David F. Webb

Solar and interplanetary sources of major geomagnetic storms (Dst ≤ −100 nT) during 1996–2005

[1] We present the results of an investigation of the sequence of events from the Sun to the Earth that ultimately led to the 88 major geomagnetic storms (defined by minimum Dst �� 100 nT) that occurred during 1996–2005. The results are achieved through cooperative efforts that originated at the Living with a Star (LWS) Coordinated DataAnalysis Workshop (CDAW) held at George Mason University in March 2005. On the basis of careful examination of the complete array of solar and in situ solar wind observations, we have identified and characterized, for each major geomagnetic storm, the overall solar-interplanetary (solar-IP) source type, the time, velocity, and angular width of the source coronal mass ejection (CME), the type and heliographic location of the solar source region, the structure of the transient solar wind flow with the storm-driving component specified, the arrival time of shock/disturbance, and the start and ending times of the corresponding IP CME (ICME). The storm-driving component, which possesses a prolonged and enhanced southward magnetic field (Bs), may be an ICME, the sheath of shocked plasma (SH) upstream of an ICME, a corotating interaction region (CIR), or a combination of these structures. We classify the Solar-IP sources into three broad types: (1) S-type, in which the storm is associated with a single ICME and a single CME at the Sun; (2) M-type, in which the storm is associated with a complex solar wind flow produced by multiple interacting ICMEs arising from multiple halo CMEs launched from the Sun in a short period; (3) C-type, in which the storm is associated with a CIR formed at the leading edge of a high-speed stream originating from a solar coronal hole (CH). For the 88 major storms, the S-type, M-type, and C-type events number 53 (60%), 24 (27%), and 11 (13%), respectively. For the 85 events for which the surface source regions could be investigated, 54 (63%) of the storms originated in solar active regions, 11 (13%) in quiet Sun regions associated with quiescent filaments or filament channels, and 11 (13%) were associated with coronal holes. Remarkably, nine (11%) CME-driven events showed no sign of eruptive features on the surface or in the low corona (e.g., no flare, no coronal dimming, and no loop arcade, etc.), even though all the available solar observations in a suitable time period were carefully examined. Thus while it is generally true that a major geomagnetic storm is more likely to be driven by a frontside fast halo CME associated with a major flare, our study indicates a broad distribution of source properties. The implications of the results for space weather forecasting are briefly discussed.

Properties of coronal mass ejections: SOHO LASCO observations from January 1996 to June 1998

We report the properties of all the 841 coronal mass ejections (CMEs) observed by the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) Large Angle Spectroscopic Coronagraph (LASCO) C2 and C3 white-light coronagraphs from January 1996 through June 1998, and we compare those properties to previous observations by other similar instruments. Both the CME rate and the distribution of apparent locations of CMEs varied during this period as expected based on previous solar cycles. The distribution of apparent speeds and the fraction of CMEs showing acceleration were also in agreement with earlier reports. The pointing stability provided by an L-1 orbit and the use of CCD detectors have resulted in superior brightness sensitivity for LASCO over earlier coronagraphs; however, we have not detected a significant population of fainter (i.e., low mass) CMEs. The general shape of the distribution of apparent sizes for LASCO CMEs is similar to those of earlier reports, but the average (median) apparent size of 72° (50°) is significantly larger. The larger average apparent size is predominantly the result of the detection of a population of partial and complete halo CMEs, at least some of which appear to be events with a significant longitudinal component directed along the Sun-Earth line, either toward or away from the Earth. Using full disk solar images obtained by the Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope (EIT) on SOHO, we found that 40 out of 92 of these events might have been directed toward the Earth, and we compared the timing of those with the Kp geomagnetic storm index in the days following the CME. Although the “false alarm” rate was high, we found that 15 out of 21 (71%) of the Kp ≥ 6 storms could be accounted for as SOHO LASCO/EIT frontside halo CMEs. If we eliminate three Kp storms that occurred following LASCO/EIT data gaps, then the possible association rate was 15 out of 18 (83%).

