David G. Loomis

Intermodal competition in local telecommunications markets

Abstract In this study, we model local competition between Incumbent Local Exchange Carriers (ILECs) and Competitive Local Exchange Carriers (CLECs) and explicitly account for competitive effects from wireless service and high-speed connections. We develop and estimate a pooled model of local competition using both cross-sectional and time series data from published FCC and other governmental sources at the state level. We find that there is substantial competition between ILECs and CLECs and that wireless and high-speed services adversely affect ILEC lines. We conclude that the local market definition should be expanded for purposes of deregulation.

Diffusion of Forecasting Principles through Books

We evaluated 18 forecasting books to determine the extent to which they incorporate forecasting principles. The authors who have contributed to Principles of Forecasting have identified 139 principles. On average, we found that only 19 percent of the 139 forecasting principles were mentioned in the books reviewed. The weakest coverage is in the areas of collecting data, assessing uncertainty, and presenting forecasts. Even in the areas of best coverage (setting objectives, preparing data, and implementing quantitative models), only one-third of the principles were mentioned. We found that none of the 18 books incorporated very many of the 139 forecasting principles. The highest rated book mentions only 47 principles.

Active Market Share: measuring competitiveness in retail energy markets

Abstract As retail electric and gas markets deregulate, market share measurement becomes critical for marketers, regulators, and incumbent utilities. Yet traditional market share measures miss important features of these network industries. In this paper we model provider choice in network industries and develop two alternate market share measures—The Active Market Share (AMS) and the New Mover Market Share (NMMS), that are based on ‘active demand’. These measures are shown to provide more accurate real-time measures of market activity. The NMMS is a special case of the AMS which is easy to measure empirically. Numerical simulations are used to provide comparisons between each measure over time. Both the AMS and NMMS will be important tools for anyone interested in measuring the competitiveness of deregulating markets.

Principles for Teaching Economic Forecasting

A forecasting class can be a vital addition to the economics curriculum so that economics graduates will be prepared to meet the demand for forecasting skills required by employers. A previous article (Loomis and Cox, 2000) provides an outline of how forecasting fits into the economics curriculum and what should be taught in an economic forecasting class. Yet recognising the need for such a class and providing the right content is only part of the solution. Proper pedagogy is essential to the success of a forecasting course. This article provides principles on how to teach microeconomic forecasting in a way that will enhance student learning.

Competition in Local Telecommunications

The Telecommunications Act of 1996 created a framework for competition in local telecommunications. Under its rules and under the jurisdiction of state regulatory authorities, competitive local telephone companies were to gain access to some or all parts of the incumbents network through known wholesale tariffs and offer retail local telephone service. As customers adopt other technologies for communications–mobile wireless service, broadband for email, messaging, and information retrieval–additional competitive pressures are put on the core voice telephone market. The substitution of usage and access from local telephony to other modes of communication is regarded as intermodal competition and is the subject of this paper. This study concerns local telecommunications competition between incumbent and competitive service providers in the United States. In addition to measuring competition from within the wireline market, we find significant intermodal competitive impacts resulting from wireless and high-speed development. We report empirical results from an econometric model that measures line loss impacts between carriers and the effects of wireless and high-speed services on the wireline market. The paper offers interpretation of the strategic and policy implications of these results.

Offshore Wind Jobs and Economic Development Impacts in the United States: Four Regional Scenarios

This report uses the offshore wind Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (JEDI) model and provides four case studies of potential offshore deployment scenarios in different regions of the United States: the Southeast, the Great Lakes, the Gulf Coast, and the Mid-Atlantic. Researchers worked with developers and industry representatives in each region to create potential offshore wind deployment and supply chain growth scenarios, specific to their locations. These scenarios were used as inputs into the offshore JEDI model to estimate jobs and other gross economic impacts in each region.

U. S. Broadband Pricing and Alternatives for Internet Service Providers

One facet contributing to the growth in demand for Internet services is the rise of residential broadband in the United States.1 While broadband access to Internet functionality has long been available to businesses at reasonably affordable prices, only within the last few years has this access become available widely to the residential consumer at affordable rates. In most areas, two technologies are being used to provide broadband Internet access at present: cable modems and xDSL. Current rates for cable modem service are generally between

Forecasting New Products and the Impact of Competition: An Overview of Part II

39.95–49.95 per month and over 150 cable companies currently offer cable modem services in the North America.2 As of February 2000, Kinetic Strategies estimated that cable modem customers had reached over 2 million and that providers were adding an additional 5000 customers per day.3 TeleChoice, Inc. has reported that, as of the first quarter of 2000, 880,000 people had subscribed to xDSL service.4 The Appendix provides further information on xDSL and cable modem rollouts. In recent months, much attention has been focused on the various technologies used to provide broadband services. Strengths and weaknesses of these technologies have been examined and strategists and visionaries have shed much ink putting forth their views on which technology will triumph.

Are fluctuations in coal consumption transitory or permanent? Evidence from a panel of US states

In telecommunications, as in other industries, the forecasting role is of prime importance to good planning and decision-making. Local area or wire center forecasts are used as input to the engineers as they design and plan the network and revenue forecasts provide budgeting information to finance groups. Similarly, product managers and marketers forecast product revenues and costs to ensure product profitability. Indeed, it is hard to conceive of a firm functioning without the use of formal or informal forecasts (For a general discussion of the importance of forecasting, see Loomis and Cox (1999).)