David E. Kalist

Registered Nurses and the Value of Bilingualism

Recent research indicates that markets do not value bilingual skills. These results, however, are not robust across all labor markets, and one notable counter-instance is the market for registered nurses. As the Hispanic population grows in the United States, health care providers will encounter increasing numbers of patients who are not fluent in English. To better serve their patients, meet government requirements, and limit legal liability, employers may offer wage premiums to attract bilingual (Spanish/English) registered nurses. Support for this hypothesis comes from wage regressions on data for the year 2000 from the National Sample Survey of Registered Nurses. The estimates indicate that bilingual registered nurses received wage premiums of up to 7%, depending on the fraction of the population that spoke Spanish in the RNs county of employment.

Does Education Matter? Major League Baseball Players and Longevity

The authors used duration analysis to examine the longevity of Major League Baseball players. Using data on players who were born between 1945 and 1964, the authors found that the hazard rate of death for players who only attended high school was almost 2.0 times higher than those players who attended a 4-year university, evidence that the educaton–health link applies to professional athletes. Another important determinant of longevity was race. In addition, a players body mass index was positively associated with a higher hazard of death. Compared with the general population, the death rate of baseball players was lower—the observed number of deaths in the dataset was only 31% of the expected number. Findings in this article are likely attributable to education being correlated with other variables that affect longevity, most likely intelligence and time preference.

The association of obesity with the likelihood of arrest for young adults

This paper examines whether obesity is associated with the likelihood of arrest. We hypothesize that obese individuals are less likely to commit crime and be arrested because their body weights may prevent them from successfully engaging in certain criminal activities, particularly those that are physically intensive. To test this hypothesis, we use the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997 and panel data techniques and find that obesity is negatively related to arrest. In one specification, for example, we found that the odds of an obese man being arrested are 64% of those of a healthy weight man. The social costs of obesity may be overstated if obesity reduces the likelihood of arrest because the obese are less criminally active.

The National Football League

This article investigates the effects of National Football League (NFL) games on crime. Using a panel data set that includes daily crime incidences in eight large cities with NFL teams, we examine how various measurements of criminal activities change on game day compared with nongame days. Our findings from both ordinary least squares and negative binomial regressions indicate that NFL home games are associated with a 2.6% increase in total crimes, while financially motivated crimes such as larceny and motor vehicle theft increase by 4.1% and 6.7%, respectively, on game days. However, we observe that play-off games are associated with a decrease in financially motivated crimes. The effects of game time (afternoon vs. evening) and upset wins and losses on crime are also considered.

Predicting recidivism of juvenile offenders

Abstract This study uses a large data set to analyze and predict recidivism of juvenile offenders in Pennsylvania. We employ a split-population duration model to determine the effect of covariates on (1) the probability of failure, defined as a second referral to juvenile court, and (2) the time to failure, given that it occurs. A test of the predictive power of our estimates finds a false positive rate of 18.5% and a false negative rate of 20.7%, which compares favorably to the performance of other models in the literature.

Is the Marginal Child More Likely to be Murdered?: An Examination of State Abortion Ratios and Infant Homicide

We examine whether abortion removes from the population those infants most at risk of homicide. As part of our identification strategy, we find that abortion reduces the number of unwanted births, estimating that 1 percent increase in the abortion ratio reduces unwanted births by approximately 0.35 percent. Using cross-sectional time-series data for U.S. states between 1970 and 1998, we find that an increase in the abortion ratio (a proxy for unwanted births) reduces the expected number of infant homicides, especially among black infants. Overall, the elasticity of infant homicides with respect to unwanted births is approximately 0.089.

Abortion and Infant Homicide

Recent research indicates that the United States Supreme Court ruling in Roe v. Wade was a major contributing factor to the significant drop in crime during the 1990s. This paper extends that research by examining the contemporaneous relationship between abortion and infant homicide. We test the hypothesis that abortion removes out of the population those infants most at risk of infant homicide. Within this context, the impact of Medicaid funding for abortions on infant homicides is analyzed. Using cross-sectional time-series data for U.S. states between 1978 and 2000, we find a strong negative relationship between infant homicide and the abortion rate: a one standard deviation increase in the abortion rate reduces the expected number of infant homicides by approximately 40 percent. Medicaid funding of abortion reduces the number of infant homicides; the data suggest that infant homicides are between 13 and 20 percent lower in states that fund abortion.

AIDS AND THE MARKET FOR NURSES

This paper analyzes the market for registered nurses in the U.S. during the period from 1978 to 1995, but is specifically concerned with how the prospect of treating patients with HIV or AIDS may have affected the supply of entrants into nursing. Using cross-sectional time-series data, we find that concern about the risk of contracting AIDS reduced admissions to nursing schools by as much as 15%. In states with a higher incidence of AIDS, such as New York, we find a much larger effect. Since the deterrent effect of AIDS was not limited to those considering whether to enter nursing school, our estimates represent a lower bound on the reduction in supply. However, we also find that the deterrent effect declined over time, as it became clear that the disease could not be transmitted by casual contact. Our findings suggest that substantial welfare costs are imposed by regulations that require all nurses to treat patients with HIV or AIDS.