The solar cycle variation of coronal mass ejections and the solar wind mass flux

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are an important aspect of coronal physics and a potentially significant contributor to perturbations of the solar wind, such as its mass flux. Sufficient data on CMEs are now available to permit study of their longer-term occurrence patterns. Here we present the results of a study of CME occurrence rates over more than a complete 11-year solar sunspot cycle and a comparison of these rates with those of other activity related to CMEs and with the solar wind particle flux at 1 AU. The study includes an evaluation of corrections to the CME rates, which include instrument duty cycles, visibility functions, mass detection thresholds, and geometrical considerations. The main results are as follows: (1) The frequency of occurrence of CMEs tends to track the solar activity cycle in both amplitude and phase; (2) the CME rates from different instruments, when corrected for both duty cycles and visibility functions, are reasonably consistent; (3) considering only longer-term averages, no one class of solar activity is better correlated with CME rate than any other; (4) the ratio of the annualized CME to solar wind mass flux tends to track the solar cycle; and (5) near solar maximum, CMEs can provide a significant fraction (i.e., ≈ 15%) of the average mass flux to the near-ecliptic solar wind.

Relationship of halo coronal mass ejections, magnetic clouds, and magnetic storms

Halo coronal mass ejections (CMEs) had been rarely reported in coronagraph observations of the Sun before the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) mission. Since mid-1996, however, the SOHO Large Angle Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO) instruments have observed many halo or partial-halo CMEs. A halo CME, especially when associated with solar activity near sun center, is important for space weather concerns because it suggests the launch of a potentially geoeffective disturbance toward Earth. During the post-solar minimum period from December 1996 to June 1997, we found that all six halo CMEs that were likely Earthward-directed were associated with shocks, magnetic clouds, and moderate geomagnetic storms at Earth 3–5 days later. The results imply that magnetic cloud-like structures are a general characteristic of CMEs. Most of the storms were driven by strong, sustained southward fields either in the magnetic clouds, in the post-shock region, or both. We discuss the characteristics of the halo events observed during this period, their associated signatures near the solar surface, and their usefulness as predictors of space weather at Earth.

Activity associated with the solar origin of coronal mass ejections

Solar coronal mass ejections (CMEs) observed in 1980 with the HAO Coronagraph/Polarimeter on the Solar Maximum Mission (SMM) satellite are compared with other forms of solar activity that might be physically related to the ejections. The solar phenomena checked and the method of association used were intentionally patterned after those of Munro et al.s (1979) analysis of mass ejections observed with the Skylab coronagraph to facilitate comparison of the two epochs. Comparison of the results reveals that the types and degree of CME associations are similar near solar activity minimum and at maximum. For both epochs, most CMEs with associations had associated eruptive prominences and the proportions of association of all types of activity were similar. We also found a high percentage of association between SMM CMEs and X-ray long duration events (LDEs), in agreement with Skylab results. We conclude that most CMEs are the result of the destabilization and eruption of a prominence and its overlying coronal structure, or of a magnetic structure capable of supporting a prominence.

The origin and development of the May 1997 magnetic cloud

A complete halo coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed by the SOHO Large-Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO) coronagraphs on May 12, 1997. It was associated with activity near Sun center, implying that it was aimed earthward. Three days later on May 15 an interplanetary shock and magnetic cloud/flux rope transient was detected at the Wind spacecraft 190 RE upstream of Earth. The long enduring southward magnetic fields associated with these structures triggered a geomagnetic storm. The CME was associated with a small coronal arcade that formed over a filament eruption with expanding double ribbons in Hα emission. The flare was accompanied by a circular EUV wave, and the arcade was flanked by adjacent dimming regions. We surmise that these latter regions marked the feet of a flux rope that expanded earthward into the solar wind and was observed as the magnetic cloud at Wind. To test this hypothesis we determined key parameters of the solar structures on May 12 and compared them with the modeled flux rope parameters at Wind on May 15. The measurements are consistent with the flux rope originating in a large coronal structure linked to the erupting filament, with the opposite-polarity feet of the rope terminating in the depleted regions. However, bidirectional electron streaming was not observed within the cloud itself, suggesting that there is not always a good correspondence between such flows and ejecta.

