David Etkin

Climate Change: Perceptions and Discourses of Risk

This paper discusses some of the issues that affect risk awareness with respect to climate change and what their impact has been on peoples attitudes. It highlights the large gap between the scientific community and the general public in terms of their understanding, awareness and perception of risks associated with climate change. Awareness is driven both by environmental values or political and economic agendas; particularly important are worldviews and ‘myths of nature’, which have a great impact on risk perception. Attitudes are further complicated because the problem of climate change comprises a form of ‘post‐normal science’: it needs to be viewed holistically, with consideration of the feedbacks between the climate system, the human system and ecosystems; there is large uncertainty and a plurality of legitimate perspectives; and the issue is complex and difficult or impossible to fit into a traditional linear problem‐solving model. It is therefore not a rational decision for most individuals to take actions to reduce risk from climate change in the absence of collective action, yet collective action is extraordinarily difficult to achieve. The benefits of risk reduction also fall primarily upon future generations, while uncertainties mean that differences in perspective, and problems of poor communication, misinformation and unstated assumptions tend to cloud the social discourse.

Climate Variability and the Frequency of Extreme Temperature Events for Nine Sites across Canada: Implications for Power Usage

To study the impact of incremental climatic warming on summer extreme temperature event frequency, the historical record of daily maximum June, July, and August temperatures was analyzed for nine sites across Canada. It was found that all of these sites are well modeled by a first-order autoregressive process using three parameters: the mean, variance, and first-order autocorrelation coefficient. For slight changes in the mean or variance there are increases in the frequency of both single days and runs of 2‐5 consecutive days with daily maximum temperatures over a threshold value. For example, for a 38C increase in the mean daily maximum temperature at Toronto, the frequency of a 5-day consecutive run over 308C rose by over a factor of 8 to 7.1%. Sites with less variability are more sensitive to an increase in the mean summer temperature than sites with higher variability. Analysis of simulated series indicates that when two parameter values change simultaneously the change in the frequency of a given event is usually greater than the sum of the individual changes. Output from the Canadian Climate Centre GCMII model for the nine sites for both the current and 2 3 CO2 atmosphere indicate an average increase in the daily maximum temperature of 4.28C. Changes in the standard deviation and autocorrelation were usually less pronounced. For Toronto, a positive correlation (R2 5 0.718) between daily peak power demand and the cube of the current and previous 2 days daily maximum temperature was found. A sensitivity analysis was performed on daily peak power demand by first generating temperature time series and then using the derived regression relationship. Results follow a predictable pattern and indicate that the standard deviation of the peak power series increases proportionally more than the mean for increases in the mean daily maximum temperature. For example, for a 38C increase in mean daily maximum temperature, the increase in mean peak power demand was 7% (1200 MW) while the increase in the standard deviation of peak power demand was 22%. Changes in the autocorrelation of the temperature time series do not lead to significant changes in the mean or standard deviation of daily peak power demand. These results indicate that, while the average peak power demand is not moved drastically, the number of high energy consumption days may increase appreciably due to higher variability, placing stress on the provincial power utility to meet this higher demand.

Risk transference and related trends: driving forces towards more mega-disasters

Abstract In recent decades, the global cost of natural disasters has increased substantially. There are several trends in society and nature that suggest this pattern may continue, with more frequent mega-disasters occurring in the future. In particular, risk perception that is at odds with the “real” risk underlies the process of risk transference which encourages development that increases long-term vulnerability.

Climate Change, Extreme Events and the Canadian Insurance Industry

At the same time that a scientific consensus has arisen that the world will most likely experience a changing climate in the near future, with more frequent extreme events of some weather hazards, the insurance industry, worldwide, has been hit with rapidly escalating costs from weather-related disasters. This conjunction of scientific belief and economic impact has raised the questions as to (1) whether more frequent extreme events have contributed to the rising insurance costs and (2) how will future climate change affect the industry?

Beyond the year 2000, more tornadoes in western Canada? Implications from the historical record

A comparison of tornado frequency in western Canada before and after 1980 suggests that tornado frequency increases (decreases) with positive (negative) mean monthly temperature anomalies. If climate warming occurs due to increasing greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, the inference that more tornadoes will occur seems reasonable.

A note on Canada's hail climatology: 1977–1993

The last national hail climatology of Canada was based upon the 1951–1980 time period. However, from 1977 to 1993, many more stations reported days with hail than prior to 1977. As a result, a more spatially detailed analysis is now possible. Unfortunately, after 1993 the observing network began to be replaced by automatic stations that do not report hail, and therefore a mesoscale analysis can only effectively use the time period of 1977–1993. Due to the fact that ice pellets have often been recorded as hail, this analysis restricted itself to the warm months of May–September. The current national hail climatology is broadly similar to the previous one (with a few notable differences) but is much richer in spatial detail. The highest hail frequencies occur in interior British Columbia and Alberta. Topography appears to be a significant control on patterns of hail occurrence. Copyright

Climate warming and natural disaster management: An exploration of the issues

This paper explores two issues that have been receiving increasing attention in recent decades, climate change adaptation and natural disaster risk reduction. An examination of the similarities and differences between them reveals important linkages but also significant differences, including the spectrum of threats, time and spatial scales, the importance of local versus global processes, how risks are perceived, and degree of uncertainty. Using a risk perspective to analyze these issues, preferential strategies emerge related to choices of being proactive, reactive, or emphasizing risk management as opposed to the precautionary principle. The policy implications of this analysis are then explored, using Canada as a case study.

Mitigating Natural Disasters: The Role Of Eco-Ethics

Natural disasters are complex phenomena, the causes of which lie to a large extent in human behavior that creates vulnerable communities. In order to reduce vulnerability and thereby mitigate the risk of disasters, it is important to consider underlying values, particularly with respect to how people view and interact with the natural world. Advancing an interdisciplinary, ecological paradigm, this paper argues that disaster mitigation needs to be addressed through a process that results in a greater emphasis on our interactions with and reliance upon the natural world, and the development of community resilience.

Emergency Managers in Ontario: An Exploratory Study of Their Perspectives

Creating effective disaster and emergency management programs can be an enormously challenging task because of the many difficulties and barriers that present themselves to people and institutions working in this field. The present study addresses two main concerns: (1) what barriers exist within Canadian society to effective disaster risk reduction from the perspective of the emergency management community and (2) what barriers exist within the Canadian emergency management community to effective disaster risk reduction, both from a cultural and institutional perspective? We conducted interviews with emergency management professionals from the public and private sectors as well as some NGOs in order to ascertain their opinions and perspectives with respect to these questions. The results have been analyzed and discussed in this paper.

Institutional perception and support in emergency management in Ontario, Canada

Purpose – The present study seeks to explore the minds and thoughts of emergency management professionals in Ontario in order to better understand the institution, and engage them in a renewed dialogue with communities, academia and other stakeholders. The intention is to strengthen the institution of emergency management, which is the foundation of disaster mitigation.Design/methodology/approach – The study is based on interviews conducted with emergency management professionals from the public, private and non‐governmental organization (NGO) sectors in the Province of Ontario, Canada. The questions were a combination of structured and open‐ended questions to elicit rich details on emergency management professionals’ views. Analysis of interview transcriptions highlighted the attitudes and perceptions of the interviewees with respect to themselves, their own organizations, their role in emergency management, and their jurisdictions. The study also provided an opportunity for respondents to provide exampl...