David F. Warner

Multimorbidity Redefined: Prospective Health Outcomes and the Cumulative Effect of Co-Occurring Conditions

Introduction Multimorbidity is common among middle-aged and older adults; however the prospective effects of multimorbidity on health outcomes (health status, major health decline, and mortality) have not been fully explored. This study addresses this gap in the literature. Methods We used self-reported data from the 2008 and 2010 Health and Retirement Study. Our study population included 13,232 adults aged 50 or older. Our measure of baseline multimorbidity in 2008 was based on the occurrence or co-occurrence of chronic conditions, functional limitations, and/or geriatric syndromes, as follows: MM0, no chronic conditions, functional limitations, or geriatric syndromes; MM1, occurrence (but no co-occurrence) of chronic conditions, functional limitations, or geriatric syndromes; MM2, co-occurrence of any 2 of chronic conditions, functional limitations, or geriatric syndromes; and MM3, co-occurrence of all 3 of chronic conditions, functional limitations, and geriatric syndromes. Outcomes in 2010 included fair or poor health status, major health decline, and mortality. Results All 3 outcomes were significantly associated with multimorbidity. Compared with MM0 (respectively for fair or poor health and major health decline), the adjusted odds ratios (AORs) and 95% confidence intervals were as follows: 2.61 (1.79–3.78) and 2.20 (1.42–3.41) for MM1; 7.49 (5.20–10.77) and 3.70 (2.40–5.71) for MM2; and 22.66 (15.64–32.83) and 4.72 (3.03–7.37) for MM3. Multimorbidity was also associated with mortality: an adult classified as MM3 was nearly 12 times (AOR, 11.87 [5.72–24.62]) as likely as an adult classified as MM0 to die within 2 years. Conclusion Given the strong and significant association between multimorbidity and prospective health status, major health decline, and mortality, multimorbidity may be used — both in clinical practice and in research — to identify older adults with heightened vulnerability for adverse outcomes.

Widening the social context of disablement among married older adults: Considering the role of nonmarital relationships for loneliness

Utilizing the stress process and life course perspectives, we investigated the influence of non-spousal social support on the associations between marital quality, physical disability, and loneliness among married older adults. Using data from the National Social Life, Health, and Aging Project (NSHAP), we found that the association between physical disability and loneliness was partially accounted for by the fact that physical disability was associated with less supportive nonmarital relationships. While physically-disabled older adults in higher-quality marriages were buffered from loneliness, supportive non-martial relationships did not offset elevated loneliness among those in low-quality marriages. These associations were largely similar for men and women. Thus, although both marital and nonmarital relationships are important for loneliness, when confronted with a stressor such as disablement it is the marital relationship alone that matters.

Identifying Specific Combinations of Multimorbidity that Contribute to Health Care Resource Utilization: An Analytic Approach

Background: Multimorbidity affects the majority of elderly adults and is associated with higher health costs and utilization, but how specific patterns of morbidity influence resource use is less understood. Objective: The objective was to identify specific combinations of chronic conditions, functional limitations, and geriatric syndromes associated with direct medical costs and inpatient utilization. Design: Retrospective cohort study using the Health and Retirement Study (2008–2010) linked to Medicare claims. Analysis used machine-learning techniques: classification and regression trees and random forest. Subjects: A population-based sample of 5771 Medicare-enrolled adults aged 65 and older in the United States. Measures: Main covariates: self-reported chronic conditions (measured as none, mild, or severe), geriatric syndromes, and functional limitations. Secondary covariates: demographic, social, economic, behavioral, and health status measures. Outcomes: Medicare expenditures in the top quartile and inpatient utilization. Results: Median annual expenditures were

Social determinants, multimorbidity, and patterns of end-of-life care in older adults dying from cancer☆

4354, and 41% were hospitalized within 2 years. The tree model shows some notable combinations: 64% of those with self-rated poor health plus activities of daily living and instrumental activities of daily living disabilities had expenditures in the top quartile. Inpatient utilization was highest (70%) in those aged 77–83 with mild to severe heart disease plus mild to severe diabetes. Functional limitations were more important than many chronic diseases in explaining resource use. Conclusions: The multimorbid population is heterogeneous and there is considerable variation in how specific combinations of morbidity influence resource use. Modeling the conjoint effects of chronic conditions, functional limitations, and geriatric syndromes can advance understanding of groups at greatest risk and inform targeted tailored interventions aimed at cost containment.

