The Roles of Inequality, Unemployment, and Structural Change

Theoretical and empirical ambiguities suggest that it may be wrong to claim that unemployment increases crime, always and everywhere. Multiple regression results for Greater Buenos Aires during 1985–1997 show that inequality helps to explain crime, but unemployment does not. Moreover, unemployment fails to explain inequality. The discussion also raises some governability issues.

An empirical analysis of productivity: Welsh coal industry

Abstract A non-homogeneous variable-elasticity-of-substitution production function is estimated using data for the Welsh coal industry. From 1961 to 1976 output declined, returns to scale increased and the elasticity of substitution fell. At the end of the period, the elasticity of substitution between capital and labour in the coal industry is still large and there may be room for greater employment in the industry at a time of high and rising unemployment, subject to other overall considerations. While marginal productivity of labour in physical terms has been stagnant, price rises in the industry in recent years have been in excess of what was needed to finance wage settlements. Perhaps price rises granted to the coal industry by the UK government were justified, but they require closer scrutiny.

Land reform female migration and the market for domestic service in Chile.

This paper uses a 1986 survey on women in domestic service in Santiago Chile to answer questions o the effects on domestic service of changes in land tenure as in the countryside in the 1960s and 1970s as well as more recent economic fluctuations. Female migration to Santiago and the market for domestic service there were dramatically affected by the land tenure changes in the 1970s and by macroeconomic fluctuations in the 1970s and 1980s. Allendes land reform kept women in their regions of origin whereas Pinochets agrarian policies pushed them out. However the emergence of new villages or rural shanty towns and massive female employment in fruit harvesting and packing prevented female migration from swamping the market for domestic service in Santiago. Demand for domestic service is highly responsive to the level of aggregate economic activity but supply is not (actually supply may respond negatively to activity) which provokes sharp fluctuations in the market wage. This wage volatility possibly encourages informal agreements between employer and employee in individual cases in order to achieve some long-term wage stability by dampening the wildest market swings. Imports of labor-saving consumer durables increased and their relative price fell but their impact on the demand for domestic service is ambiguous: for upper-middle and upper-class Chileans (the top quintile) consumer durables and domestic service may be complements rather than substitutes. The relationship between regional unemployment rates and inter-regional migration flows is quite complex. Increasingly migration towards domestic service in Santiago tends to rely on reserves of unskilled labor from regions further and further south as labor reserves in central Chile become exhausted. Intermediate and reverse migration are almost non-existent. Evidence of stepping downwards in terms of social mobility as a result of migration is more evident in this sample than in others. Curiosity the wish to get to know Santiago boredom and to search for independence are significant in this sample. Average educational levels of domestic servants in the 1980s are considerably higher in the 1980s than in the 1960s.

Change in the Chilean Countryside: From Pinochet to Aylwin and beyond

Neo-liberal agriculture and democratization, Maria Elena Cruz the agrarian policy of the Aylwin government - continuity or change?, Cristobal Kay agriculture and forestry - reflections on liberal policies, Shanti P. Chakravarty landowners and the State - beyond agrarian reform and counter-reform, Patricio Silva the sugar beet industry - a model for agricultural self-sufficiency in a developing country?, Robert N. Gwynne and Anna Bee non-traditional agricultural and agro-industrial exports and technological change - a microeconomic approach, Carlo Pietrobelli rural credit, agricultural extension and poverty alleviation - past experience and future prospects, Christopher D. Scott agricultural policies, technological gap and peasant farming - from Pinochet to Aylwin, Guy Durand non-governmental development programmes for the peasant sector - a critical review, Julio A. Berdague self-help organizations and non-governmental programmes of rural development - conclusions, David E. Hojman.

Social Policy in a Fast‐growing Economy: The Case of Chile

Chile has adopted a package of free-market, neo-liberal social policies. This follows a pattern established by the country’s largely successful economic policies. Neo-liberal social policy consists of a series of two-tier systems, which are not in contradiction with the economic model. On the contrary, a key function of the social policies is to supplement a dynamic style of capitalist economic development through a number of mechanisms. These include: improving the skills, education and health standards of the labour force; increasing savings in a privately-run pension system; reducing labour costs to firms; and providing a safety net to those whom the “trickle down” does not reach. The paper examines social policy in three sectors: pensions, health and education. It explores historical roots, present characteristics, and the degree of success or othewise of policy in these sectors. The discussion refers to the role played by the legacy of the Pinochet military dictatorship (1973–90), the interface between public and private spheres, the whole question of social policy in the context of fast economic growth under free-market conditions (and the possible presence of causality links), the changing balance of power between suppliers and users of social sector services in favour of the latter, the threat of market failure, and questions such as whether these policies have been successful and whether (or why) Chileans are prepared to accept this unequal two-tier system.

Latin American Inflation: Theoretical Interpretations and Empirical Results

Preface Inflation in Latin America: A Monetarist View An Alternative View: The Structuralist Argument Revisited Inflation in a Small Country: A Case Study of Bolivia A Summing Up Appendix: Statistical Aspects of Inflation Rates Bibliography Index

An econometric model of the international bauxite-aluminium economy

Abstract This simultaneous equation model emphasizes oligopolistic and vertical integration features, and conflict between companies and some bauxite producer country governments. Estimates do not support Koyck lags, or big gaps between long- and short-term elasticities. Strongest influence is industrial activity in advanced countries. Price and substitution elasticities are low. With an 11 year horizon, cartelization gains are high. In the longer term, Australias participation in, or exclusion from the cartel, and cartelization gains, are strictly interdependent, and dependent on Australia following policies as a bauxite producer, or, more realistically, as an aluminum producer (which makes cartel perspectives poor).