David Griggs

Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis

Summary for policymakers Technical summary 1. The climate system - an overview 2. Observed climate variability and change 3. The carbon cycle and atmospheric CO2 4. Atmospheric chemistry and greenhouse gases 5. Aerosols, their direct and indirect effects 6. Radiative forcing of climate change 7. Physical climate processes and feedbacks 8. Model evaluation 9. Projections of future climate change 10. Regional climate simulation - evaluation and projections 11. Changes in sea level 12. Detection of climate change and attribution of causes 13. Climate scenario development 14. Advancing our understanding Glossary Index Appendix.

Climate change 2001: The scientific basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

The earth’s climate system has demonstrably changed since the pre-industrial era, with some of these changes attributable to human activities. The consequences of climate change pose a serious challenge to policy-makers. Hence they need an objective source of information about climate change, its impacts and possible response options. Recognising this, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Environmental Programme jointly established the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 1988. The terms of reference of the IPCC include:

Policy: Sustainable development goals for people and planet

Planetary stability must be integrated with United Nations targets to fight poverty and secure human well-being, argue David Griggs and colleagues.

Sustainable development goals for people and planet

Planetary stability must be integrated with United Nations targets to fight poverty and secure human well-being, argue David Griggs and colleagues.

An integrated framework for sustainable development goals

The United Nations (UN) Rio+20 summit committed nations to develop a set of universal sustainable development goals (SDGs) to build on the millennium development goals (MDGs) set to expire in 2015. Research now indicates that humanitys impact on Earths life support system is so great that further global environmental change risks undermining long-term prosperity and poverty eradication goals. Socioeconomic development and global sustainability are often posed as being in conflict because of tradeoffs between a growing world population, as well as higher standards of living, and managing the effects of production and consumption on the global environment. We have established a framework for an evidence-based architecture for new goals and targets. Building on six SDGs, which integrate development and environmental considerations, we developed a comprehensive framework of goals and associated targets, which demonstrate that it is possible, and necessary, to develop integrated targets relating to food, energy, water, and ecosystem services goals; thus providing a neutral evidence-based approach to support SDG target discussions. Global analyses, using an integrated global target equation, are close to providing indicators for these targets. Alongside development-only targets and environment-only targets, these integrated targets would ensure that synergies are maximized and trade-offs are managed in the implementation of SDGs.

Sustainable urban systems: Co-design and framing for transformation

Rapid urbanisation generates risks and opportunities for sustainable development. Urban policy and decision makers are challenged by the complexity of cities as social–ecological–technical systems. Consequently there is an increasing need for collaborative knowledge development that supports a whole-of-system view, and transformational change at multiple scales. Such holistic urban approaches are rare in practice. A co-design process involving researchers, practitioners and other stakeholders, has progressed such an approach in the Australian context, aiming to also contribute to international knowledge development and sharing. This process has generated three outputs: (1) a shared framework to support more systematic knowledge development and use, (2) identification of barriers that create a gap between stated urban goals and actual practice, and (3) identification of strategic focal areas to address this gap. Developing integrated strategies at broader urban scales is seen as the most pressing need. The knowledge framework adopts a systems perspective that incorporates the many urban trade-offs and synergies revealed by a systems view. Broader implications are drawn for policy and decision makers, for researchers and for a shared forward agenda.

Promoting New Links Between Energy and Meteorology

T he growing body of knowledge and experience in weather and climate risk management in the energy industry has spurred a rapidly growing research interest at the nexus between weather, climate, and energy (Troccoli 2010; Troccoli et al. 2010; Ebinger and Vergara 2011; Marquis 2011). Although this increased attention has been stimulated by a renewed and fervent interest in renewable energy sources, weather and climate information is also critical to managing the energy supply from other energy sectors (e.g., offshore oil operations) as well as understanding and estimating energy demand. Until recently, such applied research was discussed in specialized sessions during conferences organized by industry-specific organizations related to wind energy (e.g., American Wind Energy Association), solar energy [e.g., Solar Power and Chemical Energy Systems (SolarPACES)], and meteorology (e.g., European Meteorological Society). To take advantage of the substantial overlap between these energy activities and their use of weather and climate information, the International Conference Energy and Meteorology (ICEM) 2011 (www.icem2011.org/) was convened in Queensland, Australia. The objective was to provide a dedicated forum where scientists, engineers, economists, policy makers, and other specialists and practitioners involved in research or implementation activities at the intersection between weather, climate, and energy could discuss recent research findings and emerging practices ranging from operational activities to longterm investment planning and to policy making. Such discussions were framed within the context of all energy sector uses, including climate change mitigation and weather/climate risk management practices. The four expected outcomes of this conference were as follows:

Challenges of diverse knowledge systems in landscape analysis of the Murray–Darling Basin, Australia

Geographic information systems are a means to develop a common framework for the integration of a range of perspectives into natural resources management decisions. The incorporation of these perspectives presents more than a technical challenge—diverse knowledge systems make demands on the structure of geodatabases, the ways in which data are collected, held and interrogated, and the choices around which types of knowledge can and should be incorporated. Here, we investigate these questions in the context of Indigenous Yorta Yorta knowledge contributions to the management of a sensitive region of the Murray–Darling Basin in Australia. Management of the Barmah-Millewa region and its natural resources is governed by a wide array of sometimes inconsistent policies with differing regulatory frameworks and management foci. We find that (1) appropriate collection, management and database design protocols require substantive intellectual property protections and (2) once in place, spatial analysis can support management decisions without revealing sensitive information. Importantly, these protocols support the effective and respectful participation of the Yorta Yorta community in management of this ecologically, economically and culturally important region.

Sustainable development goals for people and planet: Policy

Planetary stability must be integrated with United Nations targets to fight poverty and secure human well-being, argue David Griggs and colleagues.

Towards a contraction and convergence target based on population life expectancies since 1960

This paper explores a finding that emerged in the early phases of a multidisciplinary project applying population health and psychology to issues of social progress and sustainability. Across 180 countries and half a century of data, the levels of carbon emissions per capita that maximise life expectancy fall within a tight band averaging only 6.6 tonnes—considerably less than wealthier countries emit per person. Various tests fail to break down the curves and, although the authors remain cautious, the stability since 1960 offers implications for the carbon budget leading up to 2050. This is the first time these curves have been contextualised against established climate science, with timely implications for international negotiations on sustainability and development.