Physical Disability and Increased Loneliness among Married Older Adults The Role of Changing Social Relations

OBJECTIVE Most prior studies on aggressive end-of-life care in older patients with cancer have accounted for social determinants of health (e.g., race, income, and education), but rarely for multimoribidity (MM). In this study, we examine the association between end-of-life care and each of the social determinants of health and MM, hypothesizing that higher MM is associated with less aggressive care. METHODS From the linked 1991-2008 Health and Retirement Study, Medicare data, and the National Death Index, we identified fee-for-service patients age ≥66years who died from cancer (n=835). MM was defined as the occurrence or co-occurrence of chronic conditions, functional limitations, and/or geriatric syndromes. Aggressive care was based on claims-derived measures of receipt of cancer-directed treatment in the last two weeks of life; admission to the hospital and/or emergency department (ED) within the last month; and in-hospital death. We also identified patients enrolled in hospice. In multivariable logistic regression models, we analyzed the associations of interest, adjusting for potential confounders. RESULTS While 61.2% of the patients enrolled in hospice, 24.6% underwent cancer-directed treatment; 55.1% were admitted to the hospital and/or ED; and 21.7% died in the hospital. We observed a U-shaped distribution between income and in-hospital death. Chronic conditions and geriatric syndromes were associated with some outcomes, but not with others. CONCLUSIONS To improve quality end-of-life care and curtail costs incurred by dying patients, relevant interventions need to account for social determinants of health and MM in a nuanced fashion.

Functional Status in Older Women Diagnosed with Pelvic Organ Prolapse

Examining the social context of disablement, we investigated how changes in social relations affect loneliness among married older men and women. With longitudinal data on 914 married persons from the National Social Life, Health, and Aging Project (NSHAP), we found that changes in the quality of marital and nonmarital relations moderate the effect of disability on loneliness in unexpected ways. Increases in negative marital quality buffer the effect of physical disability, while increases in nonmarital support exacerbate it. Although not predicted by existing theory, these findings are consistent with some prior work suggesting that health-related stressors, like physical disability, condition the meaning of changes in social relations. We find, however, that negative social relations ameliorate loneliness only among disabled married men; disabled married women experience increased loneliness under similar circumstances. These differences have not been previously identified. We conclude by discussing the gendered nature of the social context of disablement.

Multimorbidity: constellations of conditions across subgroups of midlife and older individuals, and related Medicare expenditures

BACKGROUND Functional status plays an important role in the comprehensive characterization of older adults. Functional limitations are associated with an increased risk of adverse treatment outcomes, but there are limited data on the prevalence of functional limitations in older women with pelvic floor disorders. OBJECTIVE The aim of the study was to describe the prevalence of functional limitations based on health status in older women with pelvic organ prolapse (POP). STUDY DESIGN This pooled, cross-sectional study utilized data from the linked Health and Retirement Study and Medicare files from 1992 through 2008. The analysis included 890 women age ≥65 years with POP. We assessed self-reported functional status, categorized in strength, upper and lower body mobility, activities of daily living (ADL), and instrumental ADL (IADL) domains. Functional limitations were evaluated and stratified by respondents self-reported general health status. Descriptive statistics were used to compare categorical and continuous variables, and logistic regression was used to measure differences in the odds of functional limitation by increasing age. RESULTS The prevalence of functional limitations was 76.2% in strength, 44.9% in upper and 65.8% in lower body mobility, 4.5% in ADL, and 13.6% in IADL. Limitations were more prevalent in women with poor or fair health status than in women with good health status, including 91.5% vs 69.9% in strength, 72.9% vs 33.5% in upper and 88.0% vs 56.8% in lower body mobility, 11.6% vs 0.9% in ADL, and 30.6% vs 6.7% in IADL; all P < .01. The odds of all functional limitations also increased significantly with advancing age. CONCLUSION Functional limitations, especially in strength and body mobility domains, are highly prevalent in older women with POP, particularly in those with poor or fair self-reported health status. Future research is necessary to evaluate if functional status affects clinical outcomes in pelvic reconstructive and gynecologic surgery and whether it should be routinely assessed in clinical decision-making when treating older women with POP.

