David G. Tarr

Quantifying the Uruguay Round

The effects of the Uruguay Round are quantified using a numerical general equilibrium model which incorporates increasing returns to scale, 24 regions, 22 commodities, and steady state growth effects. We conclude that the aggregate welfare gains from the Round are in the order of

Trade liberalization, product variety and growth in a small open economy: a quantitative assessment

96 billion per year in the short run, but could be as high as

Trade liberalization, poverty and efficient equity

171 billion per year in the long run after capital stocks have optimally adjusted. Despite these global gains, we identify some developing countries that lose from the Round in the short run. In the long run, almost all gain, and the Round will allow developing countries to gain further through their own unilateral liberalisation.

Foreign direct investment in services and the domestic market for expertise

Abstract We develop a numerical growth model that quantifies the welfare effects of trade liberalization. Additional intermediate input varieties provide the engine of growth and dramatically magnify the welfare gains from trade liberalization. In our central model, a 10% tariff cut leads to a 10.6% estimated gain in Hicksian EV. Systematic sensitivity analysis shows that there is virtually no chance of a welfare increase less than 3%, but a 6.6% chance of a welfare gain greater than 18%. We show that complementary reforms are crucial to fully realize the potential gains from the trade reform.

The Impact of Liberalizing Barriers to Foreign Direct Investment in Services: The Case of Russian Accession to the World Trade Organization

Even if trade liberalization results in aggregate welfare gains over all households, it is possible that the poorest households could lose. We illustrate two approaches to designing trade liberalization in Turkey which ensure that the poor will not lose. The first approach uses direct compensation to losers. The second approach uses limited policy reform, where exceptions to the across-the-board reform are chosen to meet the equity goal. In each case, we map out some of the efficiency costs of attaining these equity goals so as to inform policy makers about the least costly way of attaining them.

Increased Competition and Completion of the Market in the European Union: Static and Steady State Effects

A growing body of evidence suggests that the close availability of diverse business services is important for economic growth. Producer services such as managerial and engineering consulting can provide specialized knowledge to help domestic firms develop at lower unit cost. But these intermediate services are often nontraded, or costly to trade, which may be one reason that cities and industrial complexes form and economic performance differs across regions. Because services are costly to trade, foreign services are best transferred through foreign direct investment. This has important implications for public policy. Policies that affect foreign direct investment differ considerably from those that affect trade in goods. The authors develop a model of services, results from which show that: A) Liberalizing restraints on inward foreign direct investment has a powerful positive impact on the income and welfare of the importing country. The impact is much stronger than in traditional competitive models of trade in goods. B) Policies to protect domestic skilled labor against competition from imported services can have the perverse effect of lowering returns to domestic skilled labor-because while imported services economize on the use of domestic skilled labor (compared with domestic service industries), the positive effects on scale and productivity in the downstream industry can be powerful enough that the real wages of domestic skilled labor rise after the liberalization of foreign direct investment in service industries. In other words, domestic skilled labor and foreign direct investment are partial-equilibrium substitutes in the model but are typically general-equilibrium complements. C)The increase in the variety of imported services leads to increased total factor productivity in downstream industries, but the relative impact on downstream industries depends on how intensively they use intermediate services. The differential in effects on productivity in the production of final goods can be strong enough that permitting foreign direct investment can actually affect whether a good is exported rather than being imported. Policymakers should be aware that protection of a domestic service industry affects different constituencies differently. Although domestic capital owners may be adversely affected by foreign direct investment, domestic skilled workers in the industry are likely to see demand for their skills-and their real wages-rise. Moreover, downstream industries that use the service unambiguously benefit from foreign direct investment and their expansion can be surprisingly strong.

Regional, multilateral, and unilateral trade policies on MERCOSUR for growth and poverty reduction in Brazil

In this paper a computable general equilibrium model of the Russian economy is used to assess the impact of accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO), which encompasses improved market access, Russian tariff reduction, and reduction of barriers against multinational service providers. It is assumed that foreign direct investment in business services is necessary for multinationals to compete well with Russian business services providers, but cross-border service provision is also present. The model incorporates productivity effects in both goods and services markets endogenously, through a Dixit-Stiglitz framework. It is estimated that Russia will gain about 7.2% of the value of Russian consumption in the medium term from WTO accession and up to 24% in the long run. It is also estimated that the largest gains to Russia will derive from liberalization of barriers against multinational service providers. Piecemeal and systematic sensitivity analysis shows that the results are robust. Copyright

Morocco's free trade agreement with the EU: A quantitative assessment

We model the effects of completion of the internal market in the European Union on trade, production and market structure. The impetus for change comes from the removal of border costs, as well as increased competition from the greater ability of EU buyers to substitute among the products of different EU producers. In turn, this increased competition arises from the single market program on standards, government procurement, and dynamic learning effects. Removing the border costs results in relatively small welfare gains. Increased competition more than doubles the estimated benefits, and the steady state growth effect more than quadruples the welfare gains.

WELFARE COSTS OF U.S. QUOTAS IN TEXTILES, STEEL AND AUTOS

The authors estimate that the Free Trade Agreement of the Americas (FTAA), the EU-MERCOSUR agreement, and multilateral trade policy changes will all be beneficial for Brazil. The Brazilian government strategy of simultaneously negotiating the FTAA and the EU-MERCOSUR agreement, while supporting multilateral liberalization through the Doha Agenda, will increase the benefits of each of these policies. The authors estimate that the poorest households typically gain roughly three to four times the average for Brazil from any of the policies considerethe United States protects its most highly protected markets. Both the FTAA and the EU-MERCOSUR agreements are net trade-creating for the countries involved, but excluded countries almost always lose from the agreements. The authors estimate that multilateral trade liberalization of 50 percent in tariffs and export subsidies results in gains to the world more than four times greater than either the FTAA or the EU-MERCOSUR agreement. This shows the continued importance to the world trading community of the multilateral negotiations.

The Economics of Customs Unions in the Commonwealth of Independent States

Abstract Using an applied general equilibrium model, we find that the EU-Morocco free trade area (FTA) will increase Moroccan welfare by about 1.5% of its GDP, showing that trade diversion is not dominant. The gains increase to about 2.5% of GDP if Morocco adds trade liberalization with the rest of the world while adjustment costs are only slightly higher, partly reflecting the absence of trade diversion with global liberalization. We show what are the key modeling assumptions and parameter choices that affect the estimates in models of this type, employing systematic sensitivity analysis as well as graphical exposition.