Fast ejecta during the ascending phase of solar cycle 23: ACE observations, 1998–1999

We discuss fast ejecta observed at 1 AU during a period of increasing solar activity from February 5, 1998, to November 29, 1999. “Fast ejecta” are transient, noncorotating flows that move past the Earth during a day or more, with a maximum speed >600 km s−1. We identify two classes of fast ejecta at 1 AU: (1) magnetic clouds, whose local magnetic structure is that of a flux rope; and (2) “complex ejecta,” which are not flux ropes and have disordered magnetic fields. Nearly equal numbers of magnetic clouds and complex ejecta were found: four and five, respectively. The complex ejecta had weaker magnetic fields and higher proton temperatures than the magnetic clouds on average. The average β for the complex ejecta (0.25 ± 0.09) was larger than that for the magnetic clouds (0.06 ± 0.04). The complex ejecta and magnetic clouds had comparable speeds on average, namely, 558 ± 80 and 500 ± 63 km s−1, respectively. Using the duration of the stream and that of the counterstreaming electrons to measure the ejecta, the average time for the complex ejecta to move past ACE was 3 days, which is more than twice that for the magnetic clouds. All of the magnetic clouds contain some material with a high a/proton density ratio (>8%) and a density ratio of O7+/O6+ > 1. However, three of the five complex ejecta did not contain material with O7+/O6+ > 1, although four of the complex ejecta contained material with O7+/O6+ > 1. All of the magnetic clouds caused geomagnetic storms. Three complex ejecta produced no geomagnetic storms. The other two complex ejecta produced geomagnetic storms indirectly: one by driving a shock into the rear of a magnetic cloud and the other by amplifying southward fields in its leading edge and interaction region. Most of the magnetic clouds were associated with a single solar source, but nearly all of the complex ejecta could have had multiple sources. We find evidence in the solar observations that some of the complex ejecta could have been produced by the interaction of two or more coronal mass ejections (CMEs). At least three CMEs might have interacted to produce a large complex ejection that arrived at 1 AU on May 4, 1998. This complex ejection was overtaking and interacting with a magnetic cloud. We discuss several hypotheses concerning the structures and origins of complex ejecta, including the likely possibility that some complex ejecta are formed by a series of interacting CMEs of various sizes.

Multiple heliospheric current sheets and coronal streamer belt dynamics

The occurrence of multiple directional discontinuities in the coronal streamer belt at sector boundary crossings in the heliosphere, often ascribed to waves or kinks in the heliospheric current sheet, may alternatively be attributed to a network of extended current sheets from multiple helmet streamers with a hierarchy of sizes at the base of the corona. Frequent transient outflows from these helmets can account for a variety of signatures observed at sector boundaries, including ordered field rotations, planar magnetic structure, and sandwichlike plasma structure.

X-ray coronal changes during Halo CMEs

Using the Yohkoh soft X-ray images, we examine the coronal structures associated with “halo” coronal mass ejections (CMEs). These may correspond to events near solar disk center. Starting with a list of eleven confirmed halo CMEs over the time range from December 1996 through May 1997, we find seven with surface features identifiable in soft X-rays, with GOES classifications ranging from A1 to M1.3. These have a characteristic pattern of sigmoid → arcade development. In each of these events, the pre-flare structure disrupted during the flare, leaving the appearance of compact transient coronal holes. The four remaining events had weak or indistinguishable signatures in the X-ray images. For the events for which we could see well-defined coronal changes, we confirm our previous result that the estimated mass loss inferred from the soft X-ray dimming is a small fraction of typical CME masses [Sterling & Hudson 1997].

Coronal X-ray enhancements associated with Hα filament disappearances

A survey of soft X-ray images from Skylab has revealed a class of large-scale transient X-ray enhancements in the lower corona which are typically associated with the disappearance of Hα filaments away from active regions. Contemporary with the Hα filament disappearance, X-ray emitting structures appeared at or near the filament location with shape and size resembling the filament. Eventually these structures faded, but the filament cavity was no longer obvious. Typically the peak of the X-ray event lagged the end of the filament disappearance by tens of minutes. The durations of the coronal X-ray enhancements were considerably longer than the associated Hα filament disappearances. Major flare effects, such as chromospheric brightenings, typically were not associated with these X-ray events.One event analyzed quantitatively had a peak temperature between 1.8 and 2.7 × 106 K, achieved a peak density of ≈109 cm−3 and resulted in an enhancement in the plasma pressure over the conditions of the preexisting coronal cavity of at least a factor of 7. The mass of the coronal X-ray emitting material was about 10% that of the preexisting filament and the thermal energy of the coronal event was on the order of 1029 erg, about 10% of the mechanical energy of the Hα filament eruption. The event appeared to cool by radiative losses and not by thermal conduction. It is likely that the coronal enhancements are caused by heating of an excess of previously cooler material, either from the filament itself, or by compression of coronal material by a changing magnetic field.