Changes in Case-Mix and Health Outcomes of Medicare Fee-for-Service Beneficiaries and Managed Care Enrollees during the Years 1992-2011

Introduction: The Department of Health and Human Services’ 2010 Strategic Framework on Multiple Chronic Conditions called for the identification of common constellations of conditions in older adults. Objectives: To analyze patterns of conditions constituting multimorbidity (CCMM) and expenditures in a US representative sample of midlife and older adults (50–64 and ≥65 years of age, respectively). Design: A cross-sectional study of the 2010 Health and Retirement Study (HRS; n=17,912). The following measures were used: (1) count and combinations of CCMM, including (i) chronic conditions (hypertension, arthritis, heart disease, lung disease, stroke, diabetes, cancer, and psychiatric conditions), (ii) functional limitations (upper body limitations, lower body limitations, strength limitations, limitations in activities of daily living, and limitations in instrumental activities of daily living), and (iii) geriatric syndromes (cognitive impairment, depressive symptoms, incontinence, visual impairment, hearing impairment, severe pain, and dizziness); and (2) annualized 2011 Medicare expenditures for HRS participants who were Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries (n=5,677). Medicaid beneficiaries were also identified based on their self-reported insurance status. Results: No large representations of participants within specific CCMM categories were observed; however, functional limitations and geriatric syndromes were prominently present with higher CCMM counts. Among fee-for-service Medicare beneficiaries aged 50–64 years, 26.7% of the participants presented with ≥10 CCMM, but incurred 48% of the expenditure. In those aged ≥65 years, these percentages were 16.9% and 34.4%, respectively. Conclusion: Functional limitations and geriatric syndromes considerably add to the MM burden in midlife and older adults. This burden is much higher than previously reported.

Complex multimorbidity and health outcomes in older adult cancer survivors

Background: Recent studies suggest that managed care enrollees (MCEs) and fee-for-service beneficiaries (FFSBs) have become similar in case-mix over time; but comparisons of health outcomes have yielded mixed results. Objective: To examine changes in differentials between MCEs and FFSBs both in case-mix and health outcomes over time. Design: Temporal study of the linked Health and Retirement Study (HRS) and Medicare data, comparing case-mix and health outcomes between MCEs and FFSBs across 3 time periods: 1992–1998, 1999–2004, and 2005–2011. We used multivariable analysis, stratified by, and pooled across the study periods. The unit of analysis was the person-wave (n=167,204). Subjects: HRS participants who were also enrolled in Medicare. Measures: Outcome measures included self-reported fair/poor health, 2-year self-rated worse health, and 2-year mortality. Our main covariate was a composite measure of multimorbidity (MM), MM0–MM3, defined as the co-occurrence of chronic conditions, functional limitations, and/or geriatric syndromes. Results: The case-mix differential between MCEs and FFSBs persisted over time. Results from multivariable models on the pooled data and incorporating interaction terms between managed care status and study period indicated that MCEs and FFSBs were as likely to die within 2 years from the HRS interview (P=0.073). This likelihood remained unchanged across the study periods. However, MCEs were more likely than FFSBs to report fair/poor health in the third study period (change in probability for the interaction term: 0.024, P=0.008), but less likely to rate their health worse in the last 2 years, albeit at borderline significance (change in probability: −0.021, P=0.059). Conclusions: Despite the persistence of selection bias, the differential in self-reported fair/poor status between MCEs and FFSBs seems to be closing over time.

The Influence of Multimorbidity on Leading Causes of Death in Older Adults With Cognitive Impairment

Objective To characterize complex multimorbidity among cancer survivors and evaluate the association between cancer survivorship, time since cancer diagnosis, and self-reported fair/poor health, self-rated worse health in 2 years, and 2-year mortality. Methods We used the 2010–2012 Health and Retirement Study. Cancer survivors were individuals who reported a (nonskin) cancer diagnosis 2 years or more before the interview. We defined complex multimorbidity as the co-occurrence of chronic conditions, functional limitations, and/or geriatric syndromes. In addition to descriptive analyses, we used logistic regression to evaluate the independent association between cancer survivor status and health outcomes. We also examined whether cancer survivorship differed by the number of years since diagnosis. Results Among 15,808 older adults (age ≥50 years), 11.8% were cancer survivors. Compared with cancer-free individuals, a greater percentage of cancer survivors had complex multimorbidity: co-occurring chronic conditions, functional limitations, and geriatric syndromes. Cancer survivorship was significantly associated with self-reported fair/poor health, self-rated worse health in 2 years, and 2-year mortality. These effects declined with the number of years since diagnosis for fair/poor health and mortality but not for self-rated worse health. Conclusion Cancer survivor status is independently associated with more complex multimorbidity, and with worse health outcomes. These effects attenuate with time, except for patient perception of being in